Montpellier v Bath
Montpellier won away at Clermont at the end of August, showing the ability to close out a tight match that eluded them last season. Having improved at the breakdown and lineout, it might be a surprise then that they have just parted company with forwards coach Ledesma.
The hosts are currently one of the lowest try-scoring teams of the Top 14 and the loss of Trinh-Duc for a significant part of the season has blunted their attacking threat. A woeful performance and home loss against Brive at the start of November prompted an audit by President Altrad and then Ledesma’s departure.
It is of course easier to sack a forwards coach rather than the head coach and there had been suggestions in the French media about him clashing with players. However, with Galthié regularly linked with the France job and looking very disinterested during that Brive defeat – the problems may be deeper rooted. The fact that fellow coach Glas handed in his resignation in support of Ledesma and was happy to walk away with nothing is telling – as is Altrad refusing to allow him to go until the end of the season.
There is something slightly self-destructive about this Montpellier side. Signing high-profile southern hemisphere recruits and then having problems integrating them into the side; reaching a Top 14 semi-final and then losing in extra-time – through a combination of not knowing the rules and losing attacking scrums and lineouts on the opposition tryline; having a high number of tries disallowed for not grounding the ball etc, fixing the defence and then seeing the attack splutter..
They’ve lost the previous 3 matches in the league – against La Rochelle, Brive and Lyon. It is also worth noting that both of the promoted sides received 3 yellow cards. That they are struggling to score points against bottom of the table sides, even when they are down to 14 players (and 13 last weekend) highlights what state MHR are currently in.
Montpellier have only won 2 of the previous 8 pool matches and they were both against Treviso. Their last 5 home games in the competition have been low scoring with a 23-3 win against Toulon, 24-6 against Treviso and 8-25,14-15 and 13-15 losses against Ulster, Leicester and Glasgow respectively.
After losing in the opening 2 rounds there was a decision to be made by the hosts about how to treat this match. Use it to ‘restart’ the season or concentrate on the Top 14 and write off the European campaign completely.
Based on league starts this season and allowing for injuries, Montpellier’s 1st choice pack has been: Nariashvili, Ivaldi, Mas, Timani, Donnelly, Bias, Ouedraogo, Mowen. As with the other big French sides, there is plenty of depth but the pack starting this match have only started a combined 23 league matches this season. The backline is missing Trinh-Duc, Ebersohn, Nagusa and while Ben Lucas was signing as a medical joker, he isn’t in this squad. That means Selponi continues at fly-half and there are two scrum-halves on the bench.
Allowing for a 3 year absence, Bath don’t have a particularly good recent away record in this competition with losses in 10/11 trips and the victory coming at Aironi.
They’ve won 8/15 league away matches since the start of last season by an average score of 21-24, with the majority of those wins coming against mid-table sides and below. Bath have been outscored after the break only twice in those 15 away games and have gone 11 Prem matches at all venues without losing the 2nd half.
Looking at their 9 league matches this season, they’ve only ‘lost’ 2/18 halves – 17-10 at Saints 1st half and 12-0 at Wasps 1st half.
The extra England match this Autumn series means the visitors have to manage the returns of Wilson, Webber, Attwood, Ford and Watson. Quins and Saints both had issues with that after the Six Nations earlier in the year – with O’Shea criticised for resting his Internationals and Mallinder for playing them. There is also the challenge of looking after players that may be disappointed after being dropped during the Autumn series, such as Eastmond and Rokoduguni. It does seem wise to maintain the front row that did so well last week in the league, so seeing Webber, James, Wilson etc on the bench isn’t a huge surprise.
Quins conceded 22 penalties against Bath last week and a large number of those occurred during scrums. Bath are unlikely to have similar dominance against the French side in that area, but will head into the game with that pack full of confidence. In the pool matches against Glasgow and Toulouse they fielded back-rows of Day, Mercer, Sisi and Day, Sisi, Ewels due to the unavailability of Louw, Fearns, Garvey, Fa’osiliva and Houston. It is a better balanced starting combination this time – with Fa’osiliva to be introduced later.
Rene Ranger spoke this week about the mental challenge for Montpellier and that the French players often dropped their heads when things weren’t going well whereas the SH recruits tried to be positive. Last season they were slow to adapt to Pro 12 referees in European games but quick to get frustrated.
There has been a reaction to their announced team with an early -7 handicap now down to -3 in places. Given their current problems, missing players, lack of confidence and inability to score tries they aren’t really a team that can be trusted, even with home advantage so Bath +4 it is.
Under 35.5 total points would have landed in Montpellier’s previous 5 home games in Europe.
Referee Davies was in charge of Montpellier’s 24-6 won over Treviso and pinged the hosts 12 times. Davies gave 3 cards that match and 7 in his 5 Pro12 games this season.
Joseph has 7 tries in 11 games for Bath this season and is 6.0 anytime scorer. He may make way for Burgess later on which is worth considering if backing him.
Montpellier: 15 Benjamin Fall, 14 Yohann Artru, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Lucas Dupont, 10 Enzo Selponi, 9 Benoit Paillaugue, 8 Alex Tulou 7 Kelian Galletier, 6 Antoine Battut, 5 Thibaut Privat (c), 4 Robins Tchale Watchou, 3 Pat Cilliers, 2 Thomas Bianchin, 1 Yvan Watremez,
Replacements: 16 Charles Geli, 17 Na’ama Leleimalefaga, 18 David Attoub, 19 Tom Donnelly, 20 Fulgence Ouedraogo, 21 Teddy Iribaren, 22 Jonathan Pelissie, 23 Benoit Sicart
Bath: 15 Anthony Watson, 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Kyle Eastmond, 11 Matt Banahan, 10 George Ford, 9 Chris Cook, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 Carl Fearns, 6 David Sisi, 5 Dominic Day, 4 Stuart Hooper (c), 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Ross Batty, 1 Nick Auterac.
Replacements: 16 Rob Webber, 17 Paul James, 18 David Wilson, 19 Dave Attwood, 20 Alafoti Fa’osiliva, 21 Peter Stringer, 22 Ollie Devoto, 23 Sam Burgess.
Treviso v Northampton
Treviso have lost 8 European games in a row by an average score of 7-34. At home it is 15/19 defeats by an average score of 16-31 since 2008-9.
The usual tactic with their European home matches is to oppose them after the break, as they average a -3 point deficit 1st half but -13 points in 2nd half. The hosts have led at halftime against Biarritz, Saracens, Toulouse and Leicester twice in recent seasons but then faded. In the Pro12 this season, Treviso have 8 losses and a draw and have been outscored 2nd half in 9/9 games.
McLean tended to be Treviso’s main strike weapon last season. He has since moved to Sale, but his replacement Hayward has carried on the trend – carrying for 125m against the Cardiff Blues, 94m against Leinster, 78m at Glasgow and 95m at Connacht in recent Pro 12 matches.
Saints warmed up with a game against London Welsh last weekend, winning 43-14 and more impressively beat Saracens away 31-24 the round before. Racing Metro picked up 4 competition points in their round 2 win at Treviso, so if Northampton could gain 5 in this match, it would go some way in balancing their ‘lost’ point in Colombes.
Treviso have lost the 2nd half by at least 11 points in 7 of their previous 8 European matches, and Saints -10 on the 2nd half handicap is worth considering. It both allows for the hosts to show some fight in the 1st half and also backs that strong Northampton bench to cause problems later on.
Referee Fitzgibbon has given 8 cards (inc 2 reds) in 4 Pro12 matches this season and 11 in 8 last year. Treviso’s league matches have produced an average of 1.3 cards this season and 29 have been shown in their previous 14 matches in Europe. It is 4.5 for 2 or more Treviso cards.
Treviso: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Simone Ragusi, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Sam Christie, 11 Ludovico Nitoglia, 10 Joe Carlisle, 9 Alberto Lucchese, 8 Dean Budd, 7 Alessandro Zanni, 6 Simone Favaro, 5 Antonio Pavanello (cpt), 4 Francesco Minto, 3 Salesi Manu, 2 Davide Giazzon, 1 Matteo Muccignat.
Replacements: 16 Amar Kudin, 17 Matteo Zanusso, 18 Romulo Acosta, 19 Marco Fuser, 20 Tomas Vallejos, 21 Marco Barbini, 22 Luca Morisi, 23 Edoardo Gori.
Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Ken Pisi, 13 Tom Stephenson, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Jamie Elliott, 10 Stephen Myler, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Samu Manoa, 7 Phil Dowson (cpt), 6 Calum Clark, 5 Christian Day, 4 Sam Dickinson, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Mike Haywood. 1 Alex Waller.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Hartley, 17 Ethan Waller, 18 Gareth Denman, 19 Courtney Lawes, 20 Tom Wood, 21 Kahn Fotuali’i, 22 George Pisi, 23 James Wilson.
Sale v Saracens
Saracens have won 1 of their previous 5 league matches, their worst run since the end of the 2009-10 season. They conceded an average of 16 points a match last year, but it is 22 so far this campaign with at least 21 points in 7/9 games. For context, Saracens conceded over 20 points in just 4/24 league matches (including the semi-final and final) last year.
The visitors have a good league record against Sale, with 7 straight victories and wins in 11/12 meetings over a longer run.
The Sharks did outscore Saracens 2nd half in round 4 this season in the Prem, but that was the first time they had managed that in 11 attempts. Saracens had averaged an advantage of +11 points 2nd half in the fixture before that game.
Sale have been outscored 2nd half in their previous 7 games in this competition and by an average of 18 points. That is inflated by a heavy loss at Toulon, but it would be an average of 14 points even if that match was ignored.
After the away win at Harlequins a few weeks ago, Steve Diamond mentioned that the team had worked hard on ‘off the ball’ areas such as getting off the line to make tackles, fitness and making themselves a tough unit to play against. The defence has certainly improved since Mike Forshaw arrived in May 2013 and in Braid, Seymour and Lund they have players with the ability to really disrupt opposition ball. They are without two of those flankers for this match though.
The hosts have become accomplished at taking the lead 1st half and then shutting opponents out. Given they have scored only 2 of their 27 league tries between 41-60 minutes and Saracens 2/22 in that period, it may well be that the 2nd half starts slowly here.
The win at Newcastle last weekend was their first league victory after trailing at halftime, since the middle of the 2012-13 season (39 games). Going back to the start of last season, they’ve won 9/11 league home matches when ahead at halftime. The last side to overturn a deficit in the Prem and win there was Saracens. In Europe, Munster came back from 16 points at halftime to win 27-26 in round 1.
Sale have highlighted several times that their focus is on the league this season and having won 3 matches in a row they’ve moved up to 6th (and 1 point behind Saracens in 4th). Given they didn’t place any expectations on getting to the quarter-final stage of this competition, it should follow that they are under less pressure to win this match than their opponents. That fact that the Saracens scrum has creaked in recent weeks won’t have gone unnoticed and Diamond may fancy putting one over the club that let him go in 2005.
Had planned to back Saracens on the 2nd half handicap for this match – based on Sale’s scoring stats for the season and what has happened in previous meetings. The -3 available would have covered on Saracens previous 5 trips to Sale.
Sale: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Luke McLean, 13 Mark Jennings, 12 Sam Tuitupou, 11 Mark Cueto, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Josh Beaumont, 7 Magnus Lund (c), 6 Mark Easter, 5 Andrei Ostrikov, 4 Jonathan Mills, 3 Vadim Cobilas, 2 Marc Jones, 1 Eifion Lewis-Roberts
Replacements: 16 Shalva Mamukashvili, 17 Ross Harrison, 18 James Flynn, 19 Viliami Fihaki, 20 Andrew Highes, 21 Will Cliff, 22 Nick Macleod, 23 Will Addison
Saracens: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Duncan Taylor, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 David Strettle, 10 Charlie Hodgson, 9 Richard Wigglesworth, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Jacques Burger, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Alistair Hargreaves (c), 4 George Kruis, 3 Petrus du Plessis, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola
Replacements: 16 Brett Sharman, 17 Richard Barrington, 18 James Johnston, 19 Jim Hamilton, 20 Jackson Wray, 21 Neil de Kock, 22 Marcelo Bosch, 23 Chris Wyles
Ospreys v Racing Metro
Wales have regularly played a fourth Autumn International (outside the IRB / World Rugby window) and that will have had an impact on the regions chances of European success. Preparation time for round 3 is reduced and there are the issues of integrating players back into the team and managing any injuries picked up during those four Tests.
In previous years the Test players would also have returned for this fixture after another disappointing loss against Southern Hemisphere opposition. Not so this time though and the contrast in form is maybe most evident in the case of Dan Biggar. Four years ago, his performance was heavily criticised after Wales drew 16-16 with Fiji, by coach Rob Howley. This weekend the fly-half goes into European competition with the same coach praising his maturity, defence, work ethic and ability to navigate the team around the park after a win over South Africa.
Ospreys had only lost twice in 24 home pool matches between 2005-6 and 2012-13, but last season they were beaten by Leinster (10 points) and Northampton (12 points) on their own turf. Clermont won 11-29 there in round 4 of the 2003-4 season, but after that defeat it has been 10 wins and a draw against French opponents by an average score of 22-14. Their last home defeat in the Pro 12 was against Munster in February when they were missing the likes of Tipuric, AW Jones, Biggar etc.
Racing Metro have scored an average of 22.1 points a match in the Top 14 this season. That doesn’t look particularly high but it was 19.6 in 2012-13 and 17.3 last season. There is a sense that they have tried to attack more this year and from the first match at Montpellier there was evidence of more aggression up front.
The visitors have won away at Montpellier and Castres this season and bar the trip to Clermont (when the scored just 6 points) have been competitive on their trips. If there is a weakness, it is a habit of conceding early points and leaving too much work to be done in the 2nd half. They trailed by 10+ points at halftime at Clermont, Grenoble, Stade Francais and in 4 of their previous 5 away matches in European competition.
Sexton is being rested for this match which means Goosen starts at 10. The visitors are also missing Thomas, Roberts and Dulin. Dumoulin had been favoured over Roberts for much of the season anyway and while Chavancy is also out, Laulala is an excellent replacement for this match. The choice of Phillips over Machenaud is understandable given the opposition.
During Ospreys winning run of 7 games in the Pro 12 at the start of this campaign, it was noted that the average finishing position of their opponents the season before was 8th. Since then, they have lost by 9 points away at Ulster, 6 at Leinster and 28 at Northampton in Europe. The hosts are probably performing better than was expected before the season started, however not sure that means they should be as short as 1.55 against this opposition. Would prefer to back Racing Metro +5.
Referee JP Doyle has handed out 11 cards in 5 Prem matches this season. It is 2.88 for 2 or more cards.
Ospreys: 15 Dan Evans, 14 Tom Grabham, 13 Ashley Beck, 12 Josh Matavesi, 11 Eli Walker, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Tyler Ardron, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 James King, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Lloyd Peers, 3 Dmitri Arhip, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Marc Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Sam Parry, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Daniel Suter, 19 Rynier Bernardo, 20 Sam Lewis, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Hanno Dirksen.
Racing Métro: 15 Benjamin Lapeyre, 14 Adrien Planté, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Alexandre Dumoulin, 11 Marc Andreu; 10 Johannes Goosen, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Antonie Claassen, 7 Bernard Le Roux, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Francois van der Merwe, 4 Juandre Kruger, 3 Luc Ducalcon, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski (c), 1 Eddy Ben Arous.
Replacements: 16 Virgile Lacombe, 17 Julien Brugnaut, 18 Walter Desmaison, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Camille Gerondeau, 21 Maxime Machenaud, 22 Yoan Audrin, 23 Benjamin Dambielle
Munster v Clermont
For Munster home pool games in European competition there are a couple of trends that can act as useful starting points. Firstly they usually win – as shown by a record of 53/55 victories at an average score of 29-12.
Secondly, they don’t concede many points 2nd half – with a combined total of just 17 points scored against them after the break in the previous 8 home group stage games. Going back to the start of 2012-13, they have only allowed an average of 5 points 2nd half at all venues, with under 10 points in 15/18 matches. Since 2009-10 (19 games), only Northampton have outscored them 2nd half in a European home match.
Munster have won the two previous home matches against this opponent – 36-13 in 2007-8 and 23-13 in 2008-9, with the latter match seeing O’Connell sin-binned and Cudmore sent off for fighting within the opening 20 minutes.
Before the 2012-13 semi-final meeting, Clermont and the French media expressed their unhappiness that O’Connell wasn’t going to be cited for a kick to the head of Dave Kearney during Munster’s match with Leinster. It was deemed that the lock’s shin made contact with the opposition player’s head but his foot with the ball and thus it was an accident. Midi Olympique then produced a ‘dossier on O’Connell and aired a few conspiracy theories. Coincidentally, Munster have just had a lock banned for kicking in a Pro 12 match before this game, but it is O’Callaghan instead.
With Vern Cotter leaving, that hammering against Saracens at the end of last season and home losses against Castres and Montpellier, it did look like Clermont may struggle this campaign. However they are currently in 2nd place in the Top 14 and having picked up 6 match points from the previous 2 European matches are in a decent enough position in this pool.
Clermont have scored 18 of their 29 league tries from their forwards this season, which is a shift away from the days of Nalaga and Sivivatu dominating the tryscoring. They conceded 3 tries at Toulon last weekend, but still have allowed the lowest in the Top 14 -with 15 in 12 games.
The visitors started their league campaign with 3 away wins at Brive, Toulouse and Oyonnax but then lost the next 3 at UBB, Bayonne and Toulon. They’ve lost 6/7 trips to Irish sides in this competition, by an average score of 23-16.
Munster would have covered the -2 2nd half handicap in 13 of the previous 15 home games in Europe
Wayne Barnes has given 8 cards in 4 Prem matches so far this season which is in line with his average. It is 2.88 for 2 or more cards.
Munster: 15 Felix Jones, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Pat Howard, 12 Denis Hurley, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Ian Keatley, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Tommy O’Donnell, 6 Peter O’Mahony (c), 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Dave Foley, 3 BJ Botha, 2 Duncan Casey, 1 Dave Kilcoyne
Replacements: 16 Kevin O’Byrne, 17 James Cronin, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Billy Holland, 20 Sean Dougall, 21 Duncan Williams, 22 JJ Hanrahan, 23 Johne Murphy
Clermont: 15 Nick Abendanon, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Napolioni Nalaga, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Ludovic Radosavljevic, 8 Fritz Lee, 7 Julien Bonnaire, 6 Damien Chouly (c), 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Jamie Cudmore, 3 Clément Ric, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Thomas Domingo
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Davit Zirakashvili, 19 Julien Pierre, 20 Alexandre Lapandry, 21 Thierry Lacrampe, 22 Brock James, 23 Jonathan Davies
Ulster v Scarlets
The hosts are looking to avoid a 4th straight loss in Europe – the last time that occurred was in 2007-8. Having lost Court, Afoa, Muller, Ferris, Wallace, director of rugby Humphreys and coach Anscombe they will have been seeking to prove this won’t be a dreaded ‘transitional season’.
The departure of senior players and coaching changes are both usually reasons to oppose a side, as are injuries to key players. Pienaar, Jackson, Trimble, Tuohy, Henderson, Henry, L Marshall etc have all either missed matches (beyond International windows) or are currently out. Former Pro 12 Player of the Year / Irish Rugby Union Players Association’s Player of the Year winner – Nick Williams hasn’t yet had the same impact this year while Payne’s move to the centres has limited those cutting runs from deep.
Going back to the start of the 2010-11 season they’ve won 18/19 home games in the league against Welsh opposition by an average score of 27-14. It is 6 home wins in a row against the Scarlets by an average score of 32-18.
As with Munster and other teams with a strong home record in European competition, Ulster aren’t often outscored 2nd half on their own ground. It has only happened twice in the previous 18 matches and they average an advantage of +9 points after the break since 2009-10.
This isn’t the first time that the visitors have been all but written off in an European Cup match – but away wins at Castres, Quins, Racing Metro and home against Leicester in the previous round do point to a side capable of springing an upset. There are a few reasons to oppose them here though – Lee and Ball have just come through a battle with the SA pack while the visitors are missing Barclay, Owens and Gareth Davies. Confidence player Priestland will also have to handle slipping down the depth chart with Wales.
Scarlets have scored over 12.5 points on their previous 7 trips to Ulster and in 9 of their last 10 European away games (exception was 11 at Clermont) so that is worth considering, but potential poor weather will need to be factored in.
Ulster have scored 12/24 tries in final 20 minutes of league games this season while the Scarlets have been outscored 2nd half away by 14 points (Leinster), 7 (Edinburgh), 9 (Munster) and 11 (Connacht). There is a 2nd half handicap of -5 available for Ulster.
There have been 7 cards shown in the previous 4 meetings between the teams, with a red and 2 yellows in September. Referee Pearce gave a red and 2 yellow cards within the opening 30 minutes of an Ulster home match in May this year.
Ulster: 15 Louis Ludik, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Stuart Olding, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Ian Humphreys, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Roger Wilson, 6 Robbie Diack, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Dan Tuohy, 3 Wiehahn Herbst, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Callum Black.
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Andy Warwick, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Alan O’Connor, 20 Clive Ross, 21 Paul Marshall, 22 Stuart McCloskey, 23 Michael Allen.
Scarlets: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Harry Robinson, 13 Regan King, 12 Scott Williams (c), 11 Michael Tagicakibau, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Aled Davies, 8 Rory Pitman 7 James Davies, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Johan Snyman, 4 Jake Ball, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Emyr Phillips, 1 Rob Evans.
Replacements: 16 Kirby Myhill, 17 Phil John, 18 Rhodri Jones, 19 George Earle, 20 Lewis Rawlins, 21Rhodri Williams, 22 Steven Shingler, 23 Gareth Owen
'Orrible Punt 