Castres v Wasps
Castres sit bottom of the Top 14, 1 point below recently promoted side La Rochelle. It has been announced that former player (1990-9) and forwards coach (2002-5), Christophe Urios will take over from Matthias Rolland next season. Given that disruption and fact they’ve already lost at home this season, it may seem like a decent time to be visiting them.
Having appeared in consecutive Top 14 finals, the decline of Castres might appear to be sudden. However their coaches and key players moving to Racing Metro has meant the 2013 title winning side has been broken up. New signing Sivivatu picked up an injury and missed the start of the season while the cancelled move to Toulon meant Castres ended up paying the equivalent of a transfer fee just to retain their own player, Kockott.
Recent Castres European games have been low scoring, with the previous 12 seeing an average of 28 total points scored. The hosts scored 41 points against Northampton mid-way through the 2011-12 campaign but since then have averaged 12 points a match, with no higher than 22 points in 17 matches. That win over Saints was also the last time they scored more than 9 points in a 2nd half in European competition. Since that match, Castres have averaged 5 points scored after the break ,(7 points at home) and been outscored 2nd half in 14 of those 17 matches.
Wasps won away at the bottom 4 Prem sides last season but a record of 23 defeats in the previous 29 league away games doesn’t look great. It is worth noting though that 16 of those 23 losses were by margins of 1-7 points.
Ignoring the big win over London Welsh, Wasps have scored an average of 14 points 2nd half this season in the league and at least 7 per game. However in this competition, the visitors did ‘lose’ the 2nd half 0-14 at Leinster and 6-10 home against Quins.
Allowing for the point that the Challenge Cup is a different competition, Wasps have won away at Grenoble, Bayonne and Bordeaux in recent seasons as well as the play-off matches against Stade Francais. They face a Castres side that are missing Forestier, Wihongi, Fa’anunu, Mach, Capo Ortega, Gray, Samson, Bornman from the pack and Cabannes, Garvey, Tales and Palis from the backline.
Taking the opposition +3 on 2nd half hcap would have covered in 4/6 Castres home games in Top 14 this season and in 7/10 of their home games in Europe. It doesn’t seen that unreasonable to start with the idea that the hosts will put up resistance 1st half and then fade later on, given that has been the pattern for a number of seasons. Wasps +3 2nd half handicap.
European matches refereed by George Clancy have tended to be low scoring with an average of 37 points since 2012-13 and 10/13 going under 40 points. That along with the stats for Castres matches in this competition may give some appeal to the under 42.5 total points line.
Johnson is 7.5 anytime scorer and Leiua 6.5
Castres: 15 Julien Dumora, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Thomas Combezou, 12 Remi Lamerat, 11 Remi Grosso, 10 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 9 Rory Kockott, 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 Yannick Caballero (c), 6 Ibrahim Diarra, 5 Benjamin Desroche, 4 Piula Faasalele, 3 Yohan Montes, 2 Mathieu Bonello, 1 Saimone Taumoepeau
Replacements:16 Marc-Antoine Rallier, 17 Florian Houerie, 18 Ramiro Herrera, 19 Victor Moreaux, 20 Mathieu Babillot, 21 Romain Martial, 22 Max Evans, 23 Cedric Garcia
Wasps: 15 Rob Miller, 14 Sailosi Tagicakibau, 13 Ben Jacobs, 12 Alapati Leiua, 11 Tom Varndell, 10 Andy Goode, 9 Charlie Davies, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 James Haskell (c), 6 Ashley Johnson, 5 Kearnan Myall, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Edd Shervington, 1 Matt Mullan
Replacements: 16 Tom Lindsay, 17 Simon McIntyre, 18 Jake Cooper-Woolley, 19 James Gaskell, 20 Guy Thompson, 21 Tom Bliss, 22 Alex Lozowski, 23 Andrea Masi
Quins v Leinster
When Matt O’Connor was announced as Leinster coach (just 7 days after Joe Schmidt was named as Ireland boss), chief exec Mick Dawson stated that he had been on the radar for a long time.
It was also mentioned that the former Leicester coach had the backing of senior players, with Dawson telling RTÉ 2FM’s Game On:
“They don’t have a veto or the ultimate say in the matter, but we’d be very conscious of what they want. The senior players seem to suggest he is the right man for the job.”
When he was at Leicester, O’Connor was very critical of England’s style of play in early 2012 and while that may have been partly in response to Flood and Youngs being dropped, there were plenty of articles at the time highlighting O’Connor’s view on how the game should be played.
In an interview with the Guardian, he said “there’s a lot more strings to our bow than the physical and trying to batter the opposition”, while Flood praised the coach’s drive for detail and identifying tendencies and weaknesses of defenders.
Similar to his time at the Tigers, O’Connor hasn’t fully been accepted by the Leinster fans yet with style of play (plenty of long kicks) and a perceived rating of Gopperth over Madigan heading up the complaints.
Taking over from a successful coach, not being able to bring backroom staff with him, losing senior players from that side, an expectation to play an attractive brand of rugby, injuries, possible restrictions from the IRFU etc can all be seen as factors that might make life tough for a new coach at Leinster. However, O’Connor isn’t the new coach anymore. He has made it clear that criticism of style doesn’t concern him and in fairness, other coaches (including his predecessor) are often praised for adapting and grinding out results. Winning ugly may not be a problem at the moment, but given the history and culture of the side, losing ugly is unlikely to be tolerated.
Since winning at the Stoop in the 2008-9 season, Leinster have 17 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses on the road in this competition and 4 wins / 1 draw at English teams. They face a Quins side that had a tough evening at the scrum against Bath and are scoring an average of just 14 points a match (ignoring the big win over London Welsh).
Quins Director of Rugby Conor O’Shea, who scored Leinster’s 1st Heineken Cup try back in November 1995, has consistently stated that performance is key and then the results will look after themselves. That fact that Marler was missing and Lambert was ill before the Bath game will mitigate the concerns about the scrum – as will the fact it went very well against Wasps in rd 2 of this competition and was top of the Prem for success rate before last week.
The commitment to play English qualified players and in a high tempo, offloading style means Harlequins are often praised when they win and hammered by critics when they lose. They have a close squad, use their academy well and avoid the problems that teams like Montpellier have with settling new players every season. The pay-off is a lack of experience in certain positions and perhaps a habit of struggling in wet conditions or in ‘kicking duels’ against the tougher defences. It is quite a contrast with the O’Connor situation at Leinster as often there is the complaint that the 2012 Prem champs don’t win ugly enough.
O’Shea has backed the dropped Care and while he did rest his England players after the Six Nations, on this occasion has brought them back into the starting line-up. Quins have won 16/35 top level European competition games and 10/18 since the 2008-9 season. The majority of their ‘big’ European wins have tended to come away – Toulouse, Stade Francais, Munster while they’ve lost home matches against Toulouse, Leinster, Munster, Clermont.
Had planned to back Leinster for this match, but 1.73 isn’t hugely appealing so instead will go for the 1-12 winning margin at 2.5
Care is 5.5 anytime scorer while Murphy is 7.0
Harlequins: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Marland Yarde, 13 Matt Hopper, 12 George Lowe, 11 Aseli Tikoirotuma, 10 Nick Evans, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nick Easter 7 Chris Robshaw, 6 Luke Wallace, 5 George Robson, 4 Charlie Matthews, 3 Will Collier, 2 Dave Ward, 1 Joe Marler (c).
Replacements: 16 Joe Gray, 17 Mark Lambert, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Sam Twomey, 20 Jack Clifford, 21 Karl Dickson, 22 Tim Swiel, 23 Tom Casson
Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Darragh Fanning, 13 Gordon D’Arcy, 12 Ian Madigan, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Jimmy Gopperth, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c) 7 Jordi Murphy, 6 Rhys Ruddock, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Sean Cronin, 1 Jack McGrath.
Replacements: 16 Bryan Byrne, 17 Michael Bent, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Kane Douglas, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Isaac Boss, 22 Noel Reid, 23 Zane Kirchner
Toulouse v Glasgow
Toulouse lost 5 matches in a row in the Top14 between August and September, they then won 6 in a row in all competitions, before slipping at home against Grenoble. Guy Noves dismissed suggestions of a crisis during that poor run and pointed to key players being injured and the majority of matches being away. Those were reasonable points but it also isn’t a stretch to suggest that in recent seasons, their Top 14 rivals have caught up and in some cases surpassed them.
Having only lost the 1 home league game between 2009-10 and 2013-14, it is noticeable that Montpellier, Racing Metro, Clermont, Grenoble have all won there since February. There doesn’t seem to be much of a middle ground with this current Toulouse side – when they are good it is the strutting, offloading style of old. When they have an off-day, the lineout and scrum splutters and they resemble a poor man’s version of Toulon away, but without Toulon’s accurate goal kicking, set-piece or discipline.
He may have been signed as cover for others during Internationals, but Harinordoquy has assumed a significant role in the team. Noves has assembled a monster pack but the former Biarritz back-rower adds a bit of class and the ability to link up with the backline.
The hosts are without Flood this weekend and McAlister, which means a halfback combo of Bezy and Doussain starts. The latter missed a few shots at goal in the Grenoble loss last weekend but was very accurate in the win over Saracens in Europe last season. The absence of a regular fly-half may see the hosts using the same tactics as that Saracens win and looking to squeeze out Glasgow at the breakdown.
There are occasions when previous stats and performances are very useful for assessing how a side may get on in a particular match. However in Glasgow’s case, knowing they have only won 6/47 away games in Europe isn’t that helpful. This current side can’t really be compared to the one that lost 26 Heineken Cup trips in a row and instead now look a squad capable of upsetting some of the established teams.
The announcement that key players Strauss and Nakarawa had signed new contracts this week will have acted as a boost and that is a tactic used by other teams successfully before a big match. Having been through a few painful knockout losses at Leinster in the Pro 12 (2012-14) and learnt lessons, this group should be better equipped to win at teams like Toulouse. The majority of the squad are also involved together with the Scotland team and in contrast to their opponents there isn’t the same massive drop off in performance quality when Glasgow do opt to rotate players.
Am happy enough with Glasgow +8 here. Bar a big win over what we now know to be a poor Castres side in August, Toulouse haven’t been that impressive at home and if Doussain struggles there aren’t many options at fly-half.
Toulouse: 15 Clément Poitrenaud, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 Yann David, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Maxime Médard, 10 Jean-Marc Doussain, 9 Sébastien Bézy, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Imanol Harinordoquy, 6 Yannick Nyanga (c), 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Joe Tekori, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Vasil Kakovin
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Kisi Pulu, 18 Neemia Tialata, 19 Thierry Dusautoir, 20 Edwin Maka, 21 Jano Vermaak, 22 Florian Fritz, 23 Yoann Huget
Glasgow: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Alex Dunbar, 12 Peter Horne, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Henry Pyrgos, 8 Josh Strauss (c), 7 Chris Fusaro, 6 Robert Harley, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Leone Nakarawa, 3 Jon Welsh, 2 Pat MacArthur, 1 Ryan Grant
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Rossouw de Klerk, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Ryan Wilson, 21 Niko Matawalu, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Richie Vernon
Leicester v Toulon
In the summer, Richard Cockerill stated that defence was an area that he wanted the club to improve in. The number of backline injuries did rob the side of consistency throughout most of the previous campaign, but he still identified issues with aggression and urgency off the ball. Coach Phil Blake was brought in for this season and while there were early problems at Bath (45 points conceded) and Gloucester (30 points 1st half), there were positive signs recently, particularly in the LV Cup.
Attention has now switched to the attack, with Paul Burke leaving his role at the end of October and the announcement that Aaron Mauger will join as head coach for next season. It does mean that Cockerill have another more experienced coach in the set-up which Leicester have likely missed since O’Connor joined Leinster. Mauger’s arrival will also assist with Murphy’s coaching education.
That may be the long-term plan but there will also need to be a solution found for the current attacking form. Leicester scored 3 points away at Scarlets in round 2 and have managed 13 tries in 9 league matches (with 4 coming against London Welsh and 4 against Newcastle in round 1). At home, Tigers have scored 2 tries in their previous 4 home league matches with the last coming 237 minutes ago.
Leicester have 18 wins and a draw from their previous 20 European home games – the loss coming against Ulster last season. The last French side to win at Welford Road in this competition was Toulouse in the semi-final of the 2004-5 season – since then it has been 10 wins and a draw by an average score of 30-18. They have been knocked out of Europe in the previous 2 seasons by Clermont and Toulon. Both were low scoring games and it might be that this contest is a similar affair. Toulon have scored 4/44 league tries in the opening 20 minutes this season and Leicester 1/13.
Toulon have won 18 of their previous 20 matches in Europe, with an average score of 37-17 at home and 17-13 away. Their previous 10 European matches away from the Stade Mayol have seen an average of 30 points, with all 10 games going under 37 points. The last time they conceded a 1st half try in an away game was at Montpellier in round 6 of the 2012-13 season.
The away win at Ulster in round d 2 gave a good example of why Toulon have won the cup in consecutive seasons. Early injuries to Lobbe and Giteau were mitigated by being able to bring on Smith and O’Connor. Toulon won penalties via the scrum and as Rory Best put it, “destroyed” Ulster at the breakdown through Masoe and Armitage. They also showed their ability to quickly shift up the gears from just grinding an opponent down, to scoring the type of well executed try that the likes of Kieran Read and co, manage at International level.
This was the sort of match that Leicester recruited Brad Thorn for and his presence along with the return of Tom Youngs, Cole, Parling are significant. Clermont showed the importance of winning the collisions against Munster and the hosts will be aware that nullifying that powerful Toulon backrow is going to be key.
It isn’t often that Leicester are underdogs (as big as 2.85 in places) at home and that will act as motivation. Having pushed Toulon and Clermont away in the past, they shouldn’t be written off here. Injuries to Giteau and Halfpenny means there is plenty of pressure on Sanchez in his 3rd game for this visitors and they are a knock away from having Escande involved.
Toulon’s previous 8 away games in this competition have gone under 37 points, so under 40.5 may appeal here and would expect the 1-12 margin at 2.5 to also be popular. Am going to risk opposing the visitors though and back Tigers +4
Steffon Armitage scored 5 tries in 11 Prem matches against Leicester and is available at 5.5 anytime scorer.
Leicester: 15 Matthew Tait, 14 Blaine Scully, 13 Matt Smith, 12 Anthony Allen, 11 Vereniki Goneva, 10 Owen Williams, 9 Ben Youngs (c), 8 Jordan Crane, 7 Julian Salvi, 6 Jamie Gibson, 5 Graham Kitchener, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Marcos Ayerza
Replacements: 16 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 17 Michele Rizzo, 18 Fraser Balmain, 19 Geoff Parling, 20 Robert Barbieri, 21 Sam Harrison, 22 Freddie Burns, 23 Miles Benjamin
Toulon: 15 Delon Armitage, 14 Drew Mitchell, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Sebastien Tillous-Borde, 8 Chris Masoe (c), 7 Steffon Armitage, 6 Mamuka Gorgodze, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Xavier Chiocci
Replacements: 16 Jean-Charles Orioli, 17 Florian Fresia, 18 Carl Hayman, 19 Juan Smith, 20 Rudi Wulf, 21 Jocelino Suta, 22 Eric Escande, 23 Romain Taofifenua
'Orrible Punt 