Heineken Cup Final 2013

Heineken Cup 2013 Final

The average points difference in previous finals is 7, with 12 of 17 contests being decided by that margin or less. The 28 point margin last season was comfortably the highest, with the next being by 16 in 2006/7.

The average for total match points is 39, with the last 2 seasons seeing more than 50 points. The highest scoring game saw 64, when Leicester beat Stade Francais 34-30 with the fewest occurring in the 9-8 Northampton win over Munster.

This is the 4^th time it has been an all French final, the others all featured Toulouse – with a 22-17 win over Perpignan in 2003, 18-12 (after extra time) against Stade Francais in 2005 and 21-19 over Biarritz in 2010.

Clermont were 2^nd seed this season– a rank that has won the competition 7 times. Toulon were seeded 3^rd, a position that lifted the trophy 5 times.

There is guaranteed to be a new winner engraved on the cup this season. Of the 36 Finalists, 16 have been French, with 10 from England, 9 from Ireland and the 1 Welsh representation. There have been 6 winners each from France, Ireland and England now.

18 of the 36 finalists have either been Leicester, Toulouse, Leinster or Munster. Those 4 sides have won 11 titles and this is only the 3^rd final to occur with at least 1 of them not present (others were Ulster vs Colomiers in 1999 and Bath vs Brive in 1998).

Clermont and Toulon are the 15^th and 16^th sides to reach the final.

The ERC website lists multiple Heineken Cup winners as:

Heymans – Brive in 1997 and Toulouse in 2003, 2005 and 2010

Carbonneau – Toulouse 1996 and Brive, 1997

Mendez – Bath Rugby, 1998 / Northampton Saints, 2000

Eoin Reddan – Wasps, 2007 and Leinster  2011, 2012

Skrela – (Toulouse in 2010) and Hines ( Leinster in 2011) are at Clermont squad while Elsom –(Leinster 2009), Michalak (Toulouse 2003 / 2005) and Shaw (Wasps 2004 and 2007) are at Toulon.

The first four Heineken Cup winning captains were backs – Emile Ntamack (Toulouse – 1996), Alain Penaud (Brive – 1997), Andy Nicol (Bath – 1998) and David Humphreys (Ulster – 1999).

But since 1999, every team that has won the Heineken Cup has been captained by a forward – Pat Lam (Northampton Saints – 2000), Martin Johnson (Leicester Tigers – 2001, 2002), Fabien Pelous (Toulouse – 2003, 2005), Lawrence Dallaglio (London Wasps – 2004, 2007) and Anthony Foley (Munster – 2006) Paul O’Connell  (Munster 2008), Leo Cullen (Leinster 2009,2011,2012) Thierry Dusautoir (Toulouse 2010)

 That run will change with both skippers on Saturday being backs.

 

Match Preview

Despite Mourad Boudjellal’s best attempts to characterise Clermont as a monster and an unstoppable steamroller on course for a domestic and European double, there is an absence of a real underdog in this clash. Think Goliath against Goliath instead.

Separated by 1 point at the summit of the Top 14, Clermont won 19 of their 26 league matches by a rate of 30-16, while their opponents were victorious in 18 games by 30-18. On that basis, the outright value lies with Toulon at 2.62 rather than the 1.57 around for the Clermont.

Both sides have put together some impressive stats in this competition with Clermont averaging 142 passes a game, along with 123 carries for 521 metres, 21 defenders beaten, 9 clean breaks, 19 offloads, 103 tackles (13 missed) and 78 rucks won (3 lost).  They’ve won the 8 games so far by 33-11.

Toulon have won 7 of their 8 matches by 27-15 and also averaged 142 passes, with 114 carries for 422 metres, 17 defenders beaten, 10 clean breaks, 14 offloads, 81 tackles (10 missed) and 74 rucks won (4 lost).

They are also the only 2 sides not to concede a try between 21-40 minutes in the tournament this season.

The Vulcans have won 13 of their previous 16 Heineken Cup games by a rate of 32-11 and led at halftime in 14 of them.  They’ve won 6 of the last 10 meetings with Toulon by a 23-18 and led at the break in 7 of them. It’s also worth noting that 7 of those clashes were decided by a margin of 7 points or less.

Looking at Toulon’s last 7 knockout games – in the 2012 Amlin Cup Semi-Final, Final, the Top 14 play-off, Semi-final and Final and this season’s Heineken Cup contests, they have only scored the 2 tries and conceded 3.  They’ve gone 258 minutes without a try in the competition and only scored 2/23 tries away from home.  It certainly looks wise to back ‘no try’ for them, though 2.5 isn’t a massive price. Toulon have also trailed at halftime in their last 3 European games.

Like two heavyweight boxers with glass jaws, these teams mix great power with a sense of fragility. Both have form for losing finals. Clermont finally found a way to dispatch old rivals Leinster this year which would have given hope that this was to be their season – but the game against Munster perhaps revealed a weakness.

Without Rougerie and Vosloo to lead the offloads, too often they opted for the direct option and only scored 3 points in 63 minutes having started so strongly.A similar approach in this contest would play into Toulon’s hands. They have assembled a huge pack and their game plan is pretty clear. Consider that Saracens complained that they just wanted to “kick the ball rather than play the ball” and felt the attacking team was penalised too often.

If the scores are close late on, then Toulon will be favoured by many to edge it, with the media-friendly ending being a winning Jonny drop-goal. Indeed, when French sides reach knockout games, there are a collection of bets that prove popular – drop goal, yellow card, and ‘no try’ amongst them. A Wilkinson drop goal is 2.63 while over 9.5 points for the fly-half is 1.83.

I can see merit in backing Clermont halftime / Toulon fulltime at 11.0 based on the idea that Les Jaunards may start quickly before succumbing to their demons and that bet will act as a ‘saver’.

However my play will be on Clermont to win by a margin of 1-12 points at 2.25. They are one of the few sides able to match Bernand Laporte’s team for muscle but also possess a backline that need just the merest glimpse of an opening or turnover to pounce.

The chances that Saracens failed to capitalise on against Toulon will be taken by the more precise Vulcans and some of the try scorer prices are very tempting, even with the rain (and Toulon’s mean defence)

4.33 for Nalaga, 5.5 for Fofana and 8.5 for Rougerie are big prices

(I think the ‘no try’ price at 8.0 is now too short and whilst it made perfect sense for Saracens vs Toulon, I don’t really want to be opposing Clermont in this market. Think it will still be well backed though)

Vern Cotter’s side have entertained all season and I see their commitment to playing rugby the right way being rewarded. Anyone that watches Top 14 will have seen them offloading in the rain a few weeks ag, allbeit in a game with far less pressure. I think they will start strongly and will be on over 8.5 Clermont 1st half points.

 There have been 9 cards in the last 10 league meetings with 8/10 games seeing a card. Referee Alain Rolland has shown 9 cards in his 6 Heineken Cup games in 2013 with only 1 match going without a card. He has also officiated Toulon twice including their win over Saracens. I like 2 cards at 3.2 and his appointment of interest if you agree with Mark McCall’s summary that the attacking team was over-penalised

Clermont: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Aurélien Rougerie (c), 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Naipolioni Nalaga, 10 Brock James, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Gerhard Vosloo, 6 Julien Bonnaire, 5 Nathan Hines, 4 Jamie Cudmore, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Thomas Domingo.
Replacements:16 Ti’i Paulo, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Clement Ric, 19 Julien Pierre, 20 Julien Bardy, 21 Ludovic Radosavljevic, 22 David Skrela, 23 Regan King.

 

Toulon: 15 Delon Armitage, 14 Rudi Wulf, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Alexis Palisson, 10 Jonny Wilkinson (c), 9 Sébastien Tillous-Borde, 8 Chris Masoe, 7 Juan Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Danie Rossouw, 5 Nick Kennedy, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Carl Hayman, 2 Sebastien Bruno, 1 Andrew Sheridan.
Replacements: 16 Jean-Charles Orioli, 17 Gethin Jenkins, 18 Davit Kubriashvili, 19 Joe van Niekerk, 20 Steffon Armitage, 21 Maxime Mermoz, 22 Frederic Michalak, 23 Jocelino Suta.

Amlin Final 2013

The average winning margin in previous finals is 11 points, though the last 3 seasons have seen margins of 7, 1 and 3 points.

There has been an average of 47 points per match. However that can be split with a rate of 53 from the game between 1996/7 -2005/6 and 37 points from 2007 onwards.

Of the 34 Finalists, 18 have been French with 13 English, 2 Welsh and 1 Irish.

There have been 9 English winners, 6 French and 1 Welsh.

Saints, Wasps and Bath are currently the sides to have won both European trophies. Leinster can join that list.

 

 

 

Match preview

Before this season, Stade Francais had lost 5 Heineken Cup away knock out games by an average score of 21-32 and 3 in this competition by a rate 21-29.

Even accounting for the nature of the Top 14, their results on the road have also been very poor, with 28 defeats from their previous 30 league trips by an average score of 15-31 and only 5 wins in 50 attempts.

To reach the final, they’ve overcame their habitual away issues by winning at Bath and Perpignan – teams with an 82% and 85% home success rate respectively. The ‘reward’ is a visit to Leinster in Dublin.

The Irish side have won 23 of their last 25 home games in the Heineken Cup by a rate of 30-13 and 11/12 league games by 31-15. They scored 48 points at Wasps in this tournament’s quarter-final stage and then dispatched Biarritz by 44-16.

Leinster have won 12 of their last 13 European knockout games by 28-17 and their last 3 Finals by 31-18. Stade Francais in contrast were beaten in 2 Heineken Cup finals by 30-34 and 12-18 and in this trophy by 18-19.

Last season’s Heineken Cup final should serve as a warning that Leinster clearly have the ability and mind-set to ignore that unofficial rule about finals being tight, boring affairs. Given where the contest is taking place and how the side performed in the previous rounds, it’s easy to understand why they are clear favourites.

I do think though that a price of 7.0 and a +12 handicap are decent for the visitors. Porical’s boot will be crucial (and the 19.0 for man of match looks big if he’s going to be the kicker, ditto Parisse in the same market at 15.0) but also since the coaching change there seems to have been an injection of confidence into the Parisian team.

Leinster’s team selection suggests both that Joe Schmidt may have one eye on Ulster and also that the match against Glasgow last weekend took its toll. The strength of that bench can perhaps be used as an angle. Stade Francais have been outscored 2nd half in 11/12 league away games by a rate of -11 and by -19 in the last 5 matches. The 2nd half handicap is -6 and could be preferable to the main cap for Leinster backers.

Heaslip at 5.0 and Parisse at 7.5 will do for try scorers.
Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Fergus McFadden, 12 Ian Madigan, 11 Isa Nacewa, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Isaac Boss, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Rhys Ruddock, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Quinn Roux, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Sean Cronin, 1 Jack McGrath.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Jamie Hagan, 19 Leo Cullen, 20 Shane Jennings, 21 John Cooney, 22 Andrew Goodman, 23 David Kearney.

Stade Français: 15 Jerome Porical, 14 Jérémy Sinzelle, 13 Geoffrey Doumayrou, 12 Paul Williams, 11 Hugo Bonneval, 10 Jules Plisson, 9 Julien Dupuy, 8 Sergio Parisse , 7 Pierre Rabadan, 6 David Lyons, 5 Scott Lavalla, 4 Gerhard Mostert, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Laurent Sempere, 1 Aled de Malmanche.
Replacements: 16 Remi Bonfils, 17 Stanley Wright, 18 Jérémy Becasseau, 19 Anton van Zyl, 20 Lei Tomiki, 21 Waisea Nayacalevu, 22 Julien Arias, 23 Paul Warwick.

Super 15 – Round 14

Hurricanes vs Chiefs

The extended format of the Super Rugby tournament means squad rotation and managing injuries  have become increasingly important. Dave Rennie’s thwarted attempts to bring Casey Laulala led him to bemoan the issue of player exodus from New Zealand and depth available.

That inability to field a consistent side has likely been the reason his side have conceded an average of 28 points in the last 5 matches. They ended last season with defeats to both the Crusaders and Hurricanes and face those sides home and away in their run in.

The Canes have proved an infuriatingly unpredictable team to back so far, scoring plenty of points against the Kings, ‘Tahs and Cheetahs and then looking blunt in other matches. It seems that Naka Drotske’s comments about targeting them up front caused plenty of consternation and were used as motivation to front up last week.

Canes have won 7 of the last 11 meetings between the side by an average score of 26-21 and the last 7 at home by 31-20. The recent meetings, bar one exception in 2012, have tended to be close affairs with 5/6 decided by 6 points or less.

The Chiefs appear to be comfortable enough scoring early points (they’ve reached 10 points first in 9/11 games) but have let sides back into matches recently.  The hosts have led at halftime in their previous 10 home games won the race to 10 points in 8 matches so far -  but have been outscored 2^nd half in 7/11 games at all venues.

The hosts have scored 28 tries and conceded 33, while for the Chiefs – it’s 36 (most in competition) and 28 allowed. Even allowing for it being a NZ derby, the total tries line could be worth watching. No Smith and Kahui means both sides defensive leaders are missing.

Given home advantage and their record in the fixture, along with the Chiefs defensive issues – I think the +4 for the Canes and 2.5 outright price are generous.

There have been 8 cards shown in the last 9 Chiefs matches and 1 in the previous 4 Canes outings.

Canes have conceded 8/33 tries against front-rowers this season, while the Chiefs have scored 5/36 from there.  Will have a look at Afeaki anytime scorer at 12.0, who has scored 2 in 7 games this season.  Aki at 4.2 also looks big.

For the hosts, Vito at 6.5 is decent especially when you consider the Chiefs have conceded tries against backrowers recently (Sharks and Rebels).

Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Reynold Lee-Lo, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito (captain), 7 Jack Lam, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Reggie Goodes, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Tusi Pisi, 22 James Marshall.

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Ben Tameifuna, 18 Mike Fitzgerald, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 August Pulu, 21 Dan Waenga, 22 Save Tokula.

 

 

 

Rebels vs Stormers

The Rebels have lost 9 of their 11 games this season with the only victories coming against the Force, a side they’ve beaten on 5/6 occasions.

If you ignore those wins over the Perth side then the season can be split, firstly into a run of 5 games between rounds 2-6 when they lost by 15-36 and were heavily outscored each time in the 2^nd half, by an average of 19 points. Since round 8 though, the average score has been 30-34 and they’ve outscored teams after the break in the last 3.

Coach Damien Hill has lamented “I’m sick of bonus points” and it remains to be seen whether his side can go that extra step now and start winning these close games.

The Stormers were always going to be deemed favourites going into this match, however last season the Rebels were one of only 4 sides to score more than 20 points against them and are the only team in 27 matches to score 21 points in a half against them.

The visitors’ results have seen a pattern of 2 wins, then 2 losses (and repeat) so far. There has been an average score of 20-21 in their games though that is slightly inflated by high-scoring matches against the Chiefs and Brumbies in rounds 3-4. They’ve scored 37 of 50 points in their last 3 games in the 2^nd half and carried for a paltry 85 metres last week.

Rebels conceded first points in 10/11 games.

Allister Coetzee’s quote of “this is quite a good and exciting team and we’re looking forward to seeing how they perform on Friday” isn’t going to mask the fact that losing both Rynhardt Elstadt and Duane Vermeulen are big blows to the side.  Much will be made of no Beale or O’Connor for the hosts and the inclusion of Hegarty but the Jantjies / Schreuder partnership is hardly established. It’s also the case that ‘exciting’ is hardly a term that can be used for the Stormers.

The last 5 Rebels matches and 8 of 10 Stormers games have been decided by 7 point margins or less. I think +8 for the hosts is the play here and that 4.33 for a home win by 1-12 points is worth at least a quick look.

Inman is in good form, so the 7.5 for him to score anytime appeals.  Higginbotham is making a real impact for the Rebels and 4.5 is about right.

For the Stormers, de Jongh at 3.75 looks the best value – Habana and Aplon will rightly be popular but as both are under 3.0 am avoiding. Giant ‘winger’ Bekker is a best of 6.5 so is another usually good option with a price that doesn’t appeal this week.

Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Lachlan Mitchell, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham (c), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Luke Jones, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Jordy Reid, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Kimami Sitauti.

Stormers: 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (capt), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Louis Schreuder, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Deon Fourie, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Pat Cilliers, 2 Scarra Ntubeni, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 Gerbrandt Grobler, 19 Don Armand, 20 Nic Groom, 21 Gary van Aswegen, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.

 

 

 

 

Force vs Sharks

Sharks have lost 5 in a row and now 4 consecutive away games.  Since demolishing the Rebels, they’ve been behind at halftime in 5/6 games.  John Plumtree’s side have shown plenty of spirit to claw back deficits in recent contests against the Chiefs and Reds, but those 1^st half problems need resolving quickly.

The visitors have conceded 16 of 23 tries in the opening 40 minutes and have only scored the first match try once.

Force have lost 9/12 games this season but bar the defeat at the Brumbies have proved a tough opponent to put away.  Having racked up a plenty of air miles, their remaining matches are all at home.  Victory over the Crusaders and a draw against the Reds there should be enough to show they aren’t to be taken lightly despite their record.

Sharks have won 6/7 clashes with the Force by an average of 30-16.

A story in the week surfaced about Keegan Daniel believing there were too many Afrikaans players in the Sharks set up and being unhappy with cliques. The rumour has been shot down by the captain and the club so it will be interesting to see if it serves to bond the side for this game.

Force have scored 14/19 tries between 21-60 minutes and Sharks 18/22 which may assist for in-play betting.

Force conceded 13/27 tries against wingers which is a much higher rate than the league average and may point to Mvovo at 3.1

The Force backrow, led by Hodgson have been spiky all season and are up against plenty of grunt in Alberts and co. Ref James Leckie have given 3 cards in his 2 games this season, while the Force matches have yielded 9. It is worth noting that their 4 home games have seen 0 though.

Similar to the Rebels vs Stormers match, I am going to be backing the hosts with the points here (+3 available). Certainly don’t think a team that has lost 5 in a row should be priced as low as 1.57 away as they are in some places.

While the Force aren’t the most fashionable side to back, they have led at HT in 3 of their 4 home games.  Given those 1^st half issues that have plagued the Sharks, Force to lead at the break at 2.1 or the  HT/FT at 3.25 appeal.

(Sharks fans can always opt for a different angle and go Force HT / Sharks FT at 7.5. The Force have been outscored 2^nd half in all 4 home games)

Western Force: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Patrick Dellit, 13 Ben Jacobs, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Matt Hodgson (c), 5 Sam Wykes, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Heath Tessmann, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 James Hilterbrand, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Rory Walton, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Junior Rasolea, 22 Sam Norton-Knight.

Sharks: 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (c), 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Anton Bresler, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Monde Hadebe, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 19 Derick Minnie / Lubabalo Mtembu, 20 Jean Deysel, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Piet Lindeque.

 

 

Crusaders vs Blues

The 19 point defeat by the Blues at the start of the season was the biggest loss in 40 games for the Crusaders and highest margin against a fellow New Zealand side since the Blues 39-5 win back in 2003. Adequate revenge perhaps, for the 59-12 hammering in Christchurch last season – which was the visitors’ worst defeat in the competition.

Crusaders have won 8 of the last 11 meetings with the Blues by an average score of 29-20 and 7 of the previous 8 at home by 34-19. They’ve won their 4 home matches this season by 38-18 and since the 2010 season, it’s been 26/29 wins by a rate of 33-16 on their own patch.

Since the last time they met the Auckland side at home, they’ve averaged an impressive 1^st half average of +14 points in 8 matches, while the opening half has been highest scoring in 5 of the previous 6 meetings between the teams.

Blues have 6 remaining games and 4 of them are away. They’ve lost their last 3 away matches and have been outscored after the break each time, as well as in their last 3 games at all venues.  After racing to a 24-5 lead against the Rebels, there was clear disappointment shown post-match, at how the Melbourne side then took control.

The Crusaders have 4 home games remaining and can call upon 2 of their 3 main men in Read and Carter. There have also been hints that McCaw may return for the last 2 matches while the rumours of Blackadder taking the Scotland appear to have cooled.  It does look set up for a late Crusaders run at the conference and they will have a couple of motivated players that appear to be off the All Blacks radar.

The visitors have placed F Saili on the bench, likely due to fears of his defensive organisation but also perhaps to keep him grounded after the call up to the AB’s training camp.

Blues are a much improved side this season and their defeats have been by 7 points or less.  I like the idea of giving them a +9 point head start in this game and hoping that the usual home dominance is negated by both the fact it’s a derby and a negative Crusaders reaction to having a week off.

Frank (the tank) Halai is available at 3.0 to score anytime while Read at 4.5 is always worth a look.

Crusaders: 15 Tom Taylor, 14 Tom Marshall, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Dominic Bird, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Adam Whitelock, 22 Israel Dagg.

Blues: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Jackson Willison, 11 George Moala, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams (c), 4 Culum Retallick, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tim Perry.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Brendon O’Connor, 20 Jamison Gibson-Park, 21 Baden Kerr, 22 Francis Saili.

 

 

 

 

Tahs vs Brumbies

The Tahs have won 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of 6 home games by an average score of 26-22. All 6 of those home matches have been decided by a margin of 6 points or less.

They’ve lost the last 3 games with the Brumbies but won 9/11 clashes at home against them by a rate of 28-18. Brumbies won 10 of their last 13 Australian derbies by 25-13 and are unbeaten in 8.

The visitors are top of the conference but whilst they’ve only lost twice this season, the draws against Kings and Reds mean it’s 3 wins from their last 7 games. With the Reds starting to find form and memories of what happened last season, there will be a desire not to let their grip on the division slip.

Brumbies have scored 21/30 tries in 1^st half and have led at the break in 8 matches. They’ve scored first points in 9 games and the 1^st try in 10 contests. However after the break, they’ve been outscored in 6 of the last 8 games.  

The hosts lost in 8 rounds last season by less than a converted try and only outscored 2 teams in the 2^nd half. The late-earned victories over Chiefs and Stormers this year may suggest that the side has a greater confidence this term and belief in the system that Cheika has in place. 

On paper there appears to be a high chance of a styles clash and Jake White will have noted the hosts woes at the lineout.  At the risk of stating the obvious – would expect them to use Mogg’s hefty boot and look to play the match in the Tahs half. 

The hosts do have a fly-half in great form at the moment in Foley – who has scored 4 tries, assisted 10 while making 9 linebreaks and also assisting 10. Izzy Folau has scored 7 tries, with 110 runs for 1189m. The stats show 3 assists but he seems to have played a part in the vast majority of the Tahs scores.

Will opt for Tahs+1 in this one – they seem to be -1 at most firms and I think it will be a far different outcome to the hammering they took earlier in the season.

Another angle may be Brumbies HT / Tahs FT at 7.5 – that would capitalise on a number of the 2 sides’ different trends.

Folau at 3.25 and Speight at 3.0 both look reasonable prices for anytime scorers.

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau. 14 Cam Crawford, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Rob Horne, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Brendan McKibbin, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis (capt) 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Paddy Ryan, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Skelton, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Matt Lucas, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Peter Betham.

Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (c), 7 George Smith, 6 Peter Kimlin, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Siliva Siliva, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Fotu Auelua, 19 Colby Faingaa, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Robbie Coleman, 22 Pat McCabe.

 

 

 

Bulls vs Highlanders

Bulls have won all 5 home games this season by an average score of 33-19 and 16/20 games by 32-21 since they last met the Highlanders there.  

They’ve won 7/10 matches this season with the defeats coming away to sides currently ranked 6^th, 4^th and 1^st.  In both losses at the Reds and Brumbies there was late drama that the Bulls will feel cost them valuable points.

The hosts have scored 17/25 tries in the 2^nd half ,though the balance of when they score their points has been slightly evened out with strong opening halves against the Kings and Hurricanes recently.

They are still the only side not to concede a try in the opening quarter and have won the race to 10 points in 7/10 games (the Highlanders have only done so on 3 occasions). It’s also the case that the Bulls have outscored opponents 2^nd half in the last 6 matches.

The Highlanders revival lasted all of 1 game and the defeat at the Kings was their 12^th in 13 contests. They’ve lost their previous 6 away trips by an average of 15-29.

Highlanders do have a decent record against the Bulls, winning 11/17 meetings by 30-25 and 4/9 away by 31-34. There have been an average of 65 match points in this fixture and the visitors have allowed an average of 29 points this season.

Will be looking to back home points when the line is available and overs for tries.

Gear at 3.75 and Smith at 5.5 are both decent prices for try scorers.  

Bulls: 15 Jürgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Lionel Mapoe, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (c), 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Frik Kirsten, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Morné Mellet.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Grant Hattingh, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouchè, 22 Bjorn Basson.

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Tino Nemani, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Mose Tuiali’i, 7 John Hardie, 6 Joe Wheeler, 5 Jarrad Hoeata, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Chris King, 2 Andrew Hore (c), 1 Jamie Mackintosh.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Tony Woodcock, 18 Elliot Dixon, 19 TJ Ioane, 20 Fumiaki Tanaka, 21 Hayden Parker, 22 Jason Emery.

 

 

 

Cheetahs vs Reds

Cheetahs have won 3/5 home games by an average score of 28-24. Since the heavy defeat at the Chiefs, it’s been 7 wins from 9 games at a rate of 26-20. It’s worth noting they haven’t beaten a team ranked higher than 8^th in the ladder yet and their 3 remaining home games are against current top 5 sides.

The Reds coaching team had mentioned that fixing a faltering attack was the main plan for last week and 29 points in the opening half against the Sharks was a huge improvement, considering 42 points had been scored in the previous 3 rounds.

Reds won 4/5 games with the Cheetahs by 26-13 and the hosts have only scored 21 points combined in the last 3 meetings.

Cheetahs have scored 10 of their 26 tries in final 20 minutes which compares favourably to the Reds 3/25.

It is unlikely that Naka Drotske will highlight potential weaknesses of the opposition again, after his comments wound up the Hurricanes.  There are instances where teams get lured into playing the wrong game-plan, the Blues against Bulls earlier in the season is an example and I think you can include the Cheetahs last week. 

Having said they would keep it tight and take on the Canes up front, too often their play was loose, reverting back to previous bad habits. When they did use their forwards, the rewards were clear – with battering rams Strauss and Oosthuizen both carrying for over 40m and number 8 van der Walt making 110m (to go with his 14 tackles). If they were to make similar mistakes again this week, then a Reds outfit that showed they can go ‘coast to coast’ could cause problems.

Will take the Reds 1-10 at 3.2 and to win at 1.91 in this game.

There are a few try scorer options that appeal – Rhule at 3.3, Le Roux at 4.0 and Oosthuizen at 7.5 for the hosts and 3.1 for Davies and 6.5 for Genia all look good.  Given they all look big price, it will be worth checking the weather before kick off.

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Elgar Watts, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Lappies Labuschagne, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lood de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Ligtoring Landman, 19 Boom Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Rayno Benjamin.

Reds: 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Rod Davies, 13 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Eddie Quirk, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Ed O’Donoghue, 19 Jarrad Butler, 20 Beau Robinson, 21 Ben Lucas, 22 Ben Tapuai.

Aviva Premiership – Semi-Finals

Gaining a home semi-final has proved crucial for Premiership sides since the competition was altered. Of the 17 that have been hosted, 14 have been won by the home team.

The average points difference has been 14, but that drops to 5 when looking at the last 3 seasons. Interestingly in 2010 the margins were 2 and 9 points, 2011 – 2 and 8 points and 2012 – 2 and 9 points.

7 of the last 8 games at this stage have seen a margin of 3 points or less at half time.

You have to go back to 1997 for the last time the same quartet finished in the top 4 in consecutive seasons. It’s the 4^th season in a row that Leicester, Saracens and Northampton have reached this stage.

Leicester have reached 7 previous league Semi-Finals, winning all of them. They avoided that stage in 2005 due to topping the league, so have actually attended the last 8 finals – winning 3 of them.

Northampton have lost their 5 Semis while Saracens have been to 4 knockout games before, winning 2 of them and the final once.

Quins have won one of their two games at this stage, going on to win the final last season.

Leicester vs Harlequins

There are a few consistent Premiership trends that Quins most overcome to retain their mantle of champions, namely that Leicester win at home and Leicester win Semi-Finals.

The Tigers have reached the last 8 finals and have imposing 85% win rate at Welford Road. This season they’ve won 9 of 11 games on their own patch by a rate of 27-17, however the 2 losses were against title rivals Saracens and Harlequins. Having praised their home record, it’s significant that Leicester have in fact lost 6 of the last 8 games there against those 2 sides.

It’s been an interesting head to head record between Saturday’s opponents, with Quins winning 5 of 7 matches between 1987/8 and 1993/4, then losing 31 of the next 36 clashes, before collecting a run of 4 wins from the last 5 contests. Given that long period of Leicester dominance, it’s perhaps a surprise that Harlequins have the most league wins at Welford Road of all the Premiership sides, with 7.

Conor O’Shea has been highlighting Quins’ superiority in the stats this season, and his side have made the most passes (3308), carries (2556), metres gained (9227), defenders beaten (378), clean breaks (133) and offloads (271). It may be that this commitment to their style has cost them in both weariness and predictability to opposition, however they have shown this season they are capable of grinding out results too when required. It’s also true that losing plenty of players to International duty and being there to be shot down are unfamiliar issues – whereas Leicester have learnt how to manage those problems over time.

It sounds strange given how often home teams win in Semi-Finals, but being away may actually suit the visitors. Their best results in recent seasons have occurred away from the Stoop, be it winning away at Toulouse, Saracens, Stade Francais and or indeed Leicester. In contrast, they have lost big European clashes on their own patch to Leinster, Munster and were very close to being upset by a Northampton team missing a number of players last season at this point of the season.

Leicester have the emotional backstory of long serving players Castro and Murphy leaving / retiring as well as head coach Matt O’Connor departing for Leinster. They have a fine representation in the Lions touring party and Tom Youngs has just received the Premiership Player of the Year award. Both Ben Youngs and Tom Croft have hit a run of try scoring form while Anthony Allen continues to be the key component in both attack and defence. While Quins players that were on the fringe of the England set up (Robson, Lowe, Turner-Hall, Monye) have seen their International hopes limited, there are Leicester players such as Slater that have appeared on the radar and are gaining plenty of support.

It seems to be open season on skipper Robshaw at the moment with even the signing of Andy Saull for Newcastle ending up with a mention of his non-selection on the Lions tour (by John Wells). The appointment of Tom Wood for England tour captain and decision to rest him for the Argentina trip also saw Stuart Lancaster throw in a few comments about his role not being secure. Missing this match through injury just continues his bad couple of weeks.

Quins have led at halftime in 6 of the last 8 clashes with Tigers, by an average of 2 points. They’ve also outscored these opponents by an average of 7 points 2^nd half in the past 3 games.

Going back to the 2008/9 season (11 games), the 6 Leicester victories have all seen them outscore Quins 2^nd half, while the quartet of Harlequins wins and draw in that period saw them score the most points in the final 40 minutes.

The first half has been highest scoring in the last 5 clashes.

It’s worth noting that whilst Quins have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, the 33-43 Stoop defeat was the only time that Youngs and Flood were the Leicester halfbacks. There is a contrast between an in-form Chris Robshaw and Nick Evans directing a confident Quins side on a blazing hot day in the 2012 final and a trip to Welford Road in wet conditions with key players looking tired.

It is the case that having led the league all last season there was a pressure to reach the final that perhaps has been removed this time but the conditions and situation do still seem to point to favouring the hosts.

Based on the previous stats, any of Quins HT / Tigers FT at 7.5,  Quins +4 on the HT hcap or Quins to lead at the break at 3.0 may appeal.

Were it earlier in the season, a price of Quins to win at 3.75 and a +7 point handicap would have gratefully been lapped up but the home defeats against Wasps, Exeter and Munster have raised a few doubts, specifically about the tight 5 and Welford Road definitely isn’t a place to be going with those kind of concerns. The Wallace vs Salvi breakdown battle promises a lot and the young 7 did start when Quins won against these opponents in February.

However I’ve opted for the hosts by a margin of 1-12 at 2.38

Tom Williams and Danny Care both have decent scoring records against Leicester, with 5 in 10 and 3 in 10 respectively. Their prices of 4.5 and 5.5 may therefore appeal.

For the hosts, the in-form Youngs is available at 5.0 and Croft at 6.0

Leicester: 15 Mathew Tait, 14 Niall Morris, 13 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 12 Anthony Allen, 11 Vereniki Goneva, 10 Toby Flood (c), 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Jordan Crane, 7 Julian Salvi, 6 Tom Croft, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Graham Kitchener, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Logovi’i Mulipola.
Replacements: 16 Rob Hawkins, 17 Fraser Balmain, 18 Martin Castrogiovanni, 19 Steve Mafi, 20 Thomas Waldrom, 21 Sam Harrison, 22 George Ford, 23 Matt Smith.

Harlequins: 15 Mike Brown 14 Tom Williams, 13 George Lowe, 12 Tom Casson, 11 Ugo Monye, 10 Nick Evans, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nick Easter (c), 7 Luke Wallace, 6 Maurie Fa’asavalu, 5 George Robson, 4 Olly Kohn, 3 James Johnston, 2 Joe Gray, 1 Joe Marler.
Replacements: 16 Rob Buchanan, 17 Mark Lambert, 18 Will Collier, 19 Charlie Matthews, 20 Tom Guest, 21 Karl Dickson, 22 Ben Botica, 23 Ross Chisholm.

 

Saracens vs Northampton

The ‘wolfpack’ versus the proponents of the mantra ‘why not us’ promises an almighty forwards clash. Both sides have seen their style of play criticised as being one-dimensional and both have a pack that are happy to maul and bash their way to wins.

Saracens have won 15 of their last 18 league games, by a rate of 25-17 and their home games by an average score of 30-16. At their new stadium, its 5 league wins by 33-14 and the end of their season has been characterised by superiority in the 2^nd half, outscoring sides by an average of 11 points then in the final 8 games.

The hosts have won 14 of the last 17 league meetings with the Saints by an average of 23-19 and the same ratio at home by 24-18.  Sarries have also outscored Northampton 2^nd half in 7 of the last 8 meetings.

The last time Northampton won an away game in this fixture was the 2003/4 season. Saints started the season with 5 straight wins, saw a run of just 3 wins from 9 games and then finished strongly with 6 victories from the last 8 contests.

The stats they will be sick of seeing are 5 Semi-final defeats, a record of 16 losses from 18 meetings against their fellow top 4 sides and 22 defeats in 24 visits to those teams. Their last 6 trips to the top 4 have all seen a losing margin of 6 points or less and a 7 point margin in 7 of the last 10 games with Saracens

The psychology from the Northampton camp has been interesting this season, they have often mentioned how they are reacting to critics, however a top side that regularly loses knockout games and matches with title rivals is probably fair game for criticism. They’ve won 23/26 games against the rest of the league so accusations of being ‘flat track bullies’ will remain until they beat a side that finishes above them. Unlike other seasons however, they do have the chance to slip under the radar whilst Saracens are under the pressure of ending a season that promised so much with nothing.

It’s been a relative low scoring fixture, with the last 11 meetings averaging 37 total points and 31 in the last 4 clashes so it will be interesting to see whether the tense nature of a knockout game results in the trend continuing or the presence of that fast-paced artificial pitch overrides everything.

I do think the hosts are far too short to win this at just 1.36 and given the number of close games in the fixture’s history prefer a home win margin of 1-12 at 2.38 and 1-5 at 6.5. The return of Fraser has been negated by the loss of defensive lynchpin Barritt and this could be a lot closer than the head to head record implies. If it comes down to it though, I’d prefer to back the Saracens goal kicking options over their opponents.

Vunipola at 8.5 and Hartley at 10.0 would be usually be handy try scorer prices, as would 3.75 and 4.33 for the current try machines Strettle and Elliot.

Saracens: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Joel Tomkins, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 David Strettle, 10 Charlie Hodgson, 9 Neil de Kock, 8 Jackson Wray, 7 Will Fraser, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Alistair Hargreaves, 4 Steve Borthwick (c), 3 Matt Stevens, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Mako Vunipola.
Replacements: 16 John Smit, 17 Rhys Gill, 18 Carlos Nieto, 19 Mouritz Botha, 20 George Kruis, 21 Richard Wigglesworth, 22 Duncan Taylor, 23 Chris Wyles.

Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Ken Pisi, 13 James Wilson, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Jamie Elliott, 10 Stephen Myler, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Samu Manoa, 7 Tom Wood, 6 Calum Clark, 5 Christian Day, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Dylan Hartley (capt), 1 Soane Tonga’uiha.
Replacements: 16 Mike Haywood, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Tom Mercey, 19 Phil Dowson, 20 GJ Van Velze, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Ryan Lamb, 23 Tom May.

Pro 12 Semi-Finals 2013

Ulster vs Scarlets

Ulster finished top of the league with 17 wins at an average score of 26-16.

It’s possible to split their season into 3 sections – an opening run of 11 straight wins coming at a rate of 28-16, a down period of 2 wins from 7 matches from rounds 12-18 by an average of 21-18 and finally a strong end to the season of 4 victories by 31-14.

They won 9/11 home matches by an average of 29-14 and outscored teams in 18 of the 22 halves (by an average of 7 points 1^st half and 9 points 2^nd half).

Scarlets won 7 of 11 away matches this season by 17-20. They were ‘doubled’ in the league by Treviso, Ospreys and Ulster.

Ulster have won 5/6 home games against this opposition by 28-17 and 6 of the last 8 clashes at all venues by 25-19.

Ulster scored 7 of their 62 tries in the opening 20 minutes and Scarlets 5 of 41. The hosts conceded 7/33 in the same period and visitors just 3 of 37. Scarlets conceded 11 tries in the 1^st half which was the lowest tally in the league.

The time of 1^st try in the games between the sides this season was 28th and 44^th minute so there may be merit in backing time of 1^st try – after 17mins 30 secs at 1.83 and over 26 mins at 3.5

Ending the season with a 17-41 home loss to Treviso has cooled any interest in the Scarlets upset here, though a price of 8.0 does look big. Semi-finals are usually close, tight games however a look at the Pro 12 reveals an average winning margin of 14 points in the last 6 contests.

There was a reasonable sized points gap between the visitors and the rest of the top 4 on the table and that is reflected by a 10 point handicap for the match.

Whilst the Scarlets showed  a decent 1^st half defence this season, they were outscored 2^nd half by 13 points at the Ospreys, 14 at Treviso, 21 at Leinster and 24 at Ulster. Will have a play on Ulster -5 on the 2^nd half handicap rather than the main one.

There are some handy prices for try scorers available – with Bowe at 3.0, Trimble at 3.4, Payne at 4.0 and Olding at 4.33

For the visitors, North at 4.33, Liam Williams at 7.0 are both bigger than expected.

Ulster: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Stuart Olding, 11 Tommy Bowe, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Robbie Diack, 5 Dan Tuohy, 4 Johann Muller (c), 3 Declan Fitzpatrick, 2 Rory Best, 1 Tom Court.
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Callum Black, 18 Ricky Lutton, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Mike McComish, 21 Paul Marshall, 22 Michael Allen, 23 Peter Nelson.

Scarlets: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Andy Fenby, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Aled Davies, 8 Josh Turnbull, 7 Rob McCusker (capt), 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Johan Synman, 4 George Earle, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Phil John.
Replacements: 16 Emyr Phillips, 17 Rhodri Jones, 18 Jacobie Adriannse, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Sione Timani, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Owen Williams, 23 Gareth Owen.

 

 

Leinster vs Glasgow

The hosts won 17 of 22 games by an average of 27-18 and 10/11 at home by 33-14. They’ve won an impressive 55 of 60 regular season matches there by a rate of 29-14.

Glasgow managed 16 victories by an average score of 25-15 and 7/11 away by 22-15.

Leinster may have won the last 3 meetings (including at this stage last season) and 6/7 clashes at home by a rate of 27-15 but the last 5 games between the sides have been close, with margins of 6 points or less.

Leinster scored 63 tries this season and Glasgow 66, however the visitors only conceded 30 to the hosts 46.

There is an opportunity for the hosts to pick up a domestic / Amlin Cup double and really send off Joe Schmidt and Isa Nacewa in style.  They’ve had plenty of success in Semi-Finals but I don’t think the price of 1.2 is right.

Given their strong season and the margins in recent meetings, the 6.5 for Glasgow to win and +10 points do look big. That handicap would have covered in 20/22 Warriors matches this season and 38/40 over a longer period, as well as 8 of the last 10 clashes with Leinster.

As they aren’t being given much of a chance by the bookies, the anytime scorer prices for the visitors are quite big – with Matawalu at 6.0, Maitland at 4.0 and Strauss at 10.0 all looking decent. For the hosts, Heaslip at 4.5

Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Isa Nacewa, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Isaac Boss, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien/Shane Jennings, 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Leo Cullen (c), 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Jamie Hagan, 19 Quinn Roux, 20 Shane Jennings/Rhys Ruddock, 21 John Cooney, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Andrew Conway.

Glasgow: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Sean Lamont, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 DTH Van der Merwe, 10 Peter Horne, 9 Niko Matawalu, 8 Ryan Wilson (c), 7 John Barclay, 6 Josh Strauss, 5 Al Kellock, 4 Tim Swinson, 3 Jon Welsh, 2 Pat MacArthur, 1 Ryan Grant.
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Moray Low, 18 Ed Kalman, 19 Tom Ryder, 20 Rob Harley, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Ruaridh Jackson, 23 Mark Bennett

Top 14 play-offs

Toulouse vs Racing Metro

Toulouse won 17/26 league games this season by an average score of 27-19 and 12/13 at home by 35-16. A 18-19 loss against Perpignan in round 18 is their only defeat in 45 league matches on their own patch.

Racing Metro won 16 games this term by a rate of 20-17, finishing in 6^th spot with just 2 try bonus points, the fewest of the post-season teams.  They won 9 games in a row between rounds 14-22, a run that was halted by a home loss of 26-27 against Toulouse. On the road they won a healthy 7/13 games by 19-19.

The visitors have lost 6/7 meetings with Toulouse by an average score of 25-28 and the last 4 away by 24-32. Looking at the last 8 clashes, 6 have been decided by a margin of 7 points or less.

The ending of an Empire used to be heralded by barbarians at the gates, however in the Top 14 it’s  usually signified by the opening of a gold-plated cheque book elsewhere.  Murray Kinsella’s piece on the changes at Racing Metro is worth a read here http://touchlinerugby.com/2013/05/09/racing-ready-for-sexton/

Jacky Lorenzetti ‘s backing has seen a very strong recruitment drive with Lydiate, Roberts, Sexton, Kruger, Mujati, Tonga’uiha, Lauret, Andreu, Plante all signing up for next season.

Clermont and Toulon both finished well ahead of Toulouse in the league and are meeting in the Heineken Cup final. The hosts failed to make the Quarter-Final stage and with Guy Noves mentioning that he had considered potential successors there are signs that an era of red and black dominance is coming to an end.

Backing the away side in a Top 14 clash is a brave tactic, and when it involves opposing Toulouse in a knockout game then you are probably going to be in a minority – but I do like Racing Metro +8 in this one. They’ve proved they can win away this season and having played in low-scoring games all season (32 tries scored / 28 conceded) shouldn’t find the tense nature of the play-offs that different. The 4.33 price for an away win looks a little big too.

Last season ‘no try’ was profitable in the Top 14 knockout games so will have a look at the 17.0 price and under 2.5 tries at 2.2

There have been 8 cards shown in the last 8 games between the sides.

Stade Toulousain: 15 Clement Poitrenaud, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Yannick Jauzion, 12 Gael Fickou, 11 Maxime Medard, 10 Luke McAlister, 9 Jean Marc Doussain, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Jean Bouilhou, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Yoann Maestri, 3 Census Johnston, 2 William Servat , 1 Vasil Kakovin
Replacements: 16 Jaba Bregvadze, 17 Gurthro Steenkamp, 18 Romain Millo chlusky, 19 Yannick Nyanga, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Lionel Beauxis, 22 Yann David, 23 Jean Batiste Poux.

Racing-Métro 92: 15 Juan Martin Hernandez, 14 Juan Imhoff, 13 Henry Chavancy, 12 Fabrice Estebanez, 11 Sereli Bobo, 10 Jonathan Wisniewski, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Masinivanua Matadigo, 7 Bernard le Roux, 6 Antoine Battut, 5 Francois van der Merwe, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Luc Ducalcon, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 1 Julien Brugnaut.
Replacements:16 Thomas Bianchin, 17 Eddy Ben arous, 18 Alvaro Galindo, 19 Jacques Cronje, 20 Sebastien Descons, 21 Alexandre Dumoulin, 22 Virimi Vakatawa, 23 Salemane Sa.

Castres vs Montpellier

Castres won 11 of 13 home matches this season by an average score of  29-17 and have won 45/53 league games on their own turf with 4 draws and just the 4 defeats going back to 2009/10.

Montpellier picked up wins in 5 of their 13 away trips, by a rate of 17-25.

Castres have won 5 of the last 7 meetings by 25-19 and 4/5 at home by 29-21. The sides met in the 2010/11 play-offs when Bustos-Moyano won a kicking duel with Teulet to record a 17-18 upset.

The hosts sought and obtained revenge at the same stage the next season with a 31-15 win that saw a Tekori red card, 33 penalties conceded and the kicking accuracy of Bernard and Teulet proving decisive.

The plan this season was to oppose Castres after it became clear that coaches Travers and Labit would be leaving and that increased when the rumours of Kockott wanting to follow them out the door began. However, they are still very strong at home and the 1-12 margin at 2.4 is about right for them.

There have been 24 cards in 13 Montpellier away games and 18 in 13 Castres home ties.  Also 11 cards in the last 10 meetings with 6 given out in the 2 play-off games. If possible 2 or more cards and even a red are worth considering.

Nagusa is on the list of players to back for anytimer scorer, whenever they are available at greater than 3.0…so the 3.3 is going to be tempting.

Castres: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Romain Martial, 13 Paul Bonnefond, 12 Seremaia Baï, 11 Marc Andreu, 10 Remi Talès, 9 Rory Kockott, 8 Antoine Claassen, 7 Yannick Caballero, 6 Jan de bruin Bornman, 5 Rodrigo Capo Ortega, 4 Christophe Samson, 3 Karena Wihongi, 2 Brice Mach, 1 Saimone Taumoepeau.
Replacements: 16 Mathieu Bonello, 17 Mihaïta Lazar, 18 Matthias Rolland, 19 Ibrahim Diarra, 20 Thierry Lacrampe, 21 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 22 Romain Teulet, 23 Michael Coetzee.

Montpellier: 15 Benoît Sicart, 14 Timoci Nagusa, 13 Thomas Combezou, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Taleta Tupuola, 10 Francois Trinh-Duc, 9 Benoit Paillaugue, 8 Alex Tulou, 7 Alexandre Bias, 6 Fulgence Ouedraogo, 5 Thibault Privat, 4 Mamuka Gorgodze, 3 Maximiliano Bustos, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili.
Replacements: 16 Charles Geli, 17 Nahuel Lobo, 18 Mickael De Marco, 19 Johnnie Beattie, 20 Julien Tomas, 21 Hamish Gard, 22 Martin Bustos Moyano, 23 Vincent Pelo.

Super 15 – Round 13

Chiefs vs Force

Last season’s champions currently sit on top of their conference but consistency continues to elude Dave Rennie’s side.

The opening 4 games saw an average of 39 points scored, a rate that dropped to 21 in the next 4 rounds. They’ve racked up 76 in the most recent 2 contests, but that increase in scoring has seemingly come at the expense of the defence. The Chiefs conceded an average of 19 points from rounds 1-6 but that’s jumped to 30 in the last 4 matches.

The hosts have scored the first try in 6 of their 10 matches and reached 10 points before their opponents in 8. They led early on by 24-0 against the Sharks and 24-7 at the Rebels yet both games ended much closer.

Force have lost 6/7 away games so far by a rate of 17-27 and 13 of the previous 15 by an average of 18-29. There have been complaints about the side about being “significantly disadvantaged” by the scheduling and unhappiness with a 6 day turnaround to face the Chiefs.

Chiefs have won 5/6 meetings with the Force by an average score of 33-19 and while the visitors once again frustrated the Reds, they’ve only scored an average of 13 points in their last 4 games.

The hosts have yet another different backline but still look more than capable of getting off to a quick start. The Force have only scored 1 try in the opening quarter and in contrast to recent weeks, am not sure they have the firepower to chase down a Chiefs score. Will take the -14 for the hosts.

There have been 11 cards shown in the last 10 Force away games and 3 in 5 Chiefs home games.

Robinson to score anytime at 3.3 and Aki at 3.2 appeal for the hosts.

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Save Tokula, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 1Ben Tameifuna, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Tanerau Latimer, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Asaeli Tikoirotuma.

Western Force: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Patrick Dellit, 13 Ben Jacobs, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Matt Hodgson (c), 5 Sam Wykes, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Heath Tessmann, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 James Hilterbrand, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Rory Walton, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Junior Rasolea, 22 Sam Norton-Knight

 

 

 

Reds vs Sharks

The Reds have been racking up plenty of carries in recent weeks with France-bound Digby Ioane second only to Izzy Folau for metres made. However the Queenslanders are only averaging 19 points a game, with just 42 combined scored in the last 3 matches. Ewen McKenzie has suggested the coaching team will look at all attacking options for this week and highlighted an over-reliance on the ‘pick and go’ last round.  The selection of Feauai-Sautia at centre appears to be the result of those coaching discusssions.

The hosts have recorded 2 draws and 2 single point victories in their last 5 matches and their 11 games this season have seen an average score of 19-18. They have won 6/9 clashes against this opposition at home by a rate of 27-25 but lost 6 of the most recent 7 meetings at all venues by a rate of 21-31.

The Sharks are 9^th on the Super Rugby ladder, 6 points adrift from a wildcard spot and have lost 4 consecutive games. John Plumtree’s side seem to be losing the battle of attrition against injuries with the midfield cupboard looking particularly bare. They do have some of their powerful forwards returning though and Alberts on the bench is going to be a welcomed sight to their fans.

Last time Sharks lost 5 in a row was the start of the 2010 season (and part of a run of 1 win from 10 games including end of 2009 season).

Reds have scored 1^st try in 4/6 home games and 6/11 matches overall.  Sharks have scored 1^st try in just the 1 game, the 64-7 hammering of the Rebels. It is 1.67 for the hosts to continue the trend.

With the Sharks injuries, it was tempting to back a decent Reds win here. They have a great record at home and should be looking for revenge after last year’s knockout defeat. However breaking down teams is proving a real problem despite plenty of possession and they are without skipper Horwill. The Sharks have shown plenty of spirit on this tour and do have the superiority in the head to head. There is a chance that this shift of Feauai-Sautia to centre will ignite but am going to back a 1-12 margin home win by 2.62.

Feauai-Sautia to score at 3.75 interests and the Sharks have conceded 6/19 tries against centres.

Half of the Sharks 20 tries have come via the backrow so Daniel at 5.5 is perhaps worth a look.

Reds: 15 Jono Lance, 14 Rod Davies, 13 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (c), 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Eddie Quirk, 5 Ed O’Donoghue, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Albert Anae, 18 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 19 Beau Robinson, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Ben Lucas, 22 Ben Tapuai.

The Sharks: 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Piet Lindeque, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (c), 7 Jean Deysel, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 3 Wiehahn Herbst, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Monde Hadebe, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Anton Bresler, 19 Derick Minnie, 20 Willem Alberts, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Odwa Ndungane.

 

 

 

Cheetahs vs Hurricanes

The Cheetahs have won 7 of their last 8 matches, which would be impressive in its own right but even more so when you consider they went on a run of just 6 wins from 42 matches from mid-2007 to 2010 and 5 victories from 21 games, end of 2011 to the start of this year.

If they are to be judged by the standards expected of realistic play-off contenders, then a failure to pick up a try bonus point against the Kings has to be seen as a negative. In mitigation, a case can be made that fatigue after 10 consecutive games and an away tour played a big part in that.

Canes boss Mark Hammett has stated that last week’s effort against the Bulls was well below the expected standards and pinpointed the set piece and inability to retain possession as main weaknesses.

He also praised South African defensive systems, a shrewd call given his team has just scored 16 points against the Stormers and 14 at the Bulls. In 2012, the Hurricanes averaged 34 points against SA teams so perhaps this is an attempt to deflect attention away from issues in his team’s attack. The tinkering at fly-half certainly cannot have helped.

The last 2 meetings between these sides have seen 85 and 97 total match points, while the Hurricanes last 5 trips to South Africa have averaged 69 points a game.

However, it is worth noting that a Cheetahs defence that conceded an average of 30 points in 2010, 27 in 2011 and 29 in 2012 has only allowed a rate of 21 a game this season. They collected 7 losing bonus points in each of the last 2 seasons but seem to have found a way to win those close games this year

Coach Naka Drotske has suggested an expansive game is on the cards, but also specifically brought up a perceived weakness in the visitors’ maul and scrum. It may be that whilst on paper it looks like a possible high scoring game, the Cheetahs more disciplined approach to attack this season means that total points line should be avoided.

I like the -7 available for the now refreshed hosts, and think these are two sides heading in different directions. The -2 alt handicap at 1.5 will be featuring in a few weekend multiples too.

Cheetahs have scored first points in 9/10 games, it’s 1.67 for that to continue.

2.75 for Le Roux / Rhule is about fair and much like backing Wade / Varndell in the Aviva Premiership is tough to pass up.

TJ Perenara has scored 4 tries in his 10 outings and 4.5 could prove popular given he bagged a braced last week.

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 Johan Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Burton Francis, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Phillip van der Walt, 7 Frans Viljoen, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (capt), 1 Coenie Oosthuisen.
Replacements: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Landman Ligtoring, 19 Boom Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Elgar Watts, 22 Ryno Benjamin.

Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor / James Marshall, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Reynold Lee-Lo, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito (c), 7 Jack Lam / Karl Lowe, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 1 Ben Franks, 2 Ash Dixon
Replacements:16 Reggie Goodes 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen 18 James Broadhurst 19 Brad Shields 20 Chris Smylie 21 Tusi Pisi 22 James Marshall / Karl Lowe

 

 

 

Blues vs Rebels

The Blues have won 4/5 home matches this season by an average score of 26-17. A 23-34 loss at the Rebels last season was part of a run of 13 defeats in 15 games and Sir John Kirwan has made it clear that he views the weekend’s visitors as dangerous despite their position in the standings.

A tackle completion rate that has hovered above the 80% mark in recent rounds, bar against the Reds, has been noted by the Blues coaching team but it’s also true that they’ve conceded an average of just 19 points per match and 13 in the last 4 outings.

The Rebels have lost 18/21 away games by an average score of 18-37 and 5/5 trips to New Zealand by 19-43. Similar to last season, the Melbourne side have seen an improvement in points scored per game, at the midway point of the season.

 In 2012, they managed an average of 19 points from rounds 1-7 which improved to 28 in rounds 8-12. This season it was 18 points a game between round 1 – 6 and 29 in the 4 matches since.

It also appears the Rebels have resolved their 2^nd half issues that saw them outscored by an average of 19 points from rounds 2-6. In the last 4 games, they’ve outscored the Force, Crusaders and Chiefs after the break.

All but 2 of the Rebels matches this season have seen 50 points or more and their 10 previous clashes with New Zealand opposition have seen an average of 61. That may point to taking overs on the points line of 52.5.

In the latest round of “beale or no beale” – the Rebels playmaker has yet again been stood down,  which must put his chances of facing the Lions in doubt.  Not sure how much of an effect it will have on team morale, given they must be used to it now.

Having just faced (and matched) 2 particularly mean defences in the Reds and Stormers, the Blues should find far more joy against a more porous Rebels side. Will take over 31.5 home points – the Rebels have conceded 30 points against the Kings / Crusaders, 34 at the Cheetahs, 39 against the Chiefs and 64 at the Sharks so far this season. Outside of Australia, the visitors have considered an average of 42 points a match and more than 31.5 in 9/11 games.

The Rebels have conceded 8 tries against fullbacks, comfortably the highest amount of any side in the competition. That puts Piutau in the frame for anytime scorer at 2.75 while their 9 tries allowed against backrows may prompt interest in Luatua , though 4.5 is a little short.

Blues: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Francis Saili, 11 George Moala, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Brendon O’Connor, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams (c), 4 Anthony Boric, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Quentin MacDonald, 1 Tim Perry
Replacements:16 Gafatasi Su’a, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Ronald Raaymakers, 19 Luke Braid, 20 Jamison Gibson-Park, 21 Baden Kerr, 22 Lolagi Visinia.

Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Lachie Mitchell, 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Luke Jones, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Nic Stirzaker, 21 Angus Roberts, 22 Bryce Hegarty.

 

 

 

Tahs vs Stormers

The Tahs have won 4 of their 5 home matches by an average score of 27-24. Each match there has been decided by a margin of 5 points or less.

 The Stormers have lost 4/5 away games by a rate of 16-19, with the last 3 trips decided by 2 point margins or less. It’s also the case that 7 of their last 8 games at all venues have seen 7 point margins.

Waratahs have won 3/6 clashes at home to Stormers by 22-18, however they’ve only won 1 of the previous 6 meetings.

The hosts scored 11 tries against the Kings last week and carried for over 900 metres, with Folau making 190m and fly-half Foley over 130m and 3 assists. They are up against a Stormers team that has only allowed 11 tries this season.

They’ve also only managed 3 tries against the South African side in the last 6 meetings and an average of just 10 points.

The area that will likely be focussed on is the lineout, with the Tahs struggling against the Bulls and the Stormers usually strong both there and in the maul. But  it’s also the case that the Stormers kicking game looked very poor last week and it was only the sheer desire of skipper de Villiers that dragged them back into a match that on another day they could / should  have won comfortably.

There is a best price of 1.91 available for the hosts and 2.15 for the Stormers which usually means (a) bookies aren’t sure and (b) backing the draw and 1-5 margins may be an idea.

I think the Stormers may be distracted by this on-going assistant referee dispute and prefer to take home advantage and the Tahs 1-5 margin at 5.5.

Folau at 3.25 and Foley at 6.0 have both proved profitable for the hosts while it’s tough to ignore that sky scraper of a winger / lock Bekker at 9.5 and Aplon at 3.5

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cam Crawford, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Rob Horne, 11 Peter Betham, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Brendan McKibbin, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis (capt), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Paddy Ryan, 18 Will Skelton, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Pat McCutcheon, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Berrick Barnes, 23 Drew Mitchell.

Stormers: 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Gary van Aswegen, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Deon Fourie, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Don Armand, 19 Nizaam Carr, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Elton Jantjies, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.

 

 

 

Kings vs Highlanders

Understandably in their debut Super Rugby season, the Kings are starting to feel the strain. In rounds 1-7, their average score was 24-32 with wins against the Force, Rebels and a draw with the Brumbies. In the last 3 matches, it’s dropped to 7-44 and while their 1^st half woes have continued – they are now being heavily outscored after the break too.

The hosts have trailed at halftime in 9 of their 10 games by an average of 12 points. The Highlanders have a similar record, in that they’ve been behind after 40 minutes in 7/9 matches by a rate of 7 points.

The Highlanders have conceded over 20 points in 8 of their 9 games and an average of 29 points, while the Kings have allowed 35 a game and over 20 in their last 9.

The 1^st half has been highest scoring in the last 8 Kings games and 6/10 Highlanders matches. It’s 2.2 for the trend to continue.

Highlanders snapped a run of 11 defeats when they beat the Sharks 25-22 last week. They have managed to score 33 points against the Reds this season and 27 versus the Chiefs  and have the ability to play an expansive style that could overwhelm a tired Kings team. Will take over 28.5 away points .

Kings: 15 George Whitehead, 14 Marcello Sampson, 13 Ronnie Cooke, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Siyanda Grey, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Shaun Venter, 8 Cornell du Preez, 7 Wimpie van der Walt, 6 Luke Watson (c), 5 David Bulbring, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Kevin Buys, 2 Bandise Maku, 1 Schalk Ferreira.

Replacements: 16 Virgile Lacombe, 17 Grant Kemp, 18 Daniel Adongo, 19 Devin Oosthuizen, 20 Nicolas Vergallo, 21 Shane Gates, 22 SP Marais.

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Tino Nemani, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 TJ Ioane, 7 John Hardie, 6 Jarrad Hoeata, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Chris King, 2 Andrew Hore (c), 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Ma’afu Fia, 18 Mose Tuiali’i, 19 Joe Wheeler, 20 Fumiaka Tanaka, 21 Hayden Parker, 22 Jason Emery.