Heineken / Amlin Cup Final – Preview, Stats and Tips

Heineken Cup Final

Points difference

The average points difference between teams is 6

Last 10 years has a 6 point average difference

Last 5 years has a 7 point average difference.

Total Points

The average total points in match is 37 – Leicester’s win in 2001 saw the highest points total with 64 and lowest occurred the year before in 2000 with Saints win and a 17 point total.

Winning Margin

The highest winning margin has been by 19 points in 1997

12 of the 16 Finals have seen winning margins within 7 points or 75%.

Last 10 years, it is 80% of finals and last 5 years it is down to 60% of matches.

 

Seeding and Nationality

Leinster are 2^nd seed, a position that has been victorious six times. They won the competition in 2009 and 2011.

Ulster are 8^th seed – positions that have never won. They won the competition in 1999.

9 of 34 Finalists have been Irish teams and this is the first all-Irish final.

Irish teams have now won 5 of the last 7 Heineken Cups.

5 of the last 6 Finals have been contested by previous winners of the Cup.

An Ulster win would mean that Ireland would have 3 multiple winners (England has 2 and France just 1)

A Leinster win mean back to back victories, a feat achieved by Leicester in 2001/2.

Other stats

Either Brad Thorn and Pedrie Wannenburg will join the elite group of Heineken Cup and Super Rugby winners with Doug Howlett and Rod Kafer.

There are only 4 teams that have reached an Heineken Cup final but not lost it – Leinester,Ulster, Wasps and Bath. That will change of course on Saturday.

BOD is only 1 score behind Vincent Clerc in the all-time try scorers list with 31.

The ERC website had a great showing that following sets of brothers have seen Heineken Cup glory:

Philippe and Olivier Carbonneau (Toulouse, 1996)

Jan and Bryn Cunningham (Ulster Rugby, 1999)

Martin and Will Johnson (Leicester Tigers, 2001 and 2002)

Isitolo and Finau Maka (Toulouse, 2005)

There is the chance for Rob and David Kearney or David and Ian Humphreys to join that list in 2012.

Cedric Heymans is the only person to have won the Cup 4 times.

There have only been 35 tries scored in 16 Heineken Cup finals at 2.18 a game though there was 6 last year!

Forwards have scored 9 tries

Raphael Ibanez – hooker  – 2007.

Dylan Hartley – hooker – 2009

Nathan Hines – lock – 2011

David Wallace – flanker – 2000,

Neil Back flanker – 2001

Ben Woods flanker -2009

Phil Dowson flanker – 2011

Denis Leamy – number 8 – 2008

Jamie Heaslip – number 8 – 2009

Backs have scored 26 tries

Eoin Reddan – scrumhalf 2007

Peter Stringer – scrumhalf 2006

Rob Howley – scrumhalf 2004

Jérôme Cazalbou – scrumhalf 1996

Jonny Sexton – flyhalf  (2) 2011

Yann Delaigue- flyhalf  2004

Austin Healey – flyhalf 2002

Karmichael Hunt – centre 2010

Trevor Halstead – centre 2006

Stuart Abbott – centre 2004

Leon Lloyd (2)–centre 2001

Thomas Castaignede – centre 1996

Yves Donguy – winger 2008

Sireli Bobo – winger 2006

Vincent Clerc – winger 2003

Pascal Bomati – winger 2003

Geordan Murphy – winger 2002

Sebastian Carrat (2) – winger – 1997

G Fabre – winger 1997

Sebastian Viars – fullback 1997

Jon Callard – fullback 1998

Mark Van Gisbergen – fullback 2004

Ben Foden – fullback 2011

Only 6 matches have seen both teams score a try in the Final.

Only 5 matches have seen more than 2 tries scored in a match and an English team has been involved in 4 of those finals.

The first four Heineken Cup winning captains were backs – Emile Ntamack (Toulouse – 1996), Alain Penaud (Brive – 1997), Andy Nicol (Bath – 1998) and David Humphreys (Ulster – 1999).

But since 1999, every team that has won the Heineken Cup has been captained by a forward – Pat Lam (Northampton Saints – 2000), Martin Johnson (Leicester Tigers – 2001, 2002), Fabien Pelous (Toulouse – 2003, 2005), Lawrence Dallaglio (London Wasps – 2004, 2007) and Anthony Foley (Munster – 2006) Paul O’Connell  (Munster 2008), Leo Cullen (Leinster 2009,2011) Thierry Dusautoir (Toulouse 2010)

Match Preview

 

Ulster:

Season record: won 12, lost 10 (lost 3 in a row)

Home record: won 9 , lost 2

Scoring: Average of 22  points a game (11 in 1st half / 10 in 2nd) and concede 19  (11 / 8).

In Europe, won 6 and lost 2. Scored 25 (14 / 11) and concede 15 (7 / 8)

 

Scorers:

Ulster have scored 58% of their tries in the last 20 minutes of each half in the league and conceded 60% of their tries in the opening 20 and final 20 minutes of games.

In Europe, Ulster have scored 41% of tries in the last 20 minutes and conceded 56% in the last 20 minutes.

23% of Ulster’s tries are from wingers, 19% from centres, 21% from backrow,17% from halfbacks.

Ulster concede 34% of tries against wingers and 21% against backrowers.

Darren Cave 5 tries in 13 matches, Craig Gilroy 3 in 20,  Paddy Wallace 3 in 9, Stefan Terblanche 3 in 10, Andrew Trimble 2 in 8.

In Europe –  Ulster have scored 67% in the opening and closing 20 minutes of matches and just 11% between 41-60 minutes. They have conceded 6 of 10 tries in the last 20 minutes.

47% tries scored by winger and 44% conceded against that position.

Andrew Trimble 4 tries in 8 matches, Craig Gilroy 3 in 8, Paul Marshall 2 in 6.

Leinster:

Season record: won 19 , drawn 1, lost 3(Only 1 defeat in 20 league games)

Scoring: Average of 26 points ( 11 / 15) and concede 15  (8 / 7 )

In Europe, won 7, drawn 1 scoring 28 (15 / 13) and concede 13 (6 / 7)

Scorers: Domestically Leinster have scored 42% of their tries in the last 20 minutes and 63% in the second half. They have conceded 36% of tries in between 41-60 minutes but just 14% in the opening 20 minutes.

Leinster have scored 22% of tries from halfback, 18% from backrow,16% from centre and 16% from front row.

They conceded 44% of tries against forwards in the league – the highest rate with 20% against backrow, 16% frontow and 8% second row. Also 32% of tries against wingers.

Ian Madigan 7 tries in 20 matches, Leo Auva’a 5 in 17, Fionn Carr 5 in 19,

 

In Europe – Leinster have scored 61% of tries in the 20 minutes either side of halftime  and conceded 6 of their 7 tries in the last 20 minutes.

26% tries scored by fullback, 23% by halfback and conceded 43% against halfbacks.

Rob Kearney 6 tries in 8, Eion O’Malley 2 in 5,Issac Boss 2 in 8, Cian Healey 2 in 7.

Head to head – Last 10 meetings, Leinster have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1.

 

Preview:

This all-Irish final pits the 1999 winners against the 2009 & 2011 victors and continues a period of Irish dominance in the competition, having supplied 5 of the last 7 winners. To put it in perspective, 6 of the last 14 finalists have been from Ireland as opposed to 3 of the 20 finalists before that.

Ulster saw off their opponents in the quarter and semi-finals with defensive efforts that saw them make a combined 321 tackles (plus 29 misssed) and the accurate boot of Ruan Pienaar who scored 31 of the 44 points gained in those matches. There is a vastly experienced South African presence to the team, and they have all contributed greatly to this campaign such as Johann Muller who has won 46 lineouts in and made 75 tackles or at Number 8  Pedrie Wannenburg with 3 assists and 4 lineout steals as well as 63 tackles. Talisman Stephen Ferris has been rested recently and he, along with the returning Chris Henry will look to prevent Leinster from establishing an attacking platform by slowing down quick ball at source.

That Ulster are very much the underdogs in the eyes of the bookies, despite a campaign that has seen them dispatch heavyweights Leicester, Clermont and Munster is a testament to how highly regarded Leinster are. Going for back to back triumphs, they have won an incredible 26 of 31 matches this season and have already established a legacy as one of the all-time great European forces.

In a team littered with Internationals and full of confidence – the efforts of Rob Kearney have to be highlighted. He has scored 6 tries in 8 matches so far, with 4 assists. Include the 91 carried for 740metres, 18 defenders beaten , 8 clean breaks, 15 offloads, that drop goal and the immeasurable contributions such as an unrivalled ability under the high ball and you have quite the performer! There are injury concerns over him, as well as fellow experienced Internationals D’Arcy, Healy and BOD which are to be expected at the end of a season. Both sides also have selection issues at halfback, with a dilemma over rookie Jackson or the departing  Humphreys at 10 for Ulster, and the quick service of Reddan or former Ulster player Boss at 9 for Leinster.

Ulster have found success using Pienaar’s pinpoint kicking to gain territory and trusting a ferocious defence and grinding set piece. However in Leinster, they have a familiar opponent who can more than hold their own in a tight game, but hold the advantage in the backline. Any wayward kicking is going to be capitalised on by their electric back 3 and in Sexton they have Europe’s in-form 10, with confidence forged from the experience of rallying the team from a 16 point halftime deficit in last year’s final.

In very simplistic terms, if Leinster get quick ball regularly and anything near parity in the set-piece then they have the ability to put a big score on Ulster, who aren’t a team that want to be chasing a game. With that in mind, Ulster are going to be doing everything possible to slow down the breakdown, control the tempo of the game and turn it into that commentators favourite “an arm wrestle”. It does all point to an epic forwards tussle for the first 60 minutes before Leinsters ability to carve out a try sees them home…however I must be getting more sentimental as there is something nagging about Ulster upsetting the odds!

Betting view:

The win line is set at 1.3 for Leinster and 4.5 for Ulster. That price should be big enough to encourage a small play on the ‘underdogs’.

The handicap line is +8 Ulster at evens or -7 Leinster at 1.91. I can see a lot of people backing Leinster on the handicap but 8 points are a lot to be giving away in a final especially if you bear in mind that 12 of 16 Finals have been settled by 7 points or less and 10/16 by 5 points or less and the fact that Ulster are going to be trying to keep it tight. Much like the win line, will be rooting for the Ulstermen here.

Can also get Ulster +14 at 1.5 which might suit as an accy filler.

Ulster are +5 at 1.8 on the ht handicap.

Leinster to win by 1-10 at 3.0 or 1-12 at 2.5  seem a preferable option to the win line and handicaps if backing the favourites.

If you agree that its going to be a close game – then Leinster 1-5 at 6.0 or Ulster 1-5 at 8.0 are both decent bets.

Also like a drop goal at 2.1 – there has been a drop goal in 11/16 finals and both sides have players that are willing to have a go at one.

For the try markets, if you can find a price for no Ulster tries then pounce on that. I think Leinster will get 1, but no try at 17’s may tempt.

There is little value in it, but given Ulster will most likely be trying to slow down ball – a sin bin is at 1.57.

Given Leinster have scored the majority of their tries domestically in the second half and specifically  in last 20 minutes and they and  Ulster have both  conceded the majority  of their Heineken Cup tries in the last 20 minutes, then be on the lookout for a market for 2^nd half tries.

Paddy Power are offering a special that redunds try scorer bets if BOD scores which is worth noting if anyone is going to be betting on those markets.

Will make a note of any Match specials  – first up are Blue Square:

Sexton to be Leinsters only point scorer at 4

Pienaar to score a penalty from his own half / halfway line – 2.1

Pienaar to score a penalty, try and conversion – 34

Ladbrokes have plenty of speicals too:

Leinster to score first and win – 2.2

Leinster to score first and lose -9

Ulster to score first and win -7

Ulster to score first and lose 2.88

Sexton to score a pen, try, conversion and drop goal at 26

Leinster to win to nil at 26

Pienaar to score a pen,try, conversion and drop goal at 67

Ulster to win to nil – 500

Man of the match market:

Sexton -6, BOD 10, Kearney 10, O’Brien 10, Nacewa 13, Heaslip 13, Healy 21, McFadden 26,Strauss 26,Thorn 29, Reddan 34, D’Arcy 41,Jennings 41, Court 51, Ross 56, Cullen 67

Pienaar-8, Ferris 11,Wannenburg 17,Best 17,Henry 21,Jackson 21,Afoa 29, Trimble 34, Gilroy 34, Muller 34, Terblanche 41, Tuohy 51, Wallace 51, Cave 67

Result: Leinster won 42-14! Easily covering the handicap. Twitter users will have been pleased the Pienaar to score 8.5 points bet came in and a sin bin but overall a bad match for betting.

 

 

 

Amlin Cup

Points difference

The average points difference between teams is 11.2

Last 10 years has a 8 point average difference

Last 5 years has a 6.8 point average difference.

The highest winning margin has been by 38 points (1998)

Nationality

Fifth time there has been all-French final and will be the Sixth time a French side has won the cup.

Toulon:

Season record: won 14, drawn 5, lost 7

Scoring: Average of 22 points a game (11 in 1st half / 11 in 2nd) and concede 15 (7.5 / 7.5).

In Europe, Won 7 and lost 1 – scoring 33 (16 / 17) and concede 14 (8 / 6)

37 cards shown in 34 Toulon games

44 tries scored in league and 26 conceded

Biarritz:

Season record: won 10, drawn 2,lost 14

Scoring: Average of 16 points a game (8 in 1st half / 8 in 2nd) and concede 20 (9 / 11).

In Europe – Won 5, lost 3. Scoring 24 (9 / 15) and concede 16 (8 /8)

38 cards in 34 Biarritz games

26 tries scored in league and 48 conceded.

Preview:

Biarritz started the domestic  season with just 2 wins in their first 13 matches. A run of 8 wins in the remaining 13 matches saw them finish in 9^th place, and 10 points clear of the side they dispatched in the Amlin Semi-final, Brive. The Basque team have only managed an average of 1 try a game in the Top 14, the lowest rate in the league and away from home have lost 13 of 17 matches, by a margin of 10 points. One of the ‘nearly teams ‘ of European rugby – they have lost 5 quarter-finals, 2 semi-finals and 2 Heineken Cup finals in the professional era.  The names Imanol Harinordoquy and Dimitri Yachvili are never too far away from any discussion of Biarritz, with the French Internationals clearly the heartbeat of the side. When either or both are missing, the results suffer.

Toulon were losing Amlin Cup finalists in 2010 and finished the Top 14 season in 3^rd, giving them a home play-off game against Racing Metro next Saturday. Mourad Boudjellal’s funding has seen plenty of high profile signings, with ‘rosbifs’ Jonny Wilkinson (243 points this season) and Steffon Armitage (6 tries in 24 matches) scoring all 27 points in their semi-final win over Stade. Toulon had a very impressive home record this year with 16 wins and a draw from 18 matches and averaging an 18 point winning margin. Away from the Stade Mayol, they have only recorded 5 wins from 16 matches, but have also drawn 4 times which is an usually high figure. They presumably will get the support from any neutrals at the Stoop, due to their British imports.

Biarritz won the home meeting this season by 19 points and lost away by 25 points but in a Cup final environment such blow-outs are unlikely to be repeated. Toulon have the final stages of the Top 14 in the back of their mind whereas Biarritz have no such distraction and the carrot of Heineken Cup qualification. I see this being a kick-fest and following the pattern of close Toulon road games. It wouldnt be a surprise to see a late Wilkinson drop goal seal the win late on.

Betting view:

Toulon were given 12 and 13 point handicaps in the Qf and Sf stages of this competition but the line is set much lower in this match at +3 or -2 at 1.91. Am happy to take the +3.5 at 1.8 for Biarritz and will possibly look at the alt-handicap markets.

The winning line is 1.67 for Toulon and 2.7 for Biarritz but remember there is also ‘To lift the trophy’ (e.g. win can occur in extra time) – Toulon 1.57 and Biarritz 2.38.

A drop goal to occur at  1.62

A draw to occur at either ht or ft – 7.5 or draw at 21’s

No try scorer is 17′s and under 3.5 tries at 1.57

Steffon Armitage man of match is worth a go if Dewi Morris is commentating and in responsible for deciding the award as he has been raving over him this year, he is also 6′s to score which is ok considering he has scored in 25% of the games he has played.

Wayne Barnes averaged 1.6 yellow cards in the Aviva Prem per match – the league average was just 0.7 cards a game.

 

Result: Biarritz won 21-18 in a match that featured no tries, a drop goal and 2 yellow cards so majority of bets were successful.

 

Toulon: 15 Benjamin Lapeyre, 14 Alexis Palisson, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 David Smith, 10 Jonny Wilkinson, 9 Sebastien Tillous-Borde, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Steffon Armitage, 6 Pierrick Gunther, 5 Kris Chesney, 4 Christophe Samson, 3 Carl Hayman, 2 Sebastien Bruno, 1 Eifion Lewis-Roberts.
Replacements: 16 Jean-Charles Orioli, 17 Laurent Emmanuelli, 18 Davit Kubriashvili, 19 Joe El Abd, 20 Geoffroy Messina, 21 Dean Schofield, 22 Fabien Cibray, 23 Jocelino Suta.

Biarritz Olympique: 15 Iain Balshaw, 14 Taku Ngwenya, 13 Jean Pascal Barraque, 12 Damien Traille, 11 Dane Haylett-Petty, 10 Julien Peyrelongue, 9 Dimitri Yachvili, 8 Imanol Harinordoquy, 7 Benoit Guyot, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Pelu Taele, 4 Jerome Thion, 3 Eugene van Staden, 2 Arnaud Heguy, 1 Yvan Watremez.
Replacements: 16 Benoit August, 17 Sylvain Marconnet, 18 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 19 Erik Lund, 20 Talalelei Gray, 21 Charles Gimenez, 22 Marcelo Bosch, 23 Ilikena Bolakoro.

Super 15 – Round 13

Hurricanes vs Brumbies

Canes:

Season record: won 6 , lost 5

Home record: won 2, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 28.5 points ( 16.5 / 12 ) and concede 28 (16 / 12 )

Home its 29 (19 / 10) and concede 29  (18 / 11)

Brumbies:

Season record: won 6 , lost 4

Away record: won 1 , lost 3

Scoring: Average of 27 points a game (14 in 1st half / 13 in 2nd) and concede 21 (11 / 10 ).

At home its scored 26 (10/ 16 ) and concede 26 (12 / 14 )

Head to Head: Canes have won 3 of the last 4 matches. 2 of the last 4 matches have seen 1 point winning margins.

Scorers:

Joseph Tomane 4 tries in 9 games (3.0 anytime), Henry Speight 5 tries in 10 (2.37 anytime) , Jesse Mogg 3 tries in 10 (4.33 anytime)  Andrew Smith 3 in 10 (4.33 anytime)

Andre Taylor has 8 tries in 11 (2.2 anytime scr),  TJ Perenara has 5 in 10, Conrad Smith 4 in 11 (3.5 anytime), Cory Jane 3 in 10 (2.38 anytime), Julian Savea 3 in 8 (2.38 anytime)

Brumbies have scored 29 tries and conceded 17. Canes have scored 36 and conceded 28.

Brumbies score and concede their tries consistently through each quarter of a match except for 0- 20 minutes when they only concede 11% of their tries.

38% of tries are scored by their wingers and 24% of tries conceded are against back-rowers and 18% against wing, centre and halfbacks.

Canes have scored 61% in between 21-60 minutes. They concede 32% in the first 20 minutes, but just 14% between 41-60 minutes.

Canes have scored 22% from fullback, 20% from centre and 20% from halfback. They concede 26% against centres and 22% against front rows.

The Canes average 56 total points a match and the Brumbies 48.

Preview:

The Brumbies hold an 8 point lead in the Australian conference and as 4 of their 6 remaining games are against division rivals, stand a good chance of reaching the latter stages of the competition. The key factor will be how they deal with the loss of Christian Lealiifano, as he’s joined Matt Toomua on the injury list. Peter Hewatt has been drafted in as cover, but in a surprise they have gone with a halfback pairingof Prior and Holmes. In common with the Canes, they are high scoring and over-achieving – considering the coaching and player changes from last season but the difference lies in the defence where they concede 7 less points a game than their NZ opponents. The Canes backline trio of Barrett (rested), Smith and TJ Perenara have missed 74 tackles this season whilst the forwards were forced to make 94  against the Highlanders. If the Brumbies (who are coming off a bye) struggle to click in attack without Lealiifano then they may alter their style of play and look to their pack to test what must be a tired Hurricanes unit. That being said, the Brumbies halfback selection suggests their focus is going to be on their upcoming conference games and with a few disgruntled Canes wanting to send a message to the NZ selectors, am expecting a home win here.

Ref – Mark Lawrence has been in charge of 5 games and each time the home side has won. He averages a yellow card a game (Super 15 avg is 0.4 cards a game) and matches have seen an average of 45 points (Super 15 average is 49)

A sin bin to occur at PRICE

Position to score first try 11,14 or 15 at 2.4 and Andre Taylor anytime at 2.6

Canes are 1.53 to win this with Brumbies at 3.

The handicap line is at -5 at 1.91.

The Brumbies haven’t been beaten by more than 7 points so will be on Canes 1-12 at 2.75 or 1-10 at 3

Brumbies won this 37-25  and  their superior backrow and pack were the difference.

 Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (c), 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Brad Shields, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu’u, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Jack Lam, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Jayden Hayward.

Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Zack Holmes, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Fotu Auelua, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Ben Mowen (capt), 5 Sam Carter, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Dan Palmer, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
Replacements: 16 Anthony Hegarty, 17 Ruaidhri Murphy, 18 Peter Kimlin, 19 Ita Vaea, 20 Nic White, 21 Robbie Coleman, 22 Tevita Kuridrani.

Highlanders vs Bulls

Highlanders:

Season record: won 7 , lost 4 (2 in a row)

Home record: won 4 , lost 2

Scoring: Average of 24 points a game (12 in 1st half / 12 in 2nd) and concede 23  (14 / 9 ).

At home its scored 24 (13 / 11 ) and concede 21  (11 / 10 )

 

Bulls:

Season record: won 8 , lost 2 ( 5 wins in a row)

Away record: won 4, lost 1

Scoring: Average of 34 points (14 / 19) and concede 23 ( 13 / 10  )

Away its 33 (18 / 15) and concede 23 (15 / 8)

 

Head to Head: Bulls have won 3 of the last 5.

 

Scorers:

Adam Thompson has 4 tries in 10 (4.5), Aaron Smith 3 in 11 (5), Jimmy Cowan 2 in 10, Shaun Treeby 2 in 6, Kurt Baker 2 in 3, Ben Smith 2 in 9 (2.25)

Bjorn Basson has 7 tries in 10 games (2.6), CJ Stander 4 in 9 (7.5), Zane Kirchner 4 in 10 (3.6) ,Wynard Oliver 3 in 8 (4.2), Akona Ndungane 3 in 10 (2.6) , JJ Engelbrecht 3 in 11.

Highlanders have scored 25 tries and conceded 18. Bulls have scored 36 and conceded 23.

Bulls only scored 14% of tries in first 20 minutes but 61% in last 20 minutes of each half They concede 74% of tries in first and last 20 minutes of matches.

31% of Bulls tries are from wingers and 19% from backrow. 26% of tries they concede are scored by halfbacks, 26% wing and 17% backrow.

Bulls have outscored opponents in 9/10 second halves and seen the opponents reach 10 points first in 7/10 games and in the last 6.

Highanders have scored 60% of tries in the second half and just 16% between 21-40 minutes. They concede 55% in the first half, with 39% in the first 20 minutes.

Highlanders have scored 32% of tries scored from halfback, with 16% from centre and 20% from backrow. They concede 39% against wingers, 17% against halfbacks and 17% against backrow.

Highlanders have seen first half highest scoring in 8/11 games

Preview:

The Highlanders go into this match off 2 consecutive losses where they made the opposing side make over 150 tackles. Having made a habit of winning by a small margin (6 of their 7 victories have come by 4 points or less), they are finding that plenty of possession doesn’t guarantee victory. It might be that the slide started after the home loss to the Stormers in round 7, with close wins over the Blues and Cheetahs masking the problems. The Highlanders lost 6 of their 7 last games in the 2011 season and this year’s crop find themselves out of the top 6 for the first time this year. The increase in kicks from hand suggested a slight intention to vary from the pick and drive game but many of them were poorly directed and ultimately that, along with some untimely turnovers cost them. The Bulls have won their last 5 matches, but the last 2 on Australian soil could easily have been reversals. The Pretorian side have seen their opposition reach 10 points before them in the last 6 games and have outscored opponents in 9 of 10 second halves. In much the same way the Highlanders have been punished for living off those tight wins, the Bulls surely cannot go on with this trend of conceding early points without losing a game.

Ref is Ian Smith – he has been in charge of 4 games. Those games have seen 3 home wins and averaged 61.5 points (Super 15 average is 49)

The bookies are struggling to split these teams with Highlanders at 2.1 and Bulls 1.91.

The Highlanders are available at +2 at 1.91 and their favourite winning margin of 1-5 is 6.5

Will continue to oppose Bulls on the race to 10 points market so –  Highlanders at 1.91

Highlanders won 16-11 and covered that 1-5 market, as well as beating the Bulls to 10 points.

 

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Siale Piutau, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 Tim Boys, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Nick Crosswell, 4 Jarrad Hoeata, 3 Ma’afu Fia, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (capt).
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Hoani MacDonald/Josh Bekhuis, 19 Scott Fuglistaller, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Chris Noakes, 22 Kenny Lynn.

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (c), 7 CJ Stander, 6 Dewald Potgieter, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Rayno Gerber, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 JJ Engelbrecht.

 

Crusaders vs Blues

Crusaders:

Season record: won 7, lost 4

Home record: won 3, lost 1

Scoring: Average of 27 points (14 / 13 ) and concede 22 (11 / 11 )

Home its 23 ( 10 / 13)  and concede 20  (9 / 11)

 

Blues:

Season record: won 2, lost 9

Home record: won 1, lost 5

Scoring: Average of 21 points ( 11 / 10 ) and concede 25 (15 / 10 )

Away  its 22 (11 / 11) and concede 30 (16 / 14)

 

Head to Head: Crusaders won 5 of the last 7.

Scorers:

Robbie Fruean has 6 in 11 (2.6), Israel Dagg 4 in 11 (2.6), Zac Guildford 3 in 10 (2.25)

Benson Stanley has 3 in 11 (4), Luke Braid 2 in 9 (6.5)

Crusaders have scored 23 and conceded 23. Blues have scored 19 and conceded 31.

Crusaders score 82% of their tries in the first 60 minutes of matches. and concede tries on an even basis bar 21-40 minutes when they only allow 17% of tries.

Crusaders score 30% from wing and 30% from centre. They concede 22% against front row, 22% against centre 17% against wing, halfback and backrow.

Blues score 32% of tries in first 20 minutes but concede 39% in that period too.

32% of Blues tries are from centres and the concede 32% from that position and 26% from wingers.

8/11 Blues and 7/11 Crusaders games have seen first half highest scoring and 7/7 of their combined  matches against New Zealand teams.

Blues have trailed at halftime in 9 of their 10 matches

Preview:

With the campaign being so gruelling, maintaining that balance between consistency, squad rotation and handling injuries is an essential skill. The Rebels match would have jumped out of the fixture list for the Crusaders as the best time to rest a couple of All Blacks, especially with 4 inter-conference games following it. Being kept scoreless in the second half and suffering a defeat was clearly not have been part of the plan. There have been similar away defeats in previous seasons at roughly this stage – Cheetahs in 2009 & 2011 and Force in 2010 , so the Canterbury side will not panic and they now have 3 home games in a row. The decrease in points scored from an average of 27 to 17 in the last 2 games does need resolving quickly though. Their opponents the Blues won their wooden spoon clash against fellow strugglers the Lions, but still managed 4 lineout failures (an area of strength for the Canterbury side).Their work at the breakdown was an improvement on previous efforts and both Braid brothers put in excellent shifts but the Blues have lost 5 of their last 7 against the Crusaders.

Ref is Bryce Lawrence. He has taken charge of 7 games – 5 of which have seen home wins. The average total points has been 43 in those games (average is 49 in Super 15)

The Crusaders are 1.22 to win this and the Blues are at a huge 7’s.

The handicap line is at 10-11 points but with the Saders not firing in recent weeks will most likely avoid that.

Instead will look at Crusaders to win 1-12 at 2.88 or 1-10 at 3.4.

Highest scoring half to be first at 2.1

Crusaders won 59-12! Making a mockery of the suggestion they wouldnt cover the handicap.

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Brendon O’Connor, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tyler Bleyendaal, 22 Tom Marshall.

Blues: 15 Hadleigh Parkes, 14 David Raikuna, 13 Ma’a Nonu, 12 Michael Hobbs, 11 Benson Stanley, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Luke Braid (c), 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Liaki Moli, 3 Tevita Mailau, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Angus Ta’avao, 18 Filo Paulo, 19 Peter Saili, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Lachie Munro, 22 Sherwin Stowers.

 

 

Reds vs Lions

Reds:

Season record: won 6, lost 5

Home record: won 4 , lost 1

Scoring: Average of 20 points a game (10 in 1st half / 10 in 2nd) and concede 24  (10 / 14 ).

At home its scored 24 (11 / 13) and concede 18 (10 /8 )

 

Lions:

Season record: won 1, lost 9 ( 9 losses in a row)

Away record: lost 4

Scoring: Average of 17 points a game (7 in 1st half / 10 in 2nd) and concede 29 (17 /12 ).

Away its scored 12 (4 / 8 ) and concede 29  (17 / 12 )

Head to Head: Reds have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses in recent matches.

 

Scorers:

Dom Shipperley 6 tries in 11 games (1.91), Scott Higginbotham 4 in 10 (3.3)

Cobus Grobbelaar has 3 in 12 games, Jacob Taute 2 in 10 (4.5), Joshua Strauss 2 in 10 (5) Tian Meyer 2 in 7.

Reds have scored 23 tries and conceded 28 tries. .Lions have scored 15 and conceded 32.

Reds have scored 91% of tries in the first 60 minutes. They have only conceded 7% of tries in first 20 minutes. In 2^nd half they let in 61% of their tries.

Reds have scored 27% of tries from wingers and 22% from backrow. They concede 30% against backrow and 19% against halfbacks , 22% against wingers respectively.

Lions score 40% of their tries in the last 20 minutes and 67% in the second half. They  concede 59% of tries in the first half and 38% between 21-40 minutes. They only concede a league low 9% in the last 20 minutes.

67% of Lions tries are from their forwards – 27% backrow, 20% locks, 20% front row. They concede 69% of tries against backs with 31% against wingers.

Lions have trailed at halftime in every away match by at least 7 points.

 Preview:

The Reds were trailing 8-22 at home to the marauding Chiefs after 37 minutes and a 6^th defeat in 11 matches looked likely. Instead within a frantic 15 minute period, they had scored 28 unanswered points and finished off the shell-shocked table toppers. With Will Genia, looking back to his best Gill superb at the breakdown, and Quade Cooper returning – the Queenslanders season has possibly sparked at just the right time. To exert real pressure on the Brumbies, they need to follow up that performance with a bonus point win. The fixture computer has been kind on that front by providing a home match against the Lions, a team that has lost 9 games on the bounce, 34 of their last 39 Super matches, conceded 32 tries in 10 games and most heinous allowed Piri Weepu to break their defensive line. More seriously, the Lions future looks uncertain with the Southern Kings guaranteed a Super Rugby place next season. There are all kinds of merger rumours circulating about how 6 teams will fit into the 5 conference places but does the return of the (Golden) Cats or the Southern (Lion) Kings appeal to anyone? The Reds have scored tries in the first 3 minutes of their last 3 games and against a woeful team that has trailed by at least 7 points in every away match at half-time, this one could be over very early.

Ref is Keith Brown. He has taken charge of 5 games of which 3 were home wins. There is an average of 50 points in his games which is 1 point more than the league average.

Position to score first try – 11,14 or 15 at 2.4

Half-time handicap – Reds -8 at 1.91

The Lions have lost by at least 12 points on each away trip. The handicap line is 17 or 18  which is a lot of points to be giving away but in this case will make an exception and back the Reds to beat it.

Reds 34-20, a frustrating match that saw the Reds lead by 7 points at ht, having wasted 2 golden chances under the posts. 2nd half they conceded late to cost the handicap.

 Reds: 15 Ben Lucas, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Anthony Faingaa, 12 Mike Harris, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia; 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Jake Schatz, 5 James Horwill (capt), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.
Replacements: James Hanson, Ben Daley, Adam Wallace-Harrison, Eddie Quirk, Nick Frisby, Chris F’sautia, Luke Morahan.

Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Deon van Rensburg, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Jaco Taute, 11 Michael Killian, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Joshua Strauss (c), 7 Grant Hattingh, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Franco van der Merwe, 3 Patric Cilliers, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 CJ Van der Linde, 18 Cobus Grobbelaar, 19 Jaco Kriel, 20 Tian Meyer, 21 Ruan Combrinck, 22 James Kamana.

 

 

 

Cheetahs vs Sharks

Cheetahs:

Season record: won 4, lost 7

Home record: won 2, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 26 points (15 / 11) and concede 27 (13 / 14 )

Home its 25 ( 15 / 10) and concede 29  (11 / 18 )

 

Sharks:

Season record: won 6 , lost 5

Away record: won 2, lost 4

Scoring: Average of 25 points a game (11 in 1st half / 14 in 2nd) and concede 22  (11/ 11 ).

Away its scored 22 (10 / 12 ) and concede 26  (12 / 14 )

 

Head to Head – Sharks have won 4 of the last 6 meetings

 

Scorers:

Coenie Oosthuizen 3 tries in 9 games, Robert Ebersohn 3 in 11, Willie le Roux 4 in 10.

Cheetahs have scored 25 tries and conceded 28.

Cheetahs score their tries consistently and concede 32% in the last 20 minutes.

28% of Cheetahs tries are from front row and 20% from half backs and wing.  They have conceded 22% against frontrow and halfback, with 18% against wing

 

Riaan Viljoen 4 tries in 9 games, Lwazi Mvovo 5 tries in 11, Craig Burden 3 in 5, Jacques Botes 3 in 10.

Sharks have scored 29 tries and conceded 23,

Sharks score 31% of their tries in between 41-60 minutes and concede 35% of tries in the same period.

21% of Sharks tries scored by fullback, wing and backrow each. They concede 18% against halfbacks, centres and fullbacks and front rows.

A strange stat is that the highest scoring half has alternated from 1^st to 2^nd each match for the Sharks with it being the turn of 1^st this match.

 

Preview:

The Cheetahs picked up 7 losing bonus points last year and have already gained 6 this season. A team that lacks nothing in spirit but more often than not find themselves on the wrong end of the result – with the second half rally against the Stormers last week epitomising their character. The loss of Johan Goosen, not just the 145 points but also the direction he provided has seen the once free-scoring Cheetahs tighten up, with just 31 points scored in their 2 last games combined, when it was 29 points a game with him playing. In mitigation, those matches have been against the ultra-defensive Stormers and a scrappy Force team. Their opposition in this match had no such trouble against the Force, running in 7 tries. Much like the Reds, the Sharks picked up full points at a time when they were needed to remain in the race for a post-season place. They have won 4 of the last 6 matches against the Cheetahs but will have to work much harder to pick up points than they did against the Force.

The ref is Jonathan Kaplan. In his 7 games, the home side has won 4 times. There have been an average of 54 points (league average is 49)

The Sharks are best priced at 1.7 which is my preferred option while the Cheetahs are at 2.5

The Handicap line is 3 points which Sharks should cover.

Sharks won 34-20, easily covering the handicap

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Cameron Jacobs, 13 Robert Ebersohn, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Riaan Smit, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Justin Downey, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 George Earle, 4 Izak van der Westhuizen, 3 WP Nel, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Hercu Liebenberg, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Andries Ferreira, 19 Ashley Johnson, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Sias Ebersohn, 22 Philip Snyman.

Sharks: 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Tim Whitehead, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (capt), 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Willem Alberts, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Ryan Kankowski, 21 Frederic Michalak, 22 Meyer Bosman.

Stormers vs Waratahs

Stormers:

Season record: won 9, lost 1

Home record: won 5,

Scoring: Average of 23 points a game (15 in 1st half / 8 in 2nd) and concede 16  (7 / 9 ).

At home its scored 23 (15 / 8) and concede 17 (6 /11 )

 

Tahs:

Season record: won 4, lost 7

Away  record: won 2, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 23 points a game (12 in 1st half / 11 in 2nd) and concede 24  ( 10/14  ).

Away  its scored 19 (12/ 7) and concede 22 (9 / 13 )

 

Head to Head: Stormers have won 3 of the last 5 – with none of those matches going over 33 points.

Scorers:

Bryan Habana has 4 tries in 10 (2.5), Gio Aplon has 3 in 8 (2.5), Peter Grant 2 in 9 (4.33)

Stormers have scored 17 and conceded 11.

Stormers have scored 76% of their tries in the first half and 47% in the first 20 minutes. They have only conceded 9% of tries in the first 20 minutes but 45% in between 41-60 minutes.

Stormers score 38% from wing and 19% from centre. They concede 27% against centres and 27% against halfbacks, with 18% against wings.

Stormers have seen first half as highest scoring half in 8/10 games and have been winning at halftime in 8 matches, by an average of 8 points.

Tom Kingston has 4 tries in 11 matches (3.4), Bernard Foley 3 in 8 (4.5), Tom Carter 3 in 11, Wyclif Palu 2 in 9, Atieli Pakalani 2 in 3 (3.75), Rob Horne 2 in 9 (4.33).

Tahs have scored 24 tries and conceded 26.

Tahs score 33% of their tries in between 41-60 minutes and just 17% in the last 20 minutes. They concede 62% in the second half with 35% in the period 41-60 minutes.

29% of Tahs tries are from wingers, 20% centre and 17% backrow. They concede 36% against wingers.

Tahs have scored first try in 7/11 games and first points in 7/11. Stormers have scored first in 7 matches too.

 

Preview:

The Tahs have lost 5 games by 4 points or less this season, with the most recent loss against the Bulls putting them in 11^th place in the standings. Each of those games have seen them score the first points and the first try in all but one- but then go on to lose the match by conceding the last points in the match. They won an impressive 14 scrums and made the Bulls tackle over 170 times, yet in keeping with an underachieving season – ended up on the losing side. Tahs begin a mini-tour of South Africa against the Stormers who have won 9 of their 10 matches but have slipped to 2^nd in their conference due to a lowly tally of 1 bonus point compared to the Bulls 6 points.

Tries are at a premium in Stormers matches, with 17 scored and only 11 conceded. Their tactic of scoring early (64% of points and 76% of tries in first half) and then defending the lead is well established but is coming at a price, with backrowers dropping like flies. Canadian Jebb Sinclair starts at 8 (if he can find the stadium) and Ernst Joubert is being courted. The Stormers have averaged an 8 point winning margin at halftime but their second half margin is -1. The Cheetahs almost took advantage of this issue last week, but the Tahs are also a side with a negative second half margin this season, with -3 points the average. Am expecting a big forward battle in this one with the Stormers doing enough to pick up the 4 points.

Ref is Craig Joubert, his 4 games have seen 3 away wins and there have been an average of 48 points which is 1 off the competition average of 49 points.

The Stormers are available at 1.3 and the Tahs 4.5 with the early handicap line at 9 points.

The Stormers average winning margin is 8 and at home its 6. Them to win by 1-10 at 3 or 1-12 at 2.7 may appeal rather than the straight win line.

First half to be highest scoring at 2.1

Due to the physical nature of the Stormers defence, will look out for a sin binning as they have averaged 1 card shown per home game.

Depending on the lines, will look at unders on tries as well.

 Stormers won 19-13, with first half highest scoring. Winning margin was covered too.

Stormers:15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Jebb Sinclair,7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Don Armand, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.

Waratahs: 15 Bernard Foley, 14 Tom Kingston, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 11 Atieli Pakalani, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Brendan McKibbin, 8 Dave Dennis, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Rocky Elsom (capt), 5 Sitaleki Timani, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 John Ulugia/Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Kane Douglas, 19 Jono Jenkins, 20 Wycliff Palu, 21 Sarel Pretorius, 22 Daniel Halangahu.

 

Force vs Rebels

Force:

Season record: won 2 , lost 9 (5 in a row)

Away record: won 1, lost 4

Scoring: Average of 19  points (9 / 10) and concede 27 (14 /13 )

Home its 19 (8 / 11 ) and concede 25 (10 / 15)

 

Rebels:

Season record: won 3 , lost 7

Away  record: lost 4

Scoring: Average of 22 points a game (12 in 1st half / 10 in 2nd) and concede 30 (17 / 13 ).

Away  its scored 11 (8 /3 ) and concede 30 (15 / 15 )

Head to Head Force have lost 2 of  3 matches. Those games had 3 points or less difference and average points of 54.

Scorers:

James Stannard has 3 tries in 6, Samu Wara 3 in 8 (2.8)

Force have scored 19 and conceded 32.

Force score 68% of tries in 2^nd half, with 42% in between 41-60 minutes. They concede 84% of tries in the first 60 minutes.

26% of Force tries scored by halfbacks, with 26% scored by wing and 21% by backrow.  28% of tries are conceded against wingers, with 19% against centres and 16% against halfbacks.

 

Nick Phipps has 3 in 10 (5), Gareth Delve has 2 tries in 10 (7), Cooper Vuna 2 in 8 (2.7), Kurtley Beale 2 in 7 (5), Lachlan Mitchell 2 in 10 (4.33)

Rebels have scored 20 tries and conceded 35.

Rebels score 75% of tries in either the first or final 20 minutes of matches and concede 63% in the 20 minutes either side of halftime.

Rebels score 32% of tries from halfback, 21% by centre, 16% by wing and backrow.

They concede 23% against wingers, 23% against backrow and 18% against centres.

7/10 Rebels games have had first half as highest scoring.

Preview:

The Force have lost all 5 games since their defeat of an injury-ridden and out of sorts Reds team in round 6, and have scored an average of just 11 point per match in this run while conceding 26. Even if you remove last week’s large Sharks loss, it’s an average losing margin of 8 points. Coach Richard Graham’s contract was terminated when it became clear he would be joining the Reds next season and the Force ended up losers in a tug-of-war over Will Genia. 35 penalties conceded in the last 2 matches point to more than just minor indiscipline and they face a Rebels team that are coming off 2 good performances and full of confidence. Playing Beale at 10, seeing Mortlock return and losing Cipriani may all be factors but whatever the reasons, the Melbourne team are the clearly the team with all the momentum in this match. They have won 2 of their 3 meetings with the Force, with both victories by a single point and I see them increasing their winning record against the Perth side.

Ref is Marius Jonker, who has officiated 7 matches. 6 of them have been won by the home team and he has average a card a game. The total points per game is 65, way above the league average of 49. He was in charge of these teams in round 4, which saw 59 points scored.

Will be taking the Rebels at 1.91 for this one.  They have only scored 45 points in 4 away games which is a warning but think they will have enough to deal with a Force team that are in all kinds of trouble.

The Rebels won 32-31, continuing the trend of 1 point margins in this fixture and over points for Jonker games.

 

Western Force: 15 David Harvey, 14 Samu Wara, 13 Will Tupou, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Napolioni Nalaga, 10 Ben Seymour, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 David Pocock (captain), 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Salesi Manu, 17 Elvis Taione, 18 Phoenix Battye, 19 Lachlan McCaffrey, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Winston Stanley, 22 Alfie Mafi.

Rebels: 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Mark Gerrard, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Lachlan Mitchell, 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve (capt), 7 Michael Lipman, 6 Tim Davidson, 5 Hugh Pyle, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Rodney Blake, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Jono Owen, 18 Al Campbell, 19 Hugh Perrett, 20 Nic Stirzaker, 21 Stirling Mortlock, 22 James Hilgendorf.

Aviva Premiership Semi-Finals

Aviva Premiership Semi-Finals

This is the 3^rd consecutive year that Leicester, Northampton and Saracens have all reached the post-season.

In the 6 years of play-offs that have featured the top 4 meeting in this Semi-Final format, the team that have finished first in the league has gone to win the trophy 3 times, with the team finishing second winning it the other 3 times.

Leicester have now reached the post season and indeed the final in every year since the system changed in the 2005/6 season. They have won the trophy 3 times and the final has been contested between them and Saracens (the current holders) in the previous 2 years.

Northampton have not progressed further than the Semi-Final stage in the previous 2 seasons and they also were knocked out in consecutive seasons under the previous format – giving them a record of 0 wins from 4 attempts.

Saracens were given a heavy 50-9 defeat by Gloucester on their first Semi-Final attempt in 2007. They progressed to a final defeat in 2010, before winning it in 2011. This is therefore their 4^th appearance in 6 years.

Harlequins, much like the Saracens were given a sound beating on their Play-off debut, losing 0-17 to London Irish at home in 2009. Having topped the league, this is their second opportunity to lift the trophy.

The average points difference in these matches is 13, with it falling to 8 if only the last 4 years are looked at and 5 if only the last 2 years are studied.

The average halftime points difference is 7, with it again falling to 5 in the last 4 years and down to 2 in the last 2 years.

In the 12 semi-final clashes featuring the Top 4 format – the home side has won 9 or 75%.

 

 Leicester vs Saracens

Tigers:

Season record: won 15, drawn 1, lost 6

Home record: won 6, drawn 1, lost 3

Form: 14 wins from last 16

Scoring: Average of 29 points a game (14 in 1st half / 15 in 2nd) and concede 22 (11 / 11 ).

At home its scored 30 (15 / 15) and concede 20  (9 / 11 )

Saracens:

Season record: won 16 , drawn 1, lost 5

Away record: won 9, lost 2

Form: 5 wins from last 6

Scoring: Average of 22 points ( 11 / 11) and concede 16 (10 / 6 )

Away its 23 (11.5 / 11.5) and concede 17  (11 / 6)

Head to head – Leicester have won 19, drawn 2, lost 11 vs Sarries. At home, its won 12, drawn 1, lost 3.

Saracens have won 4 of their last 5 league games against the Tigers and the last 3 games at Welford Road.

Tigers have won 4/6 against the top 4 teams this season, losing to Quins and Saracens at home.

Saracens have won 3/6 against the top 4, winning and losing against each of their play-off rivals.

Timing of Scores:

Leicester have scored their 70 tries consistently through the quarters of matches. (24% / 23% / 24% / 29%)

They have conceded just 16% of their 45 tries in the opening 20 minutes but 33% between 41-60 minutes and indeed 60% in the second half.

Saracens have scored their 35 tries consistently through the first, third and fourth quarters of matches but just 11% between 21-40 minutes. Unusually, Sarries actually score more tries away from home with 57% of their total.

They also have conceded their 30 tries consistently through 3 quarters – this time it’s the first, second and fourth with only 10% of tries allowed between 41-60 minutes.

So the opening 20 minutes of the second half is a time when Tigers are most likely to concede a try but Saracens are least likely.

Try Scoring Positions:

Tigers have scored 28% of tries via wingers, 25% from backrow, 18% from halfbacks.

Tigers have conceded 28% of tries against wingers, 17% against backrowers,15% against centres and 15% against halfbacks.

Saracens have scored 33% from wingers, 18% from centres and 15% from backrowers.

They concede 24% of tries against wingers, 27% against backrow.

The obvious areas of scoring are therefore wing and backrow.

Try Scorers:

Alesana Tuilagi has 7 tries in 12 games (5/7 scored in second half and 5/7 scored away) – 2.75 anytime scorer

Thomas Waldrom has 6 tries in 18 (4/6 in second half and 4/6 at home) 6.0 anytime scorer

Toby Flood has 6 tries in 14 (6/6 away) 5.5 anytime scorer

Horacio Agulla has 6 tries in 15 (5/6 in second half) 3.4 anytime scorer

Billy Twelvetrees has 5 in 15 (4/5 in first half)

Julian Salvi has 4 in 20 – 7.5 anytime scorer

Steve Mafi has 4 in 21 – 6.0 anytime scorer

Ernst Joubert has 4 tries in 19 (4/4 away) – 6.5 anytime scorer

James Short has 4 tries in 20

Charlie Hodgson has 3 tries in 15 (2/3 away) – 8.5 anytime scorer

Brad Barritt has 3 tries in 15 (2/3 away) – 8.5 anytime scorer

David Strettle has 3 tries in 16 – 4.33 anytime scorer

Leicester have scored 54% of their points from tries and conceded 47% from tries scored against.

Saracens have scored 36% of their points from tries and conceded 51% from tries scored against

5 of 10 Tigers home games and 7 of 10 Saracens away games have seen the first half as highest scoring

There have been 6 cards shown in the last 5 league meetings.

The teams:

At fullback there is a real contest between experience and youth. Geordan Murphy is in his 15^th season at the Tigers and is close to 300 appearances for the team. The frequency of his elusive line breaks may be in decline but he is a wily player and has played in all but one of Leicester’s premiership finals. Alex Goode was tried out at fly-half for Saracens in seasons past, but looks far more at home in the 15 shirt. A talented playmaker he has double the amount of clean breaks, off loads and metres gained than his rival this season, but cannot compete with the big match understanding that Murphy has from 74 Irish caps.

On the wings, Horacio Agulla has 6 tries in 15 games and Alesana Tuilagi 7 in 13. Both men leave Welford Road at the end of the season and both ask serious questions of any defence. Tuilagi’s obvious physical strength is evident but a weakness may be his ability to turn and chase a kick behind him – a tactic the boot-friendly Saracens will surely use. Agulla was voted fans player of the year, so his service this season has not gone unnoticed. 8 tries in 46 appearances may not sound that impressive, but he brings a real competitive spirit and with a low centre of gravity and deceptively strong – is a tough man to bring down. David Strettle drew comparisons with David Duckham when his mazy runs in a Harlequins shirt were rewarded with England recognition. Whilst he still has the ability to beat defenders, the move to Saracens has seen his defensive abilities vastly improve. His chasing of kicks and line speed when tackling have been key weapons in the Sarries climb to the top. James Short is a strong runner who went from plying his trade on loan at the Bedford to scoring against the Tigers in the 2011 final.

The Tigers centre pairing should be Anthony Allen and Manu Tuilagi. Capped in 2006, Allen was dropped after the loss to Argentina but his form over the previous 2 seasons should see him included on the tour to South Africa. His running lines have helped fire Leicester on their current try-scoring run and Allen is more than capable in the tackle too. Tuilagi needs little introduction, a destructive broken field runner and powerful in defence, however Saracens may look to test his discipline and his sometime habit of shooting out of the line early. Brad Barritt has made 142 tackles from centre this year, and whilst the former Shark flyhalf does possess a kicking game – his role in the Saracens system is very much as a defensive lynchpin. The fitness of Charlie Hodgson will decide on who plays alongside Barritt. If ‘chargedown Charlie’ doesn’t start then expect Chris Wyles to play in the middle, with Farrell at 10. The Wyles and Barritt combination was used in last year’s final so any adjustment shouldn’t affect the side.

Farrell scored 17 points in last year’s final belying his youth with an assured performance. He will either feature at 10 or centre but will be expected to assume goal kicking responsibilities. A different player to England rival Flood, he is more likely to feature deeper and implement Saracens kicking game, along with whichever scrum half is chosen. As can be expected from a son of Andy Farrell, there is no shortage of confidence and some of his tackling evokes memories of Jonny Wilkinson. Toby Flood has put in some stellar performances lately, and behind a dominant pack has had the freedom and vision to release the many dangerous strike runners that the Tigers possess, as well as scoring a few tries himself. The query remains whether he can dictate a game in the same manner when the forwards in front of him don’t produce as much quality ball but he certainly offers a more attacking option for his country than Farrell. He is expected to play, despite hobbling off around halftime against Bath.

Flood’s regular halfback partner, Ben Youngs, was rested for that match but should feature on Saturday too. He has suffered a dip in form this season, and is starting to attract the reputation of being petulant beyond the usual yapping that all 9’s can be accused of. Much like Flood, he is at his best when going forward and providing the forwards can establish a decent platform will look to dart and test the Saracens fringe defence. At scrumhalf, Saracens have liked to rotate De Kock and Wigglesworth, famously allowing them to decide who started the final with a coin toss. Ben Spencer and Peter Stringer have also featured this season but whoever gets the nod will no doubt rely on accurate box kicks to test the Leicester defenders.

The Leicester front row has long been a source of strength with the starting combination likely to be Ayerza (surely a contender for player of the season?) , Chuter and either Castrogiovanni or Cole. Then there is Munipola, Youngs, Stankovich –the list goes on. It’s fair to say that whichever three are picked will look to dominate in the scrum and having won a few against the head in both the previous finals may feel they have an advantage on that front. Saracens have started Gill, Brits and Nieto regularly, and attention has to fall on the hooker, who carried for 100m and made 12 tackles in last year’s final and was arguably the difference between the teams. Leicester may look to use Tom Youngs off the bench to combat Brits, or to keep him quiet with a grinding set piece. They certainly don’t want the South African running from deep at them.

At lock, Geoff Parling has recovered from a series of serious injuries to establish himself as a force in the engine room both for Leicester and latterly England. Slater and Skivington have also figured in the reckoning at second row this season. The workload in the lineout will increase with the absence of Croft but as with the scrum, Tigers will look to exert dominance at the set piece. Saracens are led by the much maligned Steve Borthwick, he of the permanent bloody nose and scowl. With Saracens preference to play ‘percentage’ rugby based on territory and a kick-chase game, they need an effective lineout and restart gatherer and they have one of the best in their skipper. Mouritz Botha fills the enforcer role and will relish the physical confrontation.

The back row is an area that Leicester should have the upper hand. Tom Croft has been ruled out for a prolonged period after a collision with Nick Easter 2 weeks ago, but in Steve Mafi they have a player that arguably should have started ahead of him anyway. His harrying of Danny Care and timely try against Harlequins are evidence of what he brings to the side. Another high class injury replacement has been Salvi for Craig Newby. The Australian has made over 190 tackles and 130 carries through the regular season. At number 8, an injury to Jordan Crane has meant that Thomas Waldrom has been given full reign and he has made the most of it with a tally of 289 carries for 1008 metres. In contrast to many of his contemporaries he looks for space rather than contact and is a threat in open play. Saracens will be without both Kelly Brown and Jacques Burger, men who recorded 26 and 16 tackles respectively in the 2011 Final, as well as Andy Saull.  Jackson Wray is a fine prospect but Sarries would prefer to utilise him as an impact player rather than a starter at this point and Justin Melck would have been signed as cover rather than as first choice number 7. Ernst Joubert scored twice at Welford Road this season and twice in the last final, and Sarries will need him at his best.

 

Preview:

Leicester began the campaign with 5 losses in the first 6 games and were trailing at half-time  by 10 points at Edgeley Park in round 7. Whatever was said during that break must have worked as the Tigers scored 31 unanswered points, and barring draw in the following game at home and a loss away to the Exeter Chiefs in round 14, the East Midlands side have not looked back. They were conceding an average of 32 points in those first 6 games, which has been reduced to 18 points since the Sale match. Their accumulation of try bonus points at the end of the season perhaps went unheralded, but it has been crucial because despite winning 1 less game than Saracens it has meant they finished a point ahead of them (Leicester collected 12 bonus points to Saracens 7).

They do things a bit differently down at Saracens, swap punching each other’s lights out on a Leicestershire training field with team bonding trips to Oktoberfest or Miami and galloping backrowers with box kicks and the dreaded ‘ruck train’. The sides have contested the previous two finals so who is to say which method is best. What is certain is that the Sarries board want to establish the same legacy that Leicester have acheived, with multiple Premiership and Heineken Cup victories. Priding themselves on a solid defence and working hard off the ball, they have conceded the fewest points in the league by making the most tackles (2473 or 112 a match). Tigers may deal in tries, scoring 54% of their points in this way but Saracens are at the other end of the scale with just 36%. This style of play may therefore be more suited to tense semi-final style rugby.

An 84^th minute Geordan Murphy drop goal was the difference at Vicarage Road this season and ended a run of 4 consecutive league losses in the fixture, but the extra Leicester motivation will surely come from the 25-50 defeat at Welford Road, when after 81 minutes Joubert instructed Farrell to take a shot a goal and “go for 50 points”.

With the run Leicester are on, it’s very tough to back against them reaching their 8^th final in a row, especially when the injuries to the Saracens backrow are considered and the fact they concede 28% of their tries against 6,7 and 8 – positions that Tigers have scored 25% of their tries from.

The early winning lines are set at Tigers 1.4 and Saracens 3.5, with the handicap at -6 or -7 at 1.91.

Those handicap lines will surely be adjusted as we reach kickoff as Saracens +12 at 1.44 seems very big for a semi-final contest.

Leicester: 15 Geordan Murphy (capt), 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 12 Anthony Allen, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Julian Salvi, 6 Steve Mafi, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 George Skivington, 3 Dan Cole, 2 George Chuter, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 Logovi’i Mulipola, 18 Martin Castrogiovanni, 19 Graham Kitchener, 20 Craig Newby, 21 Sam Harrison, 22 Billy Twelvetrees, 23 Scott Hamilton.

Saracens: 15 Alex Goode, 14 David Strettle, 13 Owen Farrell, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Chris Wyles, 10 Charlie Hodgson, 9 Neil de Kock, 8 Ernst Joubert, 7 Will Fraser, 6 Jackson Wray, 5 Mouritz Botha, 4 Steve Borthwick (capt), 3 Matt Stevens, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Rhys Gill.
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 John Smit, 18 Carlos Nieto, 19 Hugh Vyvyan, 20 George Kruis, 21 Richard Wigglesworth, 22 Adam Powell, 23 James Short.

Harlequins vs Northampton

Quins:

Season record: won 17, drawn 1,  lost 4

Home record: won 9, lost 2 (only 1 loss at Stoop)

Form: 4 wins in last 5

Scoring: Average of 24 points a game (12 in 1st half / 12 in 2nd) and concede 18 (10 / 8 ).

At home its scored 28 (15 / 13 ) and concede 18 (10 / 8 )

Saints:

Season record: won 14, lost 8

Away record: won 5, lost 6

Form: Won 4 of last 5.

Scoring: Average of 24.5 points ( 13 / 11.5) and concede 17  (9 / 8 )

Away its 21 (9 /12) and concede 19  (11 / 8)

Head to head – Quins have won 11, drawn 1 and lost 16. At home, its won 7 and lost 7.

Quins have also won 4 of the last 5 games at the Stoop.

Quins have won 3/6 against top 4 teams and Saints have won 2/6 (losing away at all their play off rivals).

Timing of Scores:

Quins score their tries almost evenly through the quarters – with 56% coming in the 20 minutes either side of half time. They also score 62% of their tries at home.

They also concede their tries on an even basis through the quarters – with the final 20 minutes seeing the highest with 27%.

Saints score 39% of their tries away and 57% in the second half. The tries are spread about amongst the first, third and fourth quarters with just 11% scored between 21 and 40 minutes.

The middle period of matches is a contrast for Saints with just 19% of tries conceded between 21 and 40 minutes but 32% scored between 41 and 60 minutes

Based on those stats, it appears Saints look to keep the game tight in the 20 minutes approaching halftime but then go onto concede after the break. This is the time that Quins are more likely (just) to score.

Try scoring positions:

Quins score 22% of tries from wingers and 20% from fullback. 16% from backrow,14% from centre, 12% from halfback and 12% from frontrow

They concede 36% of tries against wingers and 22% against fullback and 18% from backrow.

Saints score 30% of tries from wingers, 17% from fullback, 17% from centre.

Saints concede 32% of tries against wingers, 26% against backrow,13% against halfbacks.

As Quins only concede 6% of tries against centres – that may negate Saints scoring options in that position. On the same note, Saints only concede 3% of tries against fullback which matches up against one of the Quins areas of strength.

From the stats, it would seem Quins may be vulnerable out wide to Northampton’s wingers and fullback whereas Saints have to watch the backrow and halfbacks scoring against them.

Try scorers:

Mike Brown has 7 tries in 20 games

Ugo Monye has 5 in 15 (4/5 at home)

Danny Care 4 in 15 (3/4 away)

Luke Wallace 4 in 15 (3/4 home)

Ross Chisholm 3 in 8 (2/3 away)

Sam Smith 3 in 14 (2/3 away)

Chris Ashton has 6 in 10 (5/6 second half)

Ben Foden 6 in 12 (5/6 first half)

Tom May 4 in 17

Phil Dowson 4 in 20 (3/4 home)

Paul Diggin 4 in 14 (3/4 second half)

Quins have scored 50% of their points from tries and conceded 42% from tries scored against

Saints have scored 47% of their points from tries and conceded 43% from tries scored against

11 cards shown in the last 6 Quins games and 22 in 22 games all season. There have been 29 cards shown in 22 Saints matches. There have been 5 cards shown in the last 3 matches between the sides with Nick Easter sin binned twice.

The Teams:

England’s first and second choice fullbacks will meet, which makes any comparison between the two players even more significant….to the television pundits anyway. Mike Brown has been nominated for numerous player of the season awards and has scored 7 tries, with 5 assists in his 20 league games. He has carried 200 times for 1400m, making 25 clean breaks with 27 offloads and beating 56 defenders. Those statistics don’t reveal the number of pressure tackles he has made, nor the pure will to win that he brings to the side. His International rival, Ben Foden has only player 12 games but has scored 6 tries and assisted 3. He has carried 118 times for 1000m, making 15 clean breaks with 14 offloads and beating 26 defenders. More laid back than his fiery rival, his running lines and vision have acted as the perfect foil to the departing Ashton for both club and country.

Chris Ashton has scored 93 tries in 111 appearances for Northampton, and after an electric 2011 Six Nations was lauded as one of the Northern Hemisphere’s deadliest finishers. A backlash to his splash celebration, disappointing World Cup and decision to link up with the ex-Wigan contingent at Saracens have cooled some of that initial praise. His 6 tries in 10 games is a more than useful return but it whether it be through lack of form or teams adjusting to his play – the tracking running lines that previously brought success have not been as effective this season. Paul Diggin receives far less attention but is a hard working member of the side. The Northampton born player has 4 tries in 14 matches this season and 62 in 147 appearances overall. Quins will be hoping that Ugo Monye is fit for this clash; 75 tries in 183 games is a healthy return, but it’s the ability to regain the ball at restarts and kick-chases, the power of the leg drive to break tackles and the strength at the breakdown that make him a key part of the starting XV. Sam Smith has 14 tries in 35 games and has recovered from a patchy December to regain a place in the team. Tom Williams will feature if Monye misses out – an intelligent player and more defensively minded than the other wingers mentioned.

The idea of a centre acting as an ‘extra’ back row is not a new one, BOD has been doing it for years now and we saw Stade take it a step further by actually playing George Smith there in a recent Amlin Cup match. In the ‘big’ games, such as Munster at Thomond Park, Saracens at Wembley etc, Quins have used George Lowe and Jordan Turner-Hall in such a fashion. In fact the whole Harlequins backline have been known to get involved at the breakdown be it Monye’s bridging over the ball winning penalties or Williams smashing into his opposite winger against Toulouse and then ‘jackaling’. Whilst JTH has already seen England action, it may be that Lowe gets the nod for the upcoming South African tour. Up against them are the Saints pairing of James Downey and George Pisi, with the Samoan rightly rewarded for an impressive debut Premiership season with player of the year nominations. Carrying 98 times for 651m and with 2 tries and 5 assists, Pisi is a real threat for the Saints in the middle of the field. Both Downey and Turner-Hall can be typecast as purely battering rams, partly due to the fact that both Saints and Quins have been known to resort to predictable inside pops to these hard running players in order to break through defences. At their best, both men are capable of offloading from the tackle and punching holes for their more elusive centre partners.

Were it not for a few indiscretions, it more than likely would have been Danny Care playing at 9 for England in the Six Nations instead of his Saints rival Lee Dickson. If reports are to be believed the Quins scrum-half has served his exile and will be included on the England tour. With Dickson having a poor outing against Ireland in the final game, there is a chance for both men to stake a claim for the shirt in this match. Dickson has been given the role of captain in recent games and whilst not as adept at the sniping runs as Care, his strengths lies in getting to the breakdown quickly, and setting the tempo for the Saints side. Much like the Harlequin, he has seen box kicks charged down and both men may be targeted in that area. In an interesting side-note, Care competes at club level for the shirt with Karl Dickson – who is Lee’s older brother. The brothers found themselves in contention for the England shirt earlier in the year and may very well find be on the same pitch for the last quarter on Saturday….(actually from kick off now that Care has been ruled out). This will be the 4th time that brothers have lined up against each other, after Mark vs Nick Easter at numner 8, Cencus vs James Johnston at tighthead (twice).

Quins have an international class 10 in Nick Evans, who surely will have felt regret seeing Stephen Donald step into the Kiwi pivot crisis and win the World Cup. Reliable goal kicking is a given but it is his managing of the game that marks him out as a class apart, along with the ability to unlock a defence through chip kicks, a turn of pace or delayed flat pass. Things are more complicated in the Saints camp with boss Jim Mallinder finding it tough to settle on a preferred flyhalf. In years gone past, the shirt was swapped from Shane Geraghty to Stephen Myler with goalkicking seemingly the key factor. Geraghty left for Brive and was replaced with Ryan Lamb and yet the indecision remains. Broken down to a simple level, there is the creative yet risky Lamb (13 starts) or the conservative Myler (9 starts). In this period of tense knock-out rugby, it looks like Saints are sticking with Myler but the lack of cohesiveness in this position may cost them.

Both sides have resisted the urge to rotate their first choice props – so Tonga’uiha & Mujati and Marler & Johnston have seen plenty of game time. It may be the result of a disappointing World Cup or seeing Sona Taumalolo steal his mantle of top try-scoring Tongan prop, but ‘Tiny’ has had a much quieter season for the Saints this year than in previous campaigns. With Hartley missing plenty of games through International duty and then suspension, the lack of his leadership and abrasive qualities have told. Joe Marler and James Johnston have put in some epic performances this season with discipline and conceding penalties at scrum time the only worries for the duo. Quins lost hooker Chris Booker to a serious knee injury in March and have rotated Joe Gray and Rob Buchanan in his absence. The Saints have also had problems in the 2 shirt with Hartley and then Sharman ruled out, and  have been playing 34 year old Andy Long there. The fact that Gray is a former Saint adds interest to the front row battle of course.

At lock, Saints will be without Lawes but will be hoping that Samu Manoa will be back from injury. He put in a man of the match effort in the win over Quins in January with some bone-crunching hits. Christian Day and Mark Sorenson started the last match and look the likely combo to start with both men having 35 lineout successes and 7 steals. For Quins, George Robson has won 80 lineouts, complimented with 92 carries and 100 tackles. He has captained the side this season and looks another player on the periphery of an International call up. Robson’s partner in crime in the second row is Ollie Kohn, who adds real bulk to the scrum and rolling maul and like all good toilers in the engine room – his best work oft goes unnoticed.

Tom Wood is sidelined with a foot injury and Calum Clark will also be missing for the away side, serving a ban for an arm bar in the LV Cup final. In his absence, a fellow ex-Leeds academy player in James Craig has impressed. The Ulster-bound Roger Wilson and Phil Dowson make up the rest of the Saints backrow. Dowson finally received full international recognition after seasons of captaining the Saxons at the level below but perhaps it came a year too late. A smart player, he has possibly suffered from the  number of backrow changes at the club this year and whilst still having a good season – has not hit the level he reached last year, Nick Easter was discarded from the new England squad and has responded with some of the best rugby of his career. A player that polarises fan opinion, his offloading and old-school mentality have kept the Quins run going. If the scoreline is close at the end of the match, it will invariably be him that gives away the cynical penalty and is sinbinned to protect the lead. Fa’asavalu offers a real physical edge to the pack, and terrorised the Bath playmakers last month with big hits. As well as captaining the side, Chris Robshaw has carried 177 times and made 178 tackles in his 16 league matches and in several games even acted as first receiver so is clearly a key man for the team. Winning Aviva Player of the Season, to go with his 2009 award, and also nominated for the RPA award (along with Mike Brown, Nick Evans and George Pisi from this match and Leicester’s Steve Mafi), the decision to omit him from the 2011 World Cup squad is looking increasingly bizarre.

Preview:

Both sides can look to recent matches for inspiration in this contest – Quins ended a long Saints unbeaten home record in 2011 with a dogged effort that saw them reduced to 13 men at one point and recorded a 13 point victory at the Stoop this season, forcing their opponents to make double the amount of tackles they made. Northampton can look to a 21 point win in January where they prevented a Nick Evans-less Quins team from scoring a try and won the physical battle on that occasion

What will count against Saints for this clash, is an away record that has seen them lose 5 of their 10 games. The absence of Lawes, Clark and Wood in the forwards, along with lack of game time for Manoa and Hartley reveals Northampton will have to go to the Stoop without their first choice pack. Quins have worked on making their home ground a fortress and (like the Saints) have won 9 of their 11 home games. Usually having Semi-Final experience would act as a great advantage for a side, but Northampton have in fact lost their 4 previous matches at this stage. If you take into account the Heineken Cup Final turnaround and two painful defeats to rivals Leicester then there is a question whether Jim Mallinder can take Northampton to the next stage.

Usually having Semi-Final experience would act as a great advantage for a side, but Northampton have in fact lost their 4 previous matches at this stage. If you take into account the Heineken Cup Final turnaround and two painful defeats to rivals Leicester then there is a question whether Jim Mallinder can take Northampton to the next stage.

Under the canny stewardship of Conor O’Shea and led by player of the season Robshaw, the off-loading Quins will see this as an excellent chance to reach their first premiership final. The side will also be full of confidence after seeing 9 members named in the England squad. If it comes down to who can game-manage better on the day, then Nick Evans will surely have the upper hand over Myler or Lamb and with home advantage, the Harlequins faithful should see a win.

Quins have been priced at 1.67 to win, with Saints at 2.88 with Sportingbet.

The handicap is between -2 and -4 at 1.91 and while Saints +9 at 1.44 looks value for a semi-final, the -2 for Quins is where the money should go.

Harlequins: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Tom Williams, 13 George Lowe, 12 Jordan Turner-Hall, 11 Sam Smith, 10 Nick Evans, 9 Karl Dickson, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Chris Robshaw (capt), 6 Maurie Fa’asavalu, 5 George Robson, 4 Olly Kohn, 3 James Johnston, 2 Joe Gray, 1 Joe Marler.
Replacements: 16 Rob Buchanan, 17 Mark Lambert, 18 Will Collier, 19 Tomas Vallejos, 20 Tom Guest, 21 Richard Bolt, 22 Rory Clegg, 23 Matt Hopper.

Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 George Pisi, 12 James Downey, 11 Paul Diggin, 10 Ryan Lamb, 9 Lee Dickson (capt), 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Phil Dowson, 6 James Craig, 5 Christian Day, 4 Mark Sorenson, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Andy Long, 1 Soane Tonga’uiha.
Replacements: 16 Ross McMillan, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Paul Doran-Jones, 19 Ben Nutley, 20 Teimana Harrison, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Stephen Myler, 23 Tom May.

Super 15 – Round 12

Blues vs Lions

Blues:

Season record: won 1, lost 9 (7 in a row)

Home record: lost 4

Scoring: Average of 20 points ( 11 / 9. ) and concede 27 (16 / 11 )

Home its 19 (12 / 7) and concede 24 (16 / 8)

Lions:

Season record: won 1, lost 8 ( 8 losses in a row)

Away record: lost 3

Scoring: Average of 19 points a game (8 in 1st half / 11 in 2nd) and concede 29 (18 /11 ).

Away its scored 15 (4 / 11 ) and concede 31  (20 / 11 )

Head to Head: Blues have won the last 5 matches against the Lions, at an average of 27 points, although the most recent 2011 match was by 9 points.

 

Scorers:

Benson Stanley has 3 tries in 10 matches (2.2 anytime scorer)

Cobus Grobbelaar has 3 in 9 games.

Blues have scored 16 tries and conceded 31. Lions have scored 15 and conceded 29.

Blues score 31% of tries in first 20 minutes but concede 39% in that period too.

Lions score 40% of their tries in the last 20 minutes and 67% in the second half. They  concede 62% of tries in the first half and 41% between 21-40 minutes.

31% of Blues tries are from centres and the concede 32% from that position and 26% from wingers.

67% of Lions tries are from their forwards – 27% backrow, 20% locks, 20% front row. They concede 69% of tries against backs with 34% against wingers.

8/10 Blues and 5/9 Lions games have seen first half highest scoring

Blues have trailed at halftime in 9 of their 10 matches as have the Lions.

Preview:

The Lions and Blues are both stranded at the base of their respective conferences, with lowly points tallies padded out by ‘wins’ in their bye weeks (the Lions have only scored 6 competition points without them). It’s possible that this Blues season will be studied in the future as an example of how not to wage a successful league campaign – with muddled selection, off-field issues, handling errors and missed tackles all to the fore. At least they don’t have the spectre of relegation and being replaced by another side like the Lions do. How then to decide who wins between 2 struggling sides? The Blues have won the last 5 meetings comfortably, and have home advantage but the Lions managed to score 3 tries against the Chiefs last weekend and are strong in the lineout (the Kiwi commentators seemed obsessed with the height of the Lions’ locks) – an area the Blues have had problems with.

Its normally advisable to give 2 losing teams a swerve, unless you fancy the draw at 34’s  or either halftime or fulltime to be a draw at 10’s..

But in this case the handicap lines look a bit generous in favour of the Lions with +10 at evens. It may be that an alternative handicap such as +15 at 1.5 may be useful to pad out an accumulator too.

Not sure that the winning lines for the Blues will attract much attention at a low 1.29 but  Lions at 4.5 are worth a small play.

 

Blues: 15 Hadleigh Parkes, 14 David Raikuna, 13 Ma’a Nonu, 12 Michael Hobbs, 11 Benson Stanley, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Luke Braid (c), 5 Ali Williams, 4 Liaki Moli, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Tevita Mailau.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Angus Ta’avao, 18 Filo Paulo, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Lachie Munro, 22 Sherwin Stowers.

Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Deon Van Rensburg, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Jaco Taute, 11 Michael Killian, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Joshua Strauss (c), 7 Grant Hattingh, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Franco Van der Merwe, 3 Patric Cilliers, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 CJ Van der Linde, 18 Cobus Grobbelaar, 19 Jaco Kriel, 20 Tian Meyer, 21 Ruan Combrinck, 22 James Kamana.

 

Tahs  vs Bulls

Tahs:

Season record: won 4, lost 6

Home record: won 2, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 23 points a game (12 in 1st half / 11 in 2nd) and concede 24  ( 10/14  ).

At home its scored 28 (13/ 15) and concede 27 (13 / 14 )

Bulls:

Season record: won 7 , lost 2

Away record: won 3 lost 1

Scoring: Average of 35 points (15 / 20.) and concede 23 ( 13 / 10  )

Away its 35 (20 / 15) and concede 23 (16 / 7)

 

Head to Head: The Bulls have won the last 5 matches by an average of 11 points.

 

Scorers:

Tom Kingston has 4 tries in 10 matches (2.4 anytime scorer) , Bernard Folety 3 in 8, Tom Carter 3 in 10, Wyclif Palu 2 in 8 (4.5 anytime)

Bjorn Basson has 7 tries in 9 games (2.5 anytime scorer), CJ Stander 4 in 8 (5 anytime scorer) , Zane Kirchner 4 in 9 ( 4 anytime) and Wynard Oliver 3 in 8.

Tahs have scored 22 tries and conceded 23. Bulls have scored 33 and conceded 21.

Tahs score 36% of their tries in between 41-60 minutes and just 14% in the last 20 minutes. They concede 61% in the second half with 35% in the period 41-60 minutes.

Bulls only scored 15% of tries in first 20 minutes but 60% in last 20 minutes of each half They concede 71% of tries in first and last 20 minutes of matches.

27% of Tahs tries are from wingers, 18% centre and 18% backrow. They concede 36% against wingers.

30% of Bulls tries are from wingers and 21% from backrow. 29% of tries they concede are scored by halfbacks, 24% wing and 19% backrow.

Bulls have outscored opponents in 8/9 second halves and seen the opponents reach 10 points first in 6/9 games and in the last 5.

Tahs have scored first try in 7/10 games and first points in 7/10

Preview:

Its round 11 and as the Tahs have only beat the Force, Rebels and Sharks, they are fast running out of time to get anything out of this season, even if you take into account the relative weakness of the Australian conference. The major issues appear to be at the breakdown and with finding precision in attack, evidenced by forcing the Brumbies to make 190 tackles, yet not being able to score a try. A Rob Horne & Adam Ashley-Cooper partnership at centre will help beef up the defence, but they are missing Mitchell and Turner badly on the wings as well as the flair that their former player Kurtley Beale showed against the Bulls last week. The Bulls lost 3 of their 4 games on tour last year and were close to an upset against the Rebels last week, with a couple of Morne Steyn penalties the difference. Allowing the opposition to reach 10 points before them in the last 5 games is making the task harder, and in the Waratahs, they are playing a side that has scored the first try in the majority of their matches. It wouldn’t surprise for the South African team to trail early before rallying and making it 6 wins in a row against the Waratahs.

The bookies are struggling to split these teams but I will take Bulls to win at best price of evens and with +2 points at 1.8

Tahs to reach 10 points first at 1.9 is worth a go considering the Bulls habit of conceding early points.

 

Waratahs: 15 Daniel Halangahu, 14 Tom Kingston, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 11 Atieli Pakalani, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Rocky Elsom (c), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 John Mann-Rea, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Sitaleki Timani, 19 Lopeti Timani, 20 Dave Dennis, 21 Brendan McKibbin, 22 Tom Carter.

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 CJ Stander, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dawie Steyn.
Replacements: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Rayno Gerber, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 JJ Engelbrecht.

Highlanders vs Hurricanes

Highlanders:

Season record: won 7 , lost 3

Home record: won 4 , lost 1

Scoring: Average of 24 points a game (11 in 1st half / 13 in 2nd) and concede 23  (15 / 8 ).

At home its scored 25 (12.5 / 12.5 ) and concede 20  (12 / 8 )

Canes:

Season record: won 5 , lost 5

Away record: won 3, lost 2

Scoring: Average of 29 points ( 17 / 12 ) and concede 29 (16 / 13 )

Away its 28 (16 / 12) and concede 29  (14 / 15)

Head to Head: Highlanders have won the last 3 contests, having lost the 3 previous. The average winning margin from those games is 4 points and the match this year had a 2 point margin.

 

Scorers:

Adam Thompson has 3 tries in 9, Aaron Smith 3 in 10, Jimmy Cowan 2 in 9, Shaun Treeby 2 in 6, Kurt Baker 2 in 3, Ben Smith 2 in8.

Andre Taylor has 8 tries in 10,  TJ Perenara has 5 in 9, Conrad Smith 4 in 10, Cory Jane 3 in 9.

Highlanders have scored 23 tries and conceded 16. Canes have scored 34 tries and conceded 26.

Highanders have scored 65%  of tries in the second half and concede 62.5% in the first half, with 44% in the first 20 minutes.

Canes have scored 59% of tries in the first half and 38% in between 21-40 minutes. They concede 31% in the last 20 minutes, but just 15% between 41-60 minutes.

Highlanders have scored 30% of tries scored from halfback, with 17% from centre and 17% from backrow. They concede 38% against wingers

Canes have scored 24% from fullback, 21% from centre and 21% from halfback. They concede 28% against centres and 24% against front rows.

Highlanders have seen first half highest scoring in 7/10 games, and Canes in 6/10. 8/9 of the two sides matches against fellow Kiwi sides have seen first half as highest scoring.

Preview:

It may sound over-dramatic to highlight this as a crucial match for the Highlanders, a team with a 7 and 3 record. However, in a highly competitive conference (ignoring the Blues) they are alongside the Crusaders and only just ahead of their opponents in this match, due to the Wellington team’s habit of collecting try bonus points. It’s worth remembering that it was around this time, that their season went into decline last year too. Having made a habit of winning matches late on, and by a small margin, the Highlanders were a fortunate to beat the Cheetahs and then came unstuck against the Sharks. They play a game that involves plenty of possession and a look at the attacking stats shows their players dominating the carries and metres run tables. That possession isn’t always converted into points though and it may be that a kicking game needs to be implemented more regularly – rather than trying to play rugby in their own half at the risk of penalties and turnovers. The Canes backline all offer a line-breaking threat, with top scorer Andre Taylor the most obvious candidate. The danger in this match will lie up front for the Wellington team, both in the scrum and the breakdown – where they have come off worse against recent opponents.  Highlanders have won all 4 of their matches against Kiwi rivals by less than 5 points this year and another close match can be expected.

Highlanders are priced at 1.67 to win and the Canes 2.5

The handicap is -4 at 1.91 – except for Sportingbet where it is a generous -2 at 1.91

Highlanders to win by 1-5 points at 5.5 seems to be a decent angle for this match.

 

Rebels v Crusaders

Rebels:

Season record: won 2 , lost 7

Home record: won 2 , lost 3

Scoring: Average of 21 points a game (12 in 1st half / 9 in 2nd) and concede 31 (17 / 14 ).

At home its scored 29 (16 / 13 ) and concede 32 (19 / 13 )

Crusaders:

Season record: won 7, lost 3

Away record: won 4, lost 2

Scoring: Average of 28 points (14 / 14 ) and concede 22 (11 / 11 )

Away its 31 ( 16 / 15)  and concede 23  (12 / 11)

 

 

Scorers:

Gareth Delve has 2 tries in 9 (7.5 anytime) , Cooper Vuna 2 in 9 (3.25 anytime) Kurtley Beale 2 in 6 (4.33 anytime), Lachlan Mitchell 2 in 9 (6.5 anytime)

Robbie Fruean has 6 in 10 (2.62 anytime) , Israel Dagg 4 in 10, Zac Guildford 3 in 8 (evens)

Rebels have scored 17 tries and conceded 34. Crusaders have scored 22 and conceded 20.

Rebels score 70% of tries in either the first or final 20 minutes of matches and concede 62% in the 20 minutes either side of halftime.

Crusaders score 82% of their tries in the first 60 minutes of matches. and concede tries on an even basis.

Rebels split their tries mainly between wingers, centre and backrow – with each accounting for 19%. They concede 24% against wingers, 24% against backrow and 18% against centres.

Crusaders score 32% from wing and 32% from centre. They concede 25% against front row, 20% each against backrow, wing and centre.

6/9 Rebels and 6/10 Saders games have first half as highest scoring.

Preview:

The Rebels pushed the Bulls hard last week, but ultimately came up short. The match is being heralded as a turning point in the Melbourne franchise’s history which may be premature, considering it was still a loss. They are ‘rewarded’ with that performance with a match against the Crusaders who have collected a 7 win, 3 loss record without really impressing yet. There is a school of thought that the mark of a good team is one that can win a game without playing that well – but time will tell whether that is the case here or simply that the Saders are not the force they once were. Richie McCaw will start but there have been plenty of changes, the most significant may be the absence of tackling machine Matt Todd and benched inspirational leader Kieran Read. The Rebels aimed plenty of carries at the Bulls halfbacks, forcing them to make 27 tackles between them, so Taylor and Heinz may be targeted. The Crusaders would have highlighted this fixture as one to rest players and hopefully pick up the try bonus point win and whilst they will be big favourites to pick up a victory – the margin may be closer than expected

The Crusaders are available at just 1.14 and the optimistic may like the Rebels at 8.5 with Sportingbet.

The handicap line is between 13 and 15 points and it may be that Rebels +15 at 1.91 is a suitable option for this one. Taking over total points 53.5 at 1.9 is also an acceptable call as Rebels home matches have averaged 61 and no fewer than 54.

Rebels: 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Mark Gerrard, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Lachlan Mitchell, 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve (C), 7 Michael Lipman, 6 Tim Davidson, 5 Hugh Pyle, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Rodney Blake, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Jono Owen, 18 Al Campbell, 19 Ryan Hodson, 20 Nic Stirzaker, 21 James Hilgendorf, 22 Stirling Mortlock.

Crusaders: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Dan Carter, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Tom Taylor, 9 Willi Heinz, 8 Luke Whitelock, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Ryan Crotty, 22 Israel Dagg.

Sharks vs Force

Sharks:

Season record: won 5 , lost 5

Home record: won 3, lost 1

Scoring: Average of 23 points a game (10 in 1st half / 13 in 2nd) and concede 23  (11/ 12 ).

At home its scored 25 (11 / 14 ) and concede 19  (10.5 / 8.5 )

Force:

Season record: won 2 , lost 8 (4 in a row)

Away record: won 1, lost 4

Scoring: Average of 20  points (9 / 11) and concede 25 (13 /12 )

Away its 20 (10 / 10 ) and concede 24 (16 / 8)

Head to Head – Sharks have won the last 4 meetings.

Scorers:

Riaan Viljoen 4 tries in 9 games, Lwazi Mvovo 3 tries in 10, Craig Burden 2 in 4.

James Stannard has 3 tries in 6, Samu Wara 2 in 7,

Sharks have scored 22 tries and conceded 22, Force have scored 18 and conceded 25.

Sharks score 32% of their tries in between 41-60 minutes and concede 36% of tries in the same period.

24% of Sharks tries scored by fullback and 24% from backrow. They concede 19% against halfbacks, centres and fullbacks and frontrows.

Force score 67% of tries in 2^nd half, with 44% in between 41-60 minutes. They concede 88% of tries in the first 60 minutes.

28% of Force tries scored by halfbacks, with 22% scored by wing and 22% by backrow.  28% of tries are conceded against wingers, with 20% against centres and 20% against halfbacks.

Preview:

The Sharks beat the Highlanders, with a 100% goal kicking and set piece display and all 28 points from Patrick Lambie. The flyhalf has contributed 47% of the team’s total points this season and is well supported by a pack that includes the du Plessis brothers and the returning ‘Beast’. In the backrow, Marcell Coetzee has made 152 tackles and Keegan Daniel has eaten up the metres with his carrying. Consistency has been the problem, and with a 5win, 5 loss record, the Sharks may require bonus point wins. Having scored 1 try in their last 2 home matches, that may be a big ask. The Force rely heavily on their locks and backrow, with those back 5 forwards making 67 tackles last week and 113 before that. Sharpe has won 15 more lineouts than anyone else and Pocock and Hodgson are real nuisances at the breakdown. Coach-less and coming off a bad tempered loss to the Cheetahs, the Force have been linked with John Plumtree in the Australian press, a tactic possibly timed to unsettle the Sharks? The Force have the ability to keep this game close but ultimately it should be a home win.

The Sharks are priced at 1.18, which is another price that is too small to attract interest. The Force at 7′s is tempting on a value basis because if the match starts slow you can trade out in-running.

Will probably have to wait for all markets to be up to find the betting angle for this one.

 

Stormers vs Cheetahs

Stormers:

Season record: won 8, lost 1

Home record: won 4,

Scoring: Average of 23 points a game (14 in 1st half / 9  in 2nd) and concede 16  (7 / 9 ).

At home its scored 26 (15 / 11) and concede 18 (7 /11 )

Cheetahs:

Season record: won 4, lost 6

Away record: won 2, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 27 points (16 / 11) and concede 29  (13 / 16 )

Away its 30 ( 12.5 / 17.5) and concede 29  (15 / 14 )

Head to Head – Stormers have won their last 5 against the Cheetahs

Scorers:

Bryan Habana has 4 tries in 9 (2.25 anytime), Gio Aplon has 3 in 7 (2.25 anytime), Peter Grant 2 in 8 (4.5 anytime).

Coenie Oosthuizen 3 tries in 8 games (7.5 anytime scorer), Robert Ebersohn 3 in 10 (5.5 anytime), Willie le Roux 3 in 9 (3.3 anytime)

Cheetahs have scored 23 tries and conceded 27. Stormers have scored 16 and conceded 9.

Cheetahs score their tries consistently and concede 33% in the last 20 minutes.

30% of Cheetahs tries are from front row and 22% from halfbacks. They have conceded 22% against those same positions, 19% from wingers and 15% against centres.

Stormers have scored 75% of their tries in the first half and 50% in the first 20 minutes. They have only conceded 11% of tries in the first 20 minutes but 44% in between 41-60 minutes.

Stormers score 40% from wing and 20% from centre. They concede 33% against centres and 33% against halfbacks.

Stormers have seen first half as highest scoring half in 7/9 games

Preview:

The Stormers have won 8 of their 9 matches, usually with a pattern of scoring early and then resolutely defending in the second half. They have scored 75% of their tries and 62% of total points in the first half, and average a 7 point lead at halftime. These defensive efforts have led to wear and tear on the squad, with Canadian Jebb Sinclair called up as cover. A negative is that they have collected the fewest bonus points in the competition, which explains how the Bulls have overtaken them, even though they’ve won 1 less game. The Cheetahs are adjusting to the rest of the season without Johan Goosen. He accounted for 52% of their points, placing a great burden on Sias Ebersohn now. Oosthuizen, Brussow and co will have to match physicality with the Stormers pack in order to get anything out of the game. The Western Province team are coming off a bye week and will back their defence to limit a Cheetahs side that may struggle to repeat earlier high scoring outings without Goosen. A sixth consecutive win over the Cheetahs looks likely for the Western Province side.

The Stormers at 1.22 is another of those low prices that is only really useful for padding out other bets. The Cheetahs at 7′s is big – but betting against the Stormers isn’t that advisable.

Stormers to reach 10 points at 1.44 and be winning at halftime at 1.4 are better value than the outright.

The -10 handicap at 1.91 should just about be covered but the ht handicap of -4.5 at 1.9 may be more suitable.

First half to be highest scoring is 2.2

Stormers: 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker (c), 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Deon Fourie, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Jebb Sinclair, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Cameron Jacobs, 13 Robert Ebersohn, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Justin Downey, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Izak van der Westhuizen, 4 George Earle, 3 WP Nel, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Hercu Liebenberg, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Andries Ferreira, 19 Ashley Johnson, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Philip Snyman.

 

Reds vs Chiefs

Reds:

Season record: won 5, lost 5

Home record: won 3 , lost 1

Scoring: Average of 19 points a game (10 in 1st half / 9  in 2nd) and concede 24  (9 / 15 ).

At home its scored 20 (11 / 9) and concede 15 (7 /8 )

Chiefs:

Season record: won 9, lost 1 ( 9 wins in a row)

Away record: won 4

Scoring: Average of 27 points (14 / 13) and concede 18  (7 / 11 )

Away its 25.( 11 / 14) and concede 19  (6/ 13 )

Head to Head – Reds have won their last 2 games against the Chiefs, having lost the 3 previous encounters.

Scorers:

Dom Shipperley 5 tries in 10 games, Scott Higginbotham 3 in 9.

Sona Taumalolo has 6 tries in 10 games, Lelia Masaga has 5 in 7.

Reds have scored 17 tries and conceded 24 tries. Chiefs have scored 28 and conceded 12.

Reds have scored 89% of tries in the first 60 minutes. They have only conceded 8% of tries in first 20 minutes. In 2^nd half they let in 66% of their tries.

Reds have scored 29% of tries from wingers and 24% from backrow. They concede 30% against backrow and 22% against halfbacks and wingers respectively.

Chiefs have score 32% of their tries in the last 20 minutes and concede 75% in the second half.

Chiefs have scored 29% of tries from wing, 29% from front row and 18% from halfback.

They concede 25% against wingers, 25% against second row and 17 % against halfback and backrow.

The Chiefs have led at halftime in 9 of their 10 games.

Preview:

It was very much a case of ‘job done’ for the Chiefs as they picked up 5 points against the Lions while resting a few players. Conceding 15 penalties and being forced to make 140 plus tackles wouldn’t have been part of the plan though. Aaron Cruden continues to manage the exciting backline with confidence and the team are 7 points clear at the top of their conference with 4 games against Kiwi sides to come. The Reds have beaten their conference rivals and the Blues but lost to the teams ranked higher than them. A reaction to that nightmare away tour has seen the Reds look to keep games tight – with their last 4 matches averaging just 32 total points, down from 50 in the game before. They will feel that refereeing decisions went against them against the Crusaders and there are plenty of side stories in this clash, given the way the Reds have dealt with SBW in the past and the sledging of Cruden (then a Canes player) in 2011 before he lined up a match-winning penalty.

The Chiefs at 1.91 isn’t that generous a price but will back it and wait for later markets to turn up.

Aviva Prem – round 22

Looking at the last 3 years’ worth of final round matches in the Aviva Prem, the average winning margin in a match is 20 points and only 4 of the 18 matches have seen scorelines within 7 points.

Even if you remove the two highest scoring and two lowest scoring matches then the margin is still 16 points.

This season has seen an average winning margin of 10 points.

Leicester vs Bath

Tigers:

Season record: won 14, drawn 1, lost 6

Home record: won 6, drawn 1, lost 3

Form: 13 wins from last 15

Scoring: Average of 29.4 points a game (14.7 in 1st half / 14.7 in 2nd) and concede 22.4  (11.2 / 11.2 ).

At home its scored 30.3 (16.4 / 13.9) and concede 22.1  (10.6 / 11.5 )

Bath:

Season record: won 9 , lost 12

Away record: won 3, lost 7

Form: 1 win in last 4 games.

Scoring: Average of 16.85 points ( 7.6 / 9.25) and concede 18.75 (9.95 / 8.8 )

Away its 13.1 (5.9 / 7.2) and concede 17.4  (9.7 / 7.7)

Head to head – Leicester have won 19, drawn 3, lost 9 vs Bath. At home, its won 13, drawn 1, lost 1.

Tigers have won 4/7 against the middle 4 teams and Bath have lost 7/8 against the top 4.

Scorers:

Leicester have scored their 67 tries consistently through the quarters of matches. They concede just 15% of their 45 tries in the opening 20 minutes but 33% between 41-60 minutes and indeed 60% in the second half.

Tigers have scored 28% of tries via wingers, 26% from backrow, 18% from halfbacks.

Tigers have conceded 28% of tries against wingers, 17% against backrowers,15% against centres and 15% against halfbacks.

Bath have also scored their 32 tries consistently but concede 77% of the 26 tries in the opening and closing 20 minutes of matches. Its only 4% in between 41-60 minutes, so they are defensively strong in the period that Tigers concede their most tries.

Bath have scored 27% from wingers, 23% from halfbacks and 20% from frontrowers.

Bath concede 38% of tries against wingers, 21% against backrow.

Alesana Tuilagi has 7 tries in 11 games (5/7 scored in second half and 5/7 scored away)

Thomas Waldrom has 6 tries in 18 (4/6 in second half and 4/6 at home)

Toby Flood has 6 tries in 13 (6/6 away)

Horacio Agulla has 5 tries in 14 (4/5 in second half)

Michael Claassens has 4 tries in 21 (4/4 at home)

Leicester have scored 54% of their points from tries and conceded 48% from tries scored against.

Bath have scored 44% of their points from tries and conceded 34% from tries scored against

7 cards shown in the last 4 Bath games and 6 in the last 3 Tigers matches.

Preview:

These traditional powerhouses have topped the league 17 times in the last 24 years (Leicester 10 to Bath’s 7), but while Bath’s period of dominance was in the early 1990’s, Tigers have figured in the title race since then. The East Midlands side have featured in the last 7 Finals and look on course to make it 8, recovering from a stuttering start to win 13 of their last 15 games and hovering up try bonus points at will.

They have incredible squad depth, and Flood and Allen are carving defences up to allow the back row and wingers to score (Bath concede 57% of tries against these positions too). There is also a great resilience about a team that can go 23-10 down at the league leaders and go on to win the match by 10 points as they did against Quins.

Bath have to pick up a bonus point win and hope that Sale collect no points to qualify for the Heineken Cup next season, an unlikely outcome (only 8 tries scored away all season) ,not helped by Sam Vesty’s premature try celebration / horror show, against Wasps which cost the side a bonus point. Bath have seen some low scoring games recently with 106 total points scored in the last 4 and have only conceded 26 tries all season. In comparison, Tigers have scored 162 points on their own in their last 4 matches!

With 13 wins from 15 league meetings against Bath at Welford Road and a home semi-final at stake, expect Leicester to make a statement to their play-off rivals.

Tigers are 1.12 to win this and Bath a whopping 13′s at Sportingbet.

The handicap line is between Leicester -14 at 1.91 and Bath +16 at 1.91 and I will be looking at Tigers -14

Depending on price, will be backing the Tigers wingers and backrow to score.

Tigers won 28-3 so covered the handicap – Agulla scored but let down by no tries from Waldrom and Tuilagi.

Leicester: 15 Geordan Murphy (c), 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 12 Anthony Allen, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Ben Youngs,8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Julian Salvi, 6 Steve Mafi, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 George Skivington, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 George Chuter, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 Logovi’i Mulipola, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Craig Newby, 20 Calum Green, 21 Sam Harrison, 22 Billy Twelvetrees, 23 Scott Hamilton.

Bath: 15 Nick Abendanon, 14 Olly Woodburn, 13 Matt Banahan, 12 Olly Barkley, 11 Tom Biggs, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Michael Claassens, 8 Simon Taylor, 7 Carl Fearns, 6 Josh Ovens, 5 Ben Skirving, 4 Dave Attwood, 3 David Wilson, 2 Lee Mears, (c) 1 Nathan Catt.
Replacements: 16 Ross Batty, 17 Charlie Beech, 18 Duncan Bell, 19 Will Spencer, 20 Guy Mercer, 21 Mark McMillan, 22 Sam Vesty, 23 Kyle Eastmond.

London Irish vs Gloucester

London Irish:

Season record: won 7, drawn 1,  lost 13 (9 Losing Bonus Points)

Home record: won 5, lost 5

Form: 1 win in last 8 (last match)

Scoring: Average of 22 points a game (11.19 in 1st half / 10.8 in 2nd) and concede 23.7 (10.5 / 13.2 ).

At home its scored 26.9 (12.9 / 14 ) and concede 25.2 (10 / 15.2 )

Gloucester:

Season record: won 8, drawn 1, lost 12 (9 Losing Bonus Points)

Away record: won 2, drawn 1, lost 7

Form: Lost the last 5 in a row.

Scoring: Average of 20.8 points ( 11.7 / 9.1) and concede 21.6  (11.2/ 10.4 )

Away its 16.1 (9.3 /6.8) and concede 23.5  (12.8 / 10.7)

Head to head – London Irish have won 11 and lost 20. At home, its won 10 and lost 5 – and they have won the last 4.

Irish have lost 5/7 against middle 4 teams and Gloucester have lost 4/7 against bottom 4 teams.

London Irish have scored 58% of their 40 tries between 21-60 minutes and Gloucester have scored 55% of their 40 tries in that same period.

Irish concede 61% of 41 tries in the second half and 34% in the last 20 minutes.

Irish score 33% of tries from wingers and 28% from centres. They concede 32% of tries against wingers

Gloucester have conceded their 41 tries evenly through the quarters.

Gloucester score 30% of tries from wingers, 17.5% from fullback, 17.5% from frontrow.

Gloucester concede 22% of tries against wingers, 20% against backrow,17% against centres.

Jonathan Joseph has 5 tries in 13 games (4/5 in second half)

Topsy Ojo has 5 tries in 17 games (4/5 at home)

Delon Armitage has 4 tries in 12 (3/4 at home)

Sailosi Tagicakibau has 3 tries in 9 (2/3 away)

Jonny May has 6 tries in 18 (5/6 in first half)

Charlie Sharples has 6 tries in 19

Akapusi Qera has 4 in 14 (3/4 in second half)

Irish have scored 44% of their points from tries and conceded 41% from tries scored against

Gloucester have scored 46% of their points from tries and conceded 45% from tries scored against

Preview:

Gloucester lost an away play-off semi-final by 2 points last year at Saracens and Irish were bested by just a single point by Leicester in the 2009 final, so for the teams to be adrift this year, in 8^th and 9^th place respectively will hurt.  The Cherry and Whites have lost their head coach and are on a run of 5 consecutive losses while London Irish will see Mike Catt depart for England duty and lost 7 in a row before the Worcester victory.

With an end of season match like this, there is always an optimistic hope that with the pressure off, departing players like Bob Casey wanting to leave with a win, and younger ones looking to impress – that the sides will conspire to produce a free-flowing exciting game, (keep an eye on Sailosi Tagicakibau who has beaten 44 defenders in just 9 matches this season!).

The other side of the coin of course, is a dour affair with players just going through the motions. Either way, Gloucester have been poor on the road, so am expecting a home win (with hopefully plenty of tries).

Irish are 1.53 to win and -3 at 1.91 is available on the handicap – both of which are reasonable prices.

Gloucester are 2.8 and can find +6 at 1.91 if you want to back the away side.

Will be backing tries and points in this one with a look at the anytime scorer markets for both sides’s wingers.

 Irish won 52-18 covering the win line and handicap and the over points / tries were easily met.

London Irish: 15 Tom Homer, 14 Delon Armitage, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Joe Ansbro, 11 Sailosi Tagicakibau, 10 Steve Shingler, 9 Darren Allinson, 8 Ofisa Treviranus 7 David Sisi, 6 Jamie Gibson, 5 Bob Casey (Captain), 4 Bryn Evans, 3 Leo Halavatau, 2 David Paice, 1 Max Lahiff.
Replacements: 16 James Buckland, 17 Paulica Ion, 18 Faan Rautenbach, 19 Matt Garvey, 20 Kieran Roche, 21 Marland Yarde, 22 Adrian Jarvis, 23 Paul Hodgson

Gloucester: 15 Tom Voyce, 14 Charlie Sharples, 13 Jonny May, 12 Mike Tindall, 11 Ollie Phillips, 10 Freddie Burns, 9 Dave Lewis, 8 Matt Cox, 7 Alasdair Strokosch, 6 Tom Savage, 5 Alex Brown, 4 Jim Hamilton (capt), 3 Rupert Harden, 2 Darren Dawidiuk, 1 Dan Murphy.
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Yann Thomas, 18 Shaun Knight, 19 Peter Buxton, 20 Akapusi Qera, 21 Dan Robson, 22 Tim Taylor, 23 Ian Clark

 

 

Wasps vs Newcastle

Wasps:

Season record: won 6, lost 15

Home record: won 4 , lost 6

Form: 2 wins in last 14 (both at home and in last 5 matches though)

Scoring: Average of 16.8 points a game (9.3 in 1st half / 7.5 in 2nd) and concede 23.4 (11.8 / 11.6 ).

At home its scored 18.2 (9.5 / 8.7 ) and concede 20.8  (11.5 / 9.3 )

Newcastle:

Season record: won 5 , drawn 2,  lost 14

Away record: won 1, lost 9

Form: Won 3, drawn 1, lost 3 of last 7 games.

Scoring: Average of 16 points (8.3/ 7.7 ) and concede 24.7  (12.6 / 12.1 )

Away its 16.8 (9.1 / 7.7) and concede 32.4 (14.2/ 18.2)

Head to head – Wasps have won 17, drawn 1, lost 11. At home they have won 11, drawn 1, lost 2.

Wasps have won 2/5 against bottom 4 teams and Falcons have won 2, drawn 1, lost 2.

Wasps score 41% of their 29 tries in the last 20 minutes of matches but just 7% from 41-60 minutes. They concede 63% of their 43 tries between 21-60 minutes. It can therefore be said the 41-60 minutes is the worst period of matches before the team.

Wasps score 41% of tries from wingers and concede 41% against centres, 19% against backrow, 16% against fullback.

Newcastle score 71% of their tries in the last 20 minutes of both halves. The Falcons only concede 16% of tries between 21-40 minutes but 60% of the 55 tries in the opening and closing 20 minutes of matches.

Newcastle score 25% from fullback and concede 40% from wingers.

Christian Wade has 8 tries in 14 games

Wasps have scored 41% of their points from tries and conceded 44% from tries scored against

Falcons have scored 36% of their points from tries and conceded 53% from tries scored against

Preview:

To guarantee safety, Wasps need 2 points from this relegation-decider at Adams Park. Falcons are 4 points behind so have it all to do and need to go out and score tries – something they have struggled with all year. They only average 17 points scored per away match, and whilst the win at Gloucester gave them a chance, this might be too much of an ask.

One of the home side’s weaknesses is a lack of ball carriers and they concede 40% of their tries from centres and backrow, so whilst the kicking game of Jimmy Goppereth is going to be important – the Falcons should look to be direct and break the line through the middle.

Wasps have the ‘luxury’ of being able to sit back and defend and punish any turnovers with the dangerous Christian Wade. Falcons have conceded 40% of their tries from wingers and the highly-rated youngster has crossed the line 8 times in 14 matches so simply kicking away ball to him is going to be a bad idea. Newcastle have the superior form going into the match with 3 wins and a draw from their last 7 games, compared to a Wasps team that have just 2 wins from their last 14 games. Crucially though, those Wasps victories came in their last 2 home games and Marco Wentzel is back – which strengthens their lineout and adds real leadership to the team. I can see Falcons maybe winning this by a few points but not by enough to keep them up.

Wasps are 1.57 and Falcons 2.75.

The handicap line is between 4 and 5 points.

A small play on Newcastle and maybe on the alt. handicap market may be the angle for this one.

Christian Wade anytime scorer – 3.0 ish

8 of 10 Wasps games have seen scorelines within 6 points so winning margin 1-10 for both sides could be a decent play.

Newcastle won 14-10 – covering the win line, handicap and winning margin and Wade also scored.

Wasps: 15 Richard Haughton, 14 Christian Wade, 13 Elliot Daly, 12 Dominic Waldouck, 11 Tom Varndell, 10 Nick Robinson, 9 Charlie Davies, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Sam Jones, 6 Joe Launchbury, 5 Marco Wentzel (c), 4 Richard Birkett, 3 Ben Broster, 2 Tom Lindsay, 1 Tim Payne.
Replacements: 16 Vladislav Korshunov, 17 Zac Taulafo, 18 Simon McIntyre, 19 Ross Filipo, 20 Tinus Du Plessis, 21 Nic Berry, 22 Will Robinson, 23 Chris Mayor.

Newcastle: 15 Greg Goosen, 14 Corne Uys, 13 Jamie Helleur, 12 James Fitzpatrick, 11 Ryan Shortland, 10 Jimmy Gopperth, 9 Peter Stringer, 8 Adam Balding, 7 Will Welch, 6 Ally Hogg, 5 Tim Swinson, 4 James Hudson, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Rob Vickers, 1 Jonny Golding.
Replacements: 16 Matt Thompson, 17 Grant Shiells, 18 James Hall, 19 James Goode, 20 Taiasina Tu’ifua, 21 Mark Wilson, 22 Chris Pilgrim, 23 Tom Catterick

Northampton vs Worcester

Northampton:

Season record: won 13, lost 8

Home record: won 8 lost 2

Form – won 11 of last 14

Scoring: Average of 24 points a game (13 in 1st half / 11  in 2nd) and concede 17  (9 / 8).

At home its scored 27 ( 17 / 10 ) and concede 15  ( 7 / 8 )

Worcester:

Season record: won 7,  drawn 1, lost 13

Away record: won 1, drawn 1, lost 8

Form: Lost 6 of the last 8 games.

Scoring: Average of 15 points (7 / 8 ) and concede 19  (9 / 10 )

Away its 12 (7 / 5) and concede 23 (11 / 12)

Head to head – Saints have won 6 and lost 5. At home, they won 2 and lost 3.

Saints have won 5/7 against bottom 4 teams and Worcester have lost 5/7 against top 4 teams.

Saints score evenly through the match except between 21-40 minutes which only accounts for 17% of their 46 tries.. They concede 59% of their 29 tries in the second half.

Worcester score 33% of their 21 tries in the last 20 minutes and concede 37% of 41 tries in the same period

Saints score 27% of tries from wing, 18% from centre, 16% from fullback, 16% from backrow.

Saints concede 31% of tries against wingers and 24% from backrowers.

Worcester score 65% from wingers and concede 36% against wingers, 21% from centres.

Chris Ashton has 5 tries in 9 games (5/5 in second half)

Ben Foden has 5 in 11 (4/5 in first half)

Tom May has 4 in 17

Phil Downson has 4 in 19 (3/4 first half and ¾ at home)

Miles Benjamin has 7 tries in 21 matches (5/7 in first half)

Marcel Garvey has 5 in 19 matches (5/5 in second half)

Saints have scored 46% of their points from tries and conceded 40% from tries scored against

Worcester have scored 34% of their points from tries and conceded 50% from tries scored against

6 cards shown in the last 3 Saints matches and 6 in the last 3 Worcester games.

 Preview:

Saints are sitting in 4^th position and will secure a play-off place with a win over a Worcester side that has little other than pride to play for. With just 2 wins in the last 8 games and 8 defeats from 10 away games, it’s tough to see the Warriors getting a positive result from Franklins Gardens. Add in Saints motivation to reach the post-season and to avenge a loss earlier in the season and it could be a long afternoon for the away team.

Worcester have scored no tries this season from fullback or backrow (a position Saints concede 24% of tries against) and rely heavily on wingers Benjamin and Garvey, who are both leaving the club after this match. Saints have stuck with Myler at fly-half, which was a move predicted a few weeks back, as Mallinder will no doubt prefer his steady influence in these knock-out games rather than the more risky Lamb. Saints have beaten teams by an average of 12 points at home and Worcester have lost away by an average of 13.

Saints are a lowly 1.03 with Worcs a giant 23 for the outright market.

The handicap line is between 21 and 23 points at 1.91.

Will be keeping an eye on the prices for Ashton, Foden and Pisi to score and a small look at Miles Benjamin too.

6/10 Worcs away games and 7/10 Saints games have seen first half as highest scoring so the 2.2 for that to occur is more than fair.

Saints won 42-14 with Ashton and Foden both scoring

The teams:

Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 George Pisi, 12 James Downey, 11 Paul Diggin, 10 Stephen Myler, 9 Lee Dickson (capt), 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Phil Dowson, 6 James Craig, 5 Christian Day, 4 Mark Sorenson, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Andy Long, 1 Soane Tonga’Uiha.
Replacements: 16 Ross McMillan, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Paul Doran Jones, 19 Ben Nutley, 20 Teimana Harrison, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Ryan Lamb, 23 Tom May.

Worcester: 15 Tom Arscott, 14 Miles Benjamin, 13 Alex Grove, 12 Ravai Fatiaki, 11 Josh Drauniniu, 10 Danny Gray, 9 Shaun Perry (c), 8 Kai Horstmann, 7 Matt Kvesic, 6 Neil Best, 5 Craig Gillies, 4 James Percival, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Chris Fortey, 1 George Porter.
Replacements: 16 Ed Shervington, 17 Ryan Furniss, 18 Ceri Jones, 19 Ben Gulliver, 20 Sam Betty, 21 Jonny Arr, 22 Joe Carlisle, 23 Charlie Hayter.

 

Sale vs Quins

Sale:

Season record: won 10, lost 11

Home record: won 7, lost 3

Form: won the last 2 matches and 3 of last 6.

Scoring: Average of 21 points a game (11 in 1st half / 10 in 2nd) and concede 24 ( 12 / 12 ).

At home its scored 22 ( 14 / 8 ) and concede 24 (10 / 14 )

Quins:

Season record: won 16, drawn 1, lost 4

Away record: won 7, drawn 1, lost 2

Form – won 3 of last 6,

Scoring: Average of 24 points ( 12 / 12) and concede 18  ( 10 / 8  )

Away its 19 ( 9 / 10) and concede 17  (10 / 7)

Head to head – Sale have won 19, drawn 1, lost 9 – and at home its won 12, drawn 1, lost 1.

Sale have lost 6/7 against the top 4. Quins have won 6/7 against middle 4 teams.

Sale score 31% of their 41 tries in the last 20 minutes and concede their 44 tries equally. The Sharks have scored 27% from fullback, 17% from wingers and 17% from backrow.

Sale concede 24% of tries against wingers, 19% from centres, 16% from halfbacks and 14% from fullback. (73% against backs)

Quins score their 51 tries consistently through the quarters of matches and concede their 32 tries equally too.

Harlequins have scored 22% from wingers, 18% from fullback, 16% from backrow, 14% from centre, 12% from front row.

Quins have conceded 38% against wingers, 25% against fullbacks and 19% from backrow.

Scorers:

Rob Miller has 10 tries in 20 games (8/10 away)

Tom Brady has 4 tries in 19 (3/4 in first half)

Dwayne Peel has 4 tries in 18 (3/4 at home)

Mike Brown has 6 tries in 19

Ugo Monye has 5 in 15 (4/5 at home)

Luke Wallace has 4 in 15 (3/4 at home)

Sale have scored 47% of their points from tries and conceded 43% from tries scored against

Quins have scored 51% of their points from tries and conceded 42% from tries scored against

10 cards shown in the last 5 Quins games, and 3 in the last 2 Sales matches.

Preview:

Having led for the majority of the season, Quins will be keen to ensure they don’t slip from the summit at the end. There is of course the kudos of finishing first but more significantly, since the league went to a play-off format, it has only been won by a 1^st or 2^nd placed side. The match earlier in the season saw 89 points scored with 3 late Sale tries adding some drama and Rob Miller scoring twice and carrying for 175m. Both sides enjoy keeping the ball alive in the tackle area with 200 plus offloads each for the season and given that Sale’s home matches against the rest of the top 5 have seen an average of 51 points a game, am expecting another high scoring contest. Sale will be looking to leave Edgeley Park on a high note and their opponents have a terrible record in this fixture, winning just once in 14  league games. However a look at the Sale team shows an introduction of youth, as well as the prospect of Easter vs Easter at number 8! With Quins needing the win far more, will go for an away victory.

Quins are priced at just 1.2 for this one with Sale at 9′s which looks a big price, even bearing in mind their team changes. However Sale did collapse on the last day of last season, beaten by over 50 points.

The handicap line is between 14-16 points at 1.91.

Sale’s home games against the rest of the top 5 have seen an average of 51 points so will have a look at the Over total points and tries.

Rob Miller to score anytime or last at price.

Quins won 24-10

Sale Sharks: 15 Rob Miller, 14 Tom Brady, 13 Will Addison, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Mark Cueto, 10 Tommy Bell, 9 Scott Mathie, 8 Mark Easter, 7 David Seymour (capt), 6 Will Bordill, 5 Tom Holmes, 4 Kearnan Myall, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Marc Jones, 1 Lee Imiolek.
Replacements: 16 Tommy Taylor, 17 Ross Harrison, 18 Joe Ward, 19 Billy Emerson, 20 Jordan Davies, 21 Will Cliff, 22 Iain Thornley, 23 Charlie Amesbury.

Harlequins: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Tom Williams, 13 George Lowe, 12 Jordan Turner-Hall, 11 Sam Smith, 10 Nick Evans, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Chris Robshaw (capt), 6 Maurie Fa’asavalu, 5 George Robson, 4 Olly Kohn, 3 James Johnston, 2 Joe Gray, 1 Joe Marler.
Replacements: 16 Rob Buchanan, 17 Mark Lambert, 18 Will Collier, 19 Tomas Vallejos, 20 Tom Guest, 21 Karl Dickson, 22 Rory Clegg, 23 Matt Hopper.

Saracens vs Exeter

Saracens:

Season record: won 15, drawn 1,lost 5 (4 Losing Bonus Points)

Home record: won 6, drawn 1, lost 3

Form: Won 4 of last 7

Scoring: Average of 21 points a game (11 in 1st half / 10 in 2nd) and concede 16 ( 10 / 6 ).

At home its scored 19 ( 10 / 9 ) and concede 14 (8 / 6 )

Exeter:

Season record: won 12, lost 9 (8 losing bonus points)

Away record: won 6, lost 4

Form:

Scoring: Average of 20  points ( 10 / 10) and concede 18  ( 9 / 9 )

Away its 21 ( 10 / 11) and concede 23  (11.5 / 11.5)

Head to head – Saracens have won their 2 away games and lost their home game against Exeter.

Sarries have 6 wins and 1 draw against middle 4 teams. Exeter have lost 5/7 against top 4 teams.

Saracens have scored their 31 tries evenly, except between 21-40 minutes when they only score 13%. They have conceded their 27 tries evenly too except for 41 minutes to 60 when they only concede 11%.

Sarries have scored 33% of tries from wingers, 20% from centre, 17% from backrow.

Saracens have conceded 26% of tries against backrow, 22% from wingers.

Exeter score 39% of their 36 tries in the last 20 minutes. The Chiefs concede 61% of tries in the opening and closing 20 minutes of matches but just 14% in between 21-40 minutes.

Chiefs have scored 27% from wingers, 21% from centre and 21% from backrow.

Chiefs concede 79% of tries from backs- with wing 29% and centre 24%.

Scorers:

Ernst Joubert has scored 4 tries in 18 (4/4 away)

Richard Baxter has scored 6 tries in 19 (4/6 at home)

Saracens have scored 35% of their points from tries and conceded 41% from tries scored against

Exeter have scored 44% of their points from tries and conceded 45% from tries scored against

5 cards shown in the last 5 Exeter games and 6 in the last 3 Saracens matches.

Preview:

The Chiefs have already qualified for the Heineken Cup, an incredible achievement for the club in just their second season in the top flight. Recent losses -in the Amlin Cup away at Stade Francais and home to the Saints have meant that the chance for silverware has probably gone but boss Rob Baxter will surely take coach of the year honours. A win against at Saracens and Worcester upsetting Saints would see them take 4^th place but it’s a big ask. The round 5 match between these teams illustrated their respective strengths with Sarries utilising their usual kick-chase game, complimented with a high tackle count (Barritt with 19) and the Chiefs making plenty of carries through Johnson and Baxter.  Exeter have lost 5 out of 7 matches against the top 4 and despite putting up their customary brave tireless effort, Saracens should  repeat their previous result with a close win.

Saracens are 1.17 and Exeter are a big 6.

The handicap line is between 12-10 points at 1.91.

Richard Baxter anytime scorer and last scorer at price

17 of 21 Exeter games have seen scorelines within 7 points so winning margins of Saracens 1-10 at price

I like the unders in this one too – both total points and tries at price.

Saracens won 40-22 with points, tries, winning margins all missed.

Saracens: 15 Alex Goode, 14 David Strettle, 13 Chris Wyles, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 James Short, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Richard Wigglesworth, 8 Ernst Joubert, 7 Justin Melck, 6 Jackson Wray, 5 Mouritz Botha, 4 Steve Borthwick (c), 3 Carlos Nieto, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Rhys Gill.
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 John Smit, 18 Matt Stevens, 19 George Kruis, 20 Will Fraser, 21 Neil de Kock, 22 Charlie Hodgson, 23 Joe Maddock.

Exeter Chiefs: 15 Luke Arscott, 14 Phil Dollman, 13 Sireli Naqelevuki, 12 Bryan Rennie, 11 Matt Jess, 10 Gareth Steenson, 9 Kevin Barrett, 8 Richard Baxter, 7 James Scaysbrook, 6 Tom Johnson, 5 James Hanks, 4 Tom Hayes (capt), 3 Craig Mitchell, 2 Chris Whitehead, 1 Ben Moon.
Replacements: 16 Neil Clark, 17 Brett Sturgess, 18 Chris Budgen, 19 Aly Muldowney, 20 Ben White, 21 Haydn Thomas, 22 Ignacio Mieres, 23 Nic Sestaret.

Super 15 – Round 11

Canes vs Blues

Canes:

Season record: won 4, lost 5

Home record:  won 1, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 28.1 points a game (17.4. in 1st half / 10.66 in 2nd) and concede 30 (16.55 / 13.44 ).

At home its scored 27.75 (19.5 / 8.25 ) and concede 31.5  (20 / 11.5 )

Blues:

Season record: won 1, lost 8 (6 in a row)

Away record: won 1, lost 5

Scoring: Average of 20.7 points ( 11.2 / 9.5 ) and concede 26.6 (16.2 / 10.4 )

Away its 22 (10.4 / 11.6) and concede 28.6 (16.2 / 12.4)

Head to Head: Canes have won 4 of the last 7 and 2 of the last 3 at Wellington.

 

Scorers: Andre Taylor has 7 tries in 9 games (3.0 anytime scorer), TJ Perenara 4 in 8 (2.62 anytime), Cory Jane 3 in 9 (2.6 anytime), and Conrad Smith 3 in 8 (3.6 anytime)

Gareth Anscombe has 2 tries in 7, Chris Lowrey (9.0 anytime) and Benson Stanley (5.5) have 2 tries in 9.

Canes have scored 29 tries and conceded 25. Blues have scored 15 and conceded 26.

Blues score 33% of tries in first 20 minutes but concede 42% in that period too.

Canes score 41% of tries between 41-60 minutes. They concede 16% of tries in between 41-60 minutes and 28% in each quarter so that period is clearly the strongest for them in matches.

26.6% of Blues tries are from centres and the concede 35% from that position and 27% from wingers.

79% of Canes tries are from their backs – and they concede 25% from front row and 25% from centres.

7/9 Blues games have seen first half highest scoring and 5/9 Canes games (including 3 of their 4 home games)

Blues have scored 40% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 54% of the point scored against .

Canes have scored 57% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 46% of the point scored against

Preview:

Confession time – I backed the Blues to win last week. They rewarded such reckless optimism with a ‘classic’ performance. They coughed up possession in 6 of their lineouts and continued a season trend of numerous turnovers. Worse, they apparently ignored coaching instructions and instead attempted to play a running, offloading game in wet conditions – with a predictable outcome.

It appears Anscombe has paid the price for this, as he has been dropped from the match 22. Other familiar problems arose, such as not dealing with restarts, conceding early tries (42% of tries conceded in the opening 20 minutes this year), failure to commit enough bodies to the breakdown, slow service from rucks etc. Injuries to Nonu and Faumuina weakened the defence and scrum and the only positive seem to be a strong performance from Luke Braid.

The Canes have not beaten a team ranked higher than 9 in table – but bar the Cheetahs match have beaten the teams below them….and with 6 straight defeats the Auckland side are definitely below them. The Hurricanes had to make plenty of tackles against the Chiefs with 8 players making 10+ tackles but it’s unlikely this week’s opposition will retain ball as well. Andre Taylor continues to impress with line-breaks and has already scored 7 tries. The Canes beat Blues in round 5, with a last minute converted Conrad Smith try and should complete the double.

The Canes are 1.6 to win this and the handicap line is set at -4 at 1.91, both of which should come in.

The Blues are 3′s if you want to throw some money away.

Andre Taylor to score anytime may be the option at 3’s or Canes winning margin by 1-5 at 6′s or 1-12 at 2.75.

Score: Canes 35 – Blues 19  – with Andre Taylor scoring.

Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (c), 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu’u, 17 Reg Goodes, 18 Jack Lam, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Charlie Ngatai, 22 Alapati Leiua.

Blues: 15 Hadleigh Parkes, 14 Rene Ranger, 13 Benson Stanley, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 George Moala, 10 Michael Hobbs, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid (c), 6 Chris Lowrey, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Filo Paulo, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Tevita Mailau.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Angus Ta’avao, 18 Liaki Moli, 19 Daniel Braid, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Lachie Munro, 22 David Raikuna.

 

 

Rebels vs Bulls

Rebels:

Season record: won 2, lost 6

Home record: won 2, lost 2

Scoring: Average of 19.25 points a game (10.25 in 1st half / 9 in 2nd) and concede 30.12  ( 15.5 /14.6  ).

At home its scored 27.25 (12.75/ 14.5 ) and concede 30 (15.75 / 14.25 )

Bulls:

Season record: won 6 , lost 2

Away record: won 2 lost 1

Scoring: Average of 33.75 points (12.875 / 20.875) and concede 21.3 ( 10.6 / 10.75 )

Away its 33.3 (17 / 16.3) and concede 19 (12 / 7)

 

Head to Head: Rebels lost 47-10 away to Bulls in only meeting.

 

Scorers: Lachlan Mitchell has 2 tries in 8 games.

Bjorn Basson has 6 tries in 8 games, Zane Kirchner 4 in 8, Wynard Oliver and CJ Stander 3 in 7.

Rebels have scored 12 tries and conceded 29. Bulls have scored 28 and conceded 16.

Rebels scored 75% of tries in either first or last 20 minutes of matches and concede 62% in between 21-60 minutes.

Bulls only scored 10.7% of tries in first 20 minutes but 35.7% in last 20 minutes. They concede 75% of tries in first and last 20 minutes of matches – which is the time Rebels are most likely to score.

28.8% of Bulls tries are from wingers and 21% from backrow. 25% of tries they concede are scored by halfbacks.

Rebels have conceded 24% of tries from backrow and 21% from wingers

5/8 Rebels games have seen first half highest scoring and 5/8 of Bulls games it’s the second half.

Bulls have outscored opponents in 7/8 second halves and seen the opponents reach 10 points first in 5/8 games and in the last 4.

Rebels have scored 39% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 60% of the point scored against .

Bulls have scored 52% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 47% of the point scored against

Preview:

The Bulls have scored 16 more tries than the Rebels and conceded 13 less. The positions they score 50% of their tries from (wing and backrow) are the same ones that the Melbourne side have conceded 45% of scores against. The Bulls also won 47-10 in their only previous meeting. It all suggests that Luke Jones, Gareth Delve and co will have plenty of tackling practice.

James O’Connor has a lacerated kidney and the Danny Cipriani experiment has ended with a whimper, thrusting Kurtley Beale into the 10 shirt. Given his recent cameo, this might benefit the side. There is a glimmer of hope for the Rebels, in that the Bulls are notorious slow starters and have seen their opponents reach 10 points before them in their last 4 matches. There has also been the occasional poor goal-kicking display from Morne Steyn and its worth remembering that the Bulls lost in round 9 last year away to the Force as part of an unsuccessful away tour and have been beaten by the Blues this year.

False hopes aside, the Bulls make a habit of outscoring their opposition heavily in the second half and will surely look to start their tour with a bonus point win.

The Bulls are 1.2 favourites for this, with the Rebels at 6’s.

The handicap is line at  Bulls -11 at 1.91 but -5 at 1.44 looks a real steal.

If the Bulls follow their season trends then a small play on Rebels to score first try at 3’s and to reach 10 points first at 3.5 are worth a look.

As is Bulls 2^nd half handicap of -6 at 1.9.

Score: Bulls 41 – Rebels 35

 

Melbourne Rebels:15 Julian Huxley, 14 Mark Gerrard, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Lachlan Mitchell, 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve, 7 Tim Davidson, 6 Luke Jones, 5 Hugh Pyle, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Rod Blake, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Jono Owen, 18 Al Campbell, 19 Ryan Hodson, 20 Richard Kingi, 21 James Hilgendorf, 22 Stirling Mortlock.

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (c), 7 Jacques Potgieter, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Flip van der Merwe, 4 Juandre Kruger, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouche, 22 Johann Sadie.

Chiefs vs Lions

Chiefs:

Season record: won 8 (7 in a row) , lost 1

Home record: won 4 , lost 1

Scoring: Average of 26.7 points a game (13.5 in 1st half / 13.2 in 2nd) and concede 18  (7.33/ 10.66 ).

At home its scored 28 (15.8 / 12.2 ) and concede 17.2  (8.4 / 8.8 )

Lions:

Season record: won 1 , lost 7 (7 in a row)

Away record:  lost 2

Scoring: Average of 18.75 points ( 7.75 / 11 ) and concede 28.25 (17.25 / 11 )

Away its 12.5 (3 / 9.5) and concede 29  (20 / 9)

Head to Head: Chiefs have won 4 of the last 5.

Scorers: Sona ‘Arizona’ Taumalolo 6 tries in 9 matches, Lelia Masaga 4 tries in 6, Tim Nanai Williams 2 in 8, Liam Messam 2 in 9.

Tian Meyer 2 tries in 6 matches, Jacob Johannes Taute 2 tries in 8.

Chiefs have scored 24 tries and conceded 9. Lions have scored 12 tries and conceded 25.

Chiefs have scored 37.5% of tries in last 20 minutes and conceded 77.7% of tries in the 2^nd half.

Lions have scored 41.6% of tries in last 20 minutes and conceded 44% from 21-40 minutes.

Chiefs have 33% of tries scored from front rowers and 29% from wingers.

Lions have scored 25% from front row and 25% from backrow – and are only team not to have scored a try from a winger. They have conceded 36% of tries from wingers.

Lions have seen first half highest scoring in 5/8 games, but for the Chiefs 5/8 of games see the second half with most points.

Chiefs have been winning at halftime in 8/9 matches and were drawing the other.

Lions have trailed by at least 6 and an average of 9.5 points in 7/8 matches at halftime.

Chiefs have scored 50% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 28% of the point scored against .

Lions have scored 40% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 55% of the point scored against

Preview:

The Chiefs were given a boost when Wayne Smith decided this week to remain at the current Super 15 table toppers. Arguably the best balanced side in the competition, the recent performance of Brodie Retallick epitomised the Chiefs strength with 8 carries, 11 tackles and 5 lineout wins.

He, along with Messam (injury) and try scoring prop Taumalolo are taking a deserved break from the starting XV but having conceded the joint lowest amount of tries with 9, and on a run of 8 victories – the New Zealand side will be confident of containing a Lions side that have scored just 12 tries and are the only team that haven’t scored a try from a winger yet.

They have also lost their last 7 matches and missed 25 tackles against the Brumbies last week.  If that wasn’t enough, the Lions have been losing by at least 6 points in 7 of their 8 matches at the break, whilst the Chiefs have led at halftime in 8 of their 9 matches and were drawing the other.

It’s very likely this one will be over after 40 minutes, but with Leonard looking rusty and a few changes they might not run up the huge score the bookies are predicting.

The Chiefs are a lowly 1.06 to win this, with the Lions at 17’s.

The handicap line is set at -17 for 1.91 which is a big number of points to be giving away, even considering how poor the Lions were last week.

The halftime handicap of Chiefs  -8 at 1.91 looks preferable to the fulltime handicap.

Chiefs ht / ft appears a ‘lock’ but is only priced at 1.17

Chiefs: 15 Andrew Horrell, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Tanerau Latimer, 5 Michael Fitzgerald, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Arizona Taumalolo, 18 Alex Bradley, 19 Scott Waldrom, 20 Tawera Kerr- Barlow, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Maritino Nemani.

Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Deon Van Rensburg, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Lionel Mapoe, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Joshua Strauss (c), 7 Grant Hattingh, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Franco Van der Merwe, 3 Patric Cilliers, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 Caylib Oosthuizen/JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 CJ Van der Linde, 18 Cobus Grobbelaar, 19 Jaco Kriel, 20 Tian Meyer, 21 James Kamana, 22 Michael Killian.

 

Brumbies v Waratahs

Brumbies:

Season record: won 5 , lost 4

Home record: won 4 , lost 1

Scoring: Average of 26.8 points a game (13.7 in 1st half / 13.1 in 2nd) and concede 22.8 (11.8 / 11 ).

At home its scored 27.8 (17 / 10.8 ) and concede 20.2 (11.8 / 8.4 )

Tahs:

Season record: won 4 , lost 5

Away record: won 2, lost 2

Scoring: Average of 25.1 points (12.7 / 12.3 ) and concede 24.3 (10.3 / 14 )

Away its 22 ( 12.75 / 9.25)  and concede 21.25  (7.75 / 13.75)

Head to Head – Brumbies have won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5.

Scorers:

Joseph Tomane 4 tries in 8 games,Henry Speight 4 tries in 9, Jesse Mogg 3 tries in 9.

Tom Kingston 4 tries in 9 games, Tom Carter 3 tries in 9 games, Bernard Foley 3 tries in 8,Wyclif Palu 2 tries in 7.

Brumbies have scored 27 tries and conceded 17. Tahs have scored 22 and conceded 21.

Brumbies score and concede their tries consistently through each quarter of a match. 37% of tries are scored by their wingers and 23.5% of tries conceded are against backrowers.

Tahs score 63.6% of their tries between 21-60 minutes and just 13.6% in last 20 minutes. They concede 62% of tries in the 2^nd half.

22% of Tahs tries scored from wingers and 35% of tries conceded are from that position.

5/8 Brumbies and 6/9 Tahs games have second half as highest scoring.

Tahs have scored first try in 7/9 games and first points in 7/9.

Brumbies have scored 55% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 41% of the point scored against .

Tahs have scored 49% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 48% of the point scored against

Preview:

The Brumbies are 5 points clear at the top of the Australian conference and with 5 of their remaining 7 matches being against teams from their own country, there is an excellent chance for Jake White’s side to reach the semi-finals. Two matches against the Waratahs and one against the Reds stand out as the key clashes. Were it not for a lowly 25% kicking success rate, the win against the Lions would have been more emphatic and the back 3 of Mogg,Tomane and Speight are dangerous strike runners. The White / Lealifano halfback combo is blossoming and expect plenty of attention on Michael Hooper who will be swapping sides at the end of the season.

The Tahs have beaten Rebels, Force and Sharks but no team ranked higher than 9^th yet. 4 of their 5 defeats have been by 4 points or less and after a better than expected performance against the Crusaders – they really need to come away with points in this match to stay in the conference race. Adam Ashley-Cooper, Wycliff Palu and other senior players are starting to exert more influence, but the issue of conceding too many points in the second half remains (62% of tries scored against them after the break). The New South Wales team also concede 35% of their tries against wingers, which is bad news when up against the Brumbies.

Bookies are finding it hard to split this one and Brumbies at 1.9 may be the way to go.

On the handicap, the Tahs are +2 at 1.91, which is preferable than just backing them outright at 2.2 if you fancy the away side.

As always with a closely anticipated match, a draw to occur at either ht or ft at 8.5 could come into play.

Second half highest scoring at 1.83 and Tahs to score first at 1.91 and first try at 1.91 would fit in with season trends too.

Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Nic White, 8 Fotu Auelua, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Ben Mowen (c), 5 Sam Carter, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Dan Palmer, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
Replacements: 16 Anthony Hegarty, 17 Ruaidhri Murphy, 18 Peter Kimlin, 19 Ita Vaea, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Robbie Coleman, 22 Tevita Kuridrani.

Waratahs: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Atieli Pakalani, 13 Tom Kingston, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Peter Betham, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Brendan McKibbin, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Jono Jenkins, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson (c).
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Lopeti Timani, 20 Rocky Elsom, 21 Sarel Pretorius, 22 Daniel Halangahu.

 

 

Sharks vs Highlanders

Sharks:

Season record: won 4 , lost 5

Home record: won 2, lost 1

Scoring: Average of 22.4 points a game (9.8 in 1st half / 12.2 in 2nd) and concede 24.2  (11.7 / 12.4 ).

At home its scored 23.6 (10 / 13.6 ) and concede 20  (11 / 9 )

Highlanders:

Season record: won 7 , lost 2

Away record: won 3, lost 1

Scoring: Average of 25.3  points (11.7 / 13.5) and concede 22.5 (14.7 /7.7 )

Away its 26 (11 / 15 ) and concede 25.5 (18.25 / 7.5)

Head to Head – Sharks have won the last 4 against the Highlanders

Scorers:

Riaan Viljoen 4 tries in 9 games, Lwazi Mvovo 3 tries in 9,

Aaron Smith 3 tries in 9 games, Adam Thompson 3 in 8, Shaun Treeby 2 in 5, Ben Smith 2 in 7.

Sharks have scored 21 tries and conceded 21, Highlanders have scored 22 and conceded 15.

Sharks score 33% of their tries in between 41-60 minutes and concede 33% of tries in the same period.

25% of Sharks tries scored by fullback and 25% from backrow. They concede 20% against halfbacks, centres and fullbacks.

Highlanders score 64% of tries in 2^nd half and concede 47% in the first 20 minutes.

32% of Highlanders tries scored by halfbacks and 40% conceded against wingers.

5/9 Sharks games have seen second half as highest scoring (but it has alternated from second half to first half each round). In 6/9 Highlanders game, its first half highest scoring.

Highlanders have trailed at halftime in every away game and conceded 1^st try in 6/9 games.. Sharks have scored 1^st try in 5/9 games.

Sharks have scored 52% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 48% of the point scored against .

Highlanders have scored 48% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 36% of the point scored against

Preview:

The Highlanders came back from 30-9 down after 49 minutes against the Cheetahs to record a famous 33-36 victory. They rode their luck…with James Haskell staying on the field and Goosen leaving it early both major factors. The fact remains though, that 6 of their 7 wins have been by 5 points or less and they are masters at winning the close games.

A look at the competition stats reveals three Highlanders (Hosea Gear, Tamati Ellison and Ben Smith) in the top 5 list of metres run.  Their opponents have seen 4 of their 5 losses be within 6 points or less. Having 6 players in the top 20 of missed tackles list and  Bismarck du Plessis conceding 13 penalties and 21 turnovers cannot have helped.

The back row clash promises much, with both sides featuring players that enjoy a gallop (Manu,Thompson and Daniel all carried for over 500m so far).

The Highlanders have conceded the first try in 6 of their 9 games and have trailed at halftime in every match so far whereas the Sharks have scored first in 5 of their 9 games. It wouldn’t surprise if the Sharks were to take the lead in this encounter, only for the Highlanders to snatch it late on.

The Sharks are 1.5 for this with the Highlanders at 3′s my pick.

The handicap of Highlanders +6 at 1.91 appeals, as do small plays on:

Highlanders to win by 1-5 points at 7.5

Sharks halftime / Highlanders fulltime at 9

 

Sharks: 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Tim Whitehead, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (c), 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis/Wiehahn Herbst, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Jannie du Plessis/Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Ryan Kankowski, 21 Frederic Michalak, 22 Meyer Bosman.

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Siale Piutau, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 Doug Tietjens, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Jarrad Hoeata, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Chris King, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (capt).
Replacements: 16 Jason Rutledge, 17 Maafu Fia/Jacob Ellison, 18 Culum Retallick, 19 Elliot Dixon, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Chris Noakes, 22 Kurt Baker.

 

 

Cheetahs vs Force

Cheetahs:

Season record: won 3, lost 6

Home record: won 2 , lost 2

Scoring: Average of 28.8 points a game (17.1 in 1st half / 11.7  in 2nd) and concede 30.4  (13.88 / 16.55 ).

At home its scored 27.75 (16.75 / 11) and concede 32.75 (12.5 /20.25 )

Force:

Season record: won 2, lost 7

Away record: won 1, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 20.4 points (9.55 / 10.8) and concede 25.4  (13.4 / 12 )

Away its 21.75 ( 10.75 / 11) and concede 26  (17.5 / 8.5 )

Head to Head – Force have beaten the Cheetahs in 3 of their 4 meetings.

Scorers:

Coenie Oosthuizen 3 tries in 7 games, Robert Ebersohn 3 in 9, Willie le Roux 3 in 8.

James Stannard 3 tries in 6 games, Samu Wara 2 tries in 6,

Cheetahs have scored 22 tries and conceded 26. Force have scored 17 and conceded 24.

Cheetahs score their tries consistently and concede 35% in the last 20 minutes.

27% of Cheetahs tries are from front row and 23% from halfbacks. They have conceded 23% against those same positions.

Force have scored 41% of tries in between 41-60 minutes and only concede 13% in the last 20 minutes.

29% of Force tries are from halfback and 24% from wingers. They concede 79% of tries against backs with wingers making up 29%.

Cheetahs have first half as highest scoring half in 5/9 games and have been outscored in second half in all 4 of their home games.

Cheetahs scored first points in 6/9 games.

All 4 Force away games have seen the first half highest scoring

Cheetahs have scored 42% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 47% of the point scored against .

Force have scored 46% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 52% of the point scored against

Preview:

The loss to injury of Johan Goosen is going to be a tough one for the Cheetahs to take. He has scored 145 of their 260 points but also ran for 537m, offloading 13 times and also kicked 74 times for 2813m.  Poor Sias Ebersohn’s miss at goal last week emphasises Goosen’s importance to the team.

In a season of frontrow tries, Coenrad Oosthuizen now has 3 and with 14 carries and 7 tackles last week put in a great shift. Willie Le Roux continues to break the line and set up tries but attention in this match will most likely focus on the back row. Henrich Brussow (130 tackles so far) vs David Pocock (134 tackles) was a clash that only lasted for 19 minutes in the World Cup QF before the Cheetah left the field so this is a great opportunity to see 2 scavengers at work.

The Force locks and back row each made at least 21 tackles last week, an incredible amount! Sharpe, Hodgson and Pocock have also carried heavily for the side throughout the year and after last week’s monumental effort, a tour to South Africa has come at the wrong time for the side.

The Will Genia saga and a question mark over talisman Pocock’s future add to the off-field issues in the currently coach-less Force camp. Cheetahs have scored first in 6 of their 9 games but been outscored in the second half in all their home games. The Force score the majority of their tries after halftime and have beaten the Cheetahs in 3 of the last 4 encounters so there are positives, especially as the South African side have a habit of losing close games (5 of their 6 losses by 7 points or less).

There isn’t much attractive about the 1.36 for the Cheetahs to win and instead backers will be heading towards the -6 at 1.91.

The Force are 3.5 for the outright win and +8 at 1.91 in some places if you want to go for the underdog.

First half to be highest scoring at 2.2

Cheetahs ht / Force ft – 11’s

2^nd half handicap – Force +3 at evens.

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Cameron Jacobs, 13 Robert Ebersohn, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Tewis de Bruyn, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Justin Downey, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Izak van der Westhuizen, 4 George Earle, 3 WP Nel, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.

Replacements: 16 Hercu Liebenberg, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Andries Ferreira, 19 Ashley Johnson, 20 Piet van Zyl, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Philip Snyman.

Western Force: 15 Alfie Mafi, 14 Samu Wara, 13 Nick Cummins, 12 Winston Stanley, 11 Napolioni Nalaga, 10 David Harvey, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Matt Hodgson, 7 David Pocock (c), 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Elvis Taione, 17 Salesi Manu, 18 Phoenix Battye, 19 Lachlan McCaffrey, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Ben Seymour, 22 Rory Sidey.

 

Crusaders vs Reds

Crusaders:

Season record: won 6, lost 3

Home record: won 2 , lost 1

Scoring: Average of 29.2 points a game (14.5 in 1st half / 14.6  in 2nd) and concede 22.88  (11.77 / 11.11 ).

At home its scored 26 (12 / 14) and concede 23 (10.6 /12.3 )

Reds:

Season record: won 5, lost 4

Away record: won 2, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 19.5 points (10.5 / 9) and concede 25.2  (9.55 / 15.66 )

Away its 19.4.( 10.4 / 9) and concede 33  (12.25 / 26.25 )

Head to Head – Crusaders have lost their last 3 games against the Reds, having won the 3 games before that.

Scorers:

Robbie Fruean 6 tries in 9 games, Israel Dagg 4 tries in 9,  Zac Guildford 3 tries in 8,

Dom Shipperley 5 tries in 9 games, Scott Higginbotham 3 in 8.

Crusaders have scored 22 tries and conceded 19 tries , Reds have scored 17 tries and conceded 24 tries

Crusaders have scored 27% of tries in the first 3 quarters of matches so quite consistent. They also concede tries on a consistent basis.

Crusaders scored 32% of tries from centres and 32% from wingers.(20 of their 22 tries from backs).

They concede 21% of tries each, against wingers, centres, front row and back row.

Reds have scored 64.7% of tries in between 21-60 minutes of matches. They have only conceded 8% of tries in first 20 minutes. In 2^nd half they let in 66% of their tries.

Reds have scored 31% of tries from wingers and 25% from backrow. They concede 30% against backrow and 21% against halfbacks and wingers respectively.

6/9 Crusaders games have seen first half as highest scoring and 5/9 for Reds matches

Crusaders have scored 43% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 46% of the point scored against .

Reds have scored 48% of their total points from tries and conceded tries make up 53% of the point scored against

Preview:

There was plenty of attention on Richie McCaw’s return last week and he duly obliged… by conceding a soft penalty in front of the posts, followed by a rueful chuckle. In his absence, Matt Todd has shone, making 152 tackles so far!

Kieran Read has future All Black skipper written all over him and continues to put in world class performances at 8 each week but last week was all about Robbie Fruean. Sporting a mohawk that Toulon would approve of, the uncapped (how long for?) centre carried for 134m, scoring twice and with an assist.

It wasn’t all rosy for the Crusaders though, as a high penalty count and errors kept the Tahs in the game, with a 73^rd minute scrum malfunction ruining many a gamblers handicap bet on them.

The Reds beat the Blues last week and the Genia u-turn should act as a boost for team morale, but in a season disrupted by injury, it’s tough to say how well the Queensland team will perform for the rest of the season. They hold 3 consecutive wins over the ‘Saders, but that run should end with perhaps the margin being lower than what the bookies are predicting.

The home side have been set as firm favourites at 1.2 to win this. The Reds are as big as 6.5 which is surely greater than it should be and the handicap line of +13 at 1.91 may also tempt if the Reds continue their run of early tries.

This is one match where the alt handicap market may be the angle to take, so will check back when the markets are all up as something like Crusaders -7 may provide a decent price.

First half highest scoring at 2.2

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Sean Maitland/Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Dan Carter, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Tom Taylor, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Luke Romano, 4 Tom Donnelly, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Samuel Whitelock, 19 Richie McCaw, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Ryan Crotty, 22 Tom Marshall.

Reds: 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Anthony Faingaa, 12 Mike Harris, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Ben Lucas, 9 Will Genia, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Jake Schatz, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 James Hanson, 1 Greg Holmes.
Replacements: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 Albert Anae, 18 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 19 Radike Samo, 20 Eddie Quirk, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Rod Davie

Super 15 – Round 10

Blues vs Reds

Blues:

Season record: won 1 , lost 7 (5 in a row)

Home record:  lost 3

Scoring: Average of 22 points a game (11.6 in 1st half / 10.3 in 2nd) and concede 27.1 (16.3 / 10.7 ).

At home its scored 22 (13.6 / 8.3 ) and concede 24.6  (16.6 / 8 )

Reds:

Season record: won 4, lost 4

Away record: won 1, lost 3

Scoring: Average of 19.1 points ( 10 / 9.1 ) and concede 27 (9.75 / 17.25 )

Away its 18.5 (9.25 / 9.25) and concede 38.5 (12.25 / 26.25)

Head to head – Blues have won 3 and lost 3 recently. Won 1 and  lost 1 at home.

Preview:

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results…” clearly a quote about backing the Blues this season. Yet there is reason to look into their chances again. Somebody found the ‘on’ switch for Ma’a Nonu last week and Gareth Anscombe’s accurate goal kicking is a positive, as is a powerful scrum anchored by Charlie Faumuina. If and it’s a big IF they can find a way to cut out the errors that have plagued them then there is a big chance to beat a Reds side that have lost their last 3 away matches and seem to be cursed at fly half. The All Blacks have favoured Weepu against Genia and the Blues have followed suit, whilst Kiwi Mike Harris gets the chance to punish the Aucklanders for overlooking him. Alongside him, the return of Digby Ioane is huge boost, and the match-up against Rene Ranger in the midfield promises to be electric.

The Blues are priced at 1.53 and the Reds 3.5 – with the odds for the away side more tempting.

Not sure it’s a wise idea to trust the Blues with a -4 handicap but it might be that Reds +6 at 1.91 is the best way to approach the match. In all honesty, it isn’t a game that appeals so perhaps safer to leave alone.

For try scorers, Hadleigh Parkes at 4.5 and Scott Higginbotham at 4.33 both stand out.

Score – Blues 11 Reds 23

Blues: 15 Hadleigh Parkes, 14 George Moala, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid (c), 6 Daniel Braid, 5 Filo Paulo, 4 Ali Williams, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Tevita Mailau.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Pauliasi Manu/Angus Ta’avao, 18 Liaki Moli, 19 Chris Lowrey, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Michael Hobbs, 22 Benson Stanley (one to be omitted).

Reds: 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Digby Ioane, 12 Mike Harris, 11 Rod Davies, 10 Ben Lucas, 9 Will Genia, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Beau Robinson, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 James Hanson, 1 Ben Daley.
Replacements: 16 Albert Anae, 17 Greg Holmes, 18 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 19 Jake Schatz, 20 Ed Quirk, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Anthony Faingaa.

Lions vs Brumbies

Lions:

Season record: won 1, lost 6 (6 in a row)

Home record: won 1, lost 4

Scoring: Average of 18.5 points a game (8 in 1st half / 10.5 in 2nd) and concede 27.4  ( 17.2 /10.1  ).

At home its scored 21 (10/ 11 ) and concede 26.8 (16.2 / 10.6 )

Brumbies:

Season record: won 4 , lost 4

Away record: lost 3

Scoring: Average of 26 points (13.3 / 12.6) and concede 23.25 ( 12.6 / 10.6 )

Away its 23 (7.3 / 15.6) and concede 28.3 (14 / 14.3)

Head to head – Lions won 2 and lost 3. At home its won 1 and lost 1.

Scorers:

Lions conceded 9 of 19 tries between 21-40 mins

Preview:

The Brumbies have lost all 3 away matches this season but after outscoring the Bulls 5 tries to 2 last week, will be confident of beating a Lions side that has lost 6 games in a row and only managed to score 10 tries. There will also be a sense of injustice about certain refereeing decisions in that Bulls defeat.  With a creaking lineout and inexperienced combinations, the Lions may lack the ability to build an adequate attack and the Brumbies are capable of scoring from deep with players like Jesse Mogg or dominating the breakdown through Michael Hooper. Providing they avoid conceding too many penalties within Elton Jantjes range, the ACT side should run out victors in Johannesburg.

Will be taking the Brumbies at 1.73, and with -2 at 1.91

5 of 7 Lions games have seen the first half as the highest scoring so a look at that to occur again at 2.2 is worthwhile.

.The home side have trailed by at least 6 points in all bar 1 of their games so far at halftime, so Brumbies -1 at 1.91 at ht seems value.

Jesse Mogg at 2.88 is probably a bit short but Michael Hooper at 5.5 seems better priced.  For the Lions Tian Meyer at 5.0 appears the best option.

Lions 20 – Brumbies 34 – (brumbies, handicap, ht handicap all covered)

Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Deon van Rensburg, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Lionel Mapoe, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Tian Meyer, 8 Joshua Strauss (c), 7 Derick Minnie, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Hendrik Roodt, 3 Patric Cilliers, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 Caylib Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 Jacobie Adriaanse, 18 Grant Hattingh, 19 Doppies le Roux, 20 Ross Cronje, 21 Butch James, 22 Michael Killian.

Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Nic White, 8 Fotu Auelua, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Peter Kimlin, 5 Leon Power, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Ruaidhri Murphy.
Replacements: 16 Anthony Hegarty, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Sam Carter, 19 Ita Vaea, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Robbie Coleman, 22 Tevita Kuridrani.

Chiefs vs Hurricanes

Chiefs:

Season record: won 7 (6 in a row) , lost 1

Home record: won 1 , lost 2

Scoring: Average of 26 points a game (13.75 in 1st half / 12.25 in 2nd) and concede 18.5 (7.25/ 11.25 ).

At home its scored 26.75 (16.75 / 10 ) and concede 18  (8.5 / 9.5 )

Hurricanes:

Season record: won 4 , lost 4

Away record: won 3 , lost 1

Scoring: Average of 29.8 points ( 18.6 / 11.2 ) and concede 29.6 (17.1 / 12.5 )

Away its 32 (17.75 / 14.25) and concede 27.75  (14.25 / 13.5)

Head to head – Chiefs have won 2, drawn 1, lost 4. At home its won 2, drawn 1, lost 1

Scorers:

5/8 Hurricane games see the 1^st half as highest scoring and 4/8 Chiefs games.

Preview:

The Chiefs can attribute their great start to the season to a defence that has only conceded 8 tries and 148 points so far.  They prevented the Sharks from scoring at home last week, a feat they also accomplished in 2010. The lineout operated at 100% and Cruden has plenty of ball-carrying options like Liam Messam or strike runners such as Lelia Masaga to choose from. Arguably the best balanced team in the competition, they have only lost once –by 4 points to the Highlanders in round one. The Canes have scored an impressive 28 tries but possess the third worst defence and have not beaten a team ranked higher than 9^th yet . They were also taken apart by both the Crusaders and Cheetahs up front . The Chiefs showed against both the Brumbies and the Cheetahs that they can beat a high-scoring team and should do the same again here.

The Chiefs have not yet trailed at half-time so them to win ht / ft at 1.8 may appeal more than the outright 1.36.

The Canes are at full strength and will surely look to bounce back after that hiding from the Crusaders. The Chiefs are resting a couple and so the +7 handicap for the away side at 1.91 will be heavily backed. I prefer the winning margin of 1-12 at 2.7 for the home side though.

Chiefs won 33-14 and covered the ht / ft bet.

Chiefs: 15 Andrew Horrell, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Tim Nanai Williams, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Alex Bradley, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliott, 1 Arizona Taumalolo.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Asaeli Tikoirotuma.

Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (c), 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu’u, 17 Reg Goodes, 18 Mark Reddish, 19 Jack Lam, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Charlie Ngatai, 22 Alapati Leiua.

 

Force v Stormers

Force:

Season record: won 2 , lost 6

Home record: won 1 , lost 3

Scoring: Average of 22.6 points a game (10.3 in 1st half / 12.25 in 2nd) and concede 26.5 (14.25 / 12.25 ).

At home its scored 23.5 (10 / 13.5 ) and concede 27 (11 / 16 )

Stormers:

Season record: won 7 , lost 1

Away record: won 3, lost 1

Scoring: Average of 24.25 points (15.3 / 8.8 ) and concede 17.6 (7.8 / 9.75 )

Away its 23 ( 15.75 / 7.25)  and concede 17.25  (8.75 / 8.5)

Head to head – Force have won 1 and lost 3. Lost 1 at home.

Force scored 11/17 tries in 2^nd half and only conceded 3 of 22 in last 20 minutes.

6/8 Stormers games have the 1^st half as highest scoring and 4/8 Force matches.

Preview:

The Force are without a coach, after terminating the contract of Richard Graham who had activated a 6 month get-out clause in his contract to join the Reds next season. Backrow star David Pocock is also being linked with a move away so there will be a sense of unease on the west coast. They have been outscored in the first half in 7 of their 8 matches which doesn’t bode well when playing a Stormers side that score over 60% of their points in the 1^st half.  The Force have a habit of scoring their tries in the second half (65%) and have only conceded 3 tries in the last 20 minutes of matches but against the Stormers, that may be too late. The South African conference leaders’ crushing defence has contained six of their opponents to 19 points or less and they are capable of counterattacking from turnovers, as the Reds discovered last week. Despite mounting injuries the away side should score early in this game and then hold out for the win.

The Stormers are priced at 1.44 and the Force 3.6

The handicap of Stormers -5 at 1.91 seems a bit low and should be considered and there are plenty of options to make the most of the Stormers quick starts in games.

A first team to score, winning at ht / ft treble is 2.25, whilst the ht handicap of -3 is 1.91. The race to 10 points at 1.57 is a bit short but still more than the Stormers to win outright. The Stormers to be winning at halftime is 1.57 and them to score 1^st try is 1.53.

Stormers won 17-3 and covered the handicap, ht handicap, race to 10, winning at ht and 1st try markets.

Western Force: 14 Alfie Mafi, 14 Rory Sidey, 13 Nick Cummins, 12 Winston Stanley, 11 Napolioni Nalaga, 10 David Harvey, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 David Pocock (c), 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Elvis Taione, 17 Salesi Manu, 18 Phoenix Battye, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Ben Seymour, 22 Samu Wara.

Stormers: 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Bryan Habana, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Danie Poolman, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker (c), 4 De Kock Steenkamp, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 Brok Harris, 18 Don Armand, 19 Deon Fourie, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 JP du Plessis.

Cheetahs vs Highlanders

Cheetahs:

Season record: won 3 , lost 5

Home record: won 1, lost 2

Scoring: Average of 28.3 points a game (16.3 in 1st half / 12 in 2nd) and concede 29.75  (14.5 / 15.25 ).

At home its scored 26 (14.6 / 11.3 ) and concede 31.6  (13.6 / 18 )

Highlanders:

Season record: won 6 , lost 2

Away record: won 2, lost 1

Scoring: Average of 24  points (12.1 / 11.8) and concede 21.25 (13.75 /7.5 )

Away its 22.6 (11.6 / 11 ) and concede 23 (16.6 / 6.3)

Head to head – Cheetahs have lost last 5 to Highlanders

Scorers:

5/8 of Cheetahs games and 6/8 of Highlanders games have seen the first half as highest scoring.

Preview:

Mike Delaney made a welcome return to Super Rugby for the Highlanders last week, slotting 7 of his 9 kicks at goals and providing a sumptuous  no-look  inside ball for the always dangerous Hosea Gear to set up a try.  With 5 of their 6 victories coming by a winning margin of 5 or less, the side from Dunedin are masters of closing out tight games, something the Cheetahs have struggled with. The Bloemfontein outfit have picked up 4 losing bonus points from 5 defeats this season and collected 7 from 11 losses last year.  It’s arguably the toughest game to call this weekend and the bookies are struggling to split them but the New Zealand team have won the last 5 meetings between the two sides and as they say – winning is a habit.

Highlanders are best priced at 2.1 or +1 at evens and Cheetahs are 1.91.

Highlanders winning margin 1-5 at 6.0, 1-10 at 3.4 and 1-12 at 3.25

First Half to be highest scoring at 2.2

Highlanders won 36-33 and so covered those winning margins.

Waratahs vs Crusaders

Tahs:

Season record: won 4, lost 4

Home record: won 2 , lost 2

Scoring: Average of 24.1 points a game (12.75 in 1st half / 11.3  in 2nd) and concede 22.75  (9.8 / 12.8 ).

At home its scored 26.25 (12.75 / 13.5) and concede 24.25 (12 /12.25 )

Crusaders:

Season record: won 5, lost 3

Away record: lost 3, lost 2

Scoring: Average of 28.25 points (14.6 / 13.6) and concede 21.6  (11.6 / 10 )

Away its 29.6 ( 16.2 / 13.4) and concede 20.8  (12.2 / 8.6 )

Head to head – Tahs have lost last 5 to Crusaders

Scorers:

Crusaders have seen the 1^st half as highest scoring in 6 of 8 games .

Tahs have seen 2^nd half highest scoring in 5 of 8 games.

Preview:

The Crusaders put in an all-round performance last week, first by dominating in the set-piece and gaining a 32-0 lead and then by resisting a Hurricanes fightback. The pack all made well over 12 tackles with Matt Todd managing a staggering 23, an improvement of his 20 the week before. Richie McCaw is close to full fitness, and the Crusaders seem to shifting up the gears  – ready for a charge at the title. In contrast, the Tahs are struggling. They may be 2^nd in their conference but they have had a favourable start to the campaign playing the Force and Rebels twice and have consistently let teams back into games in the second half (only outscoring an opponent once in this period).  Their backline will be disjointed with Rob Horne suspended for a dump tackle on Kurtley Beale and fullback Foley injured. The Crusaders have 5 wins in a row over the New South Wales side and the trend looks likely to continue.

The Crusaders are 1.4 favourites and you can get a generous 4.33 from Sportingbet for a Tahs home win.

The -6 handicap for the Saders at 1.91 looks good considering their recent performances

Final score – Crusaders 37 – Tahs 33